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REVENUE FORECAST AND BUDGET OUTLOOK

FRD_ConsensusRevenueBudgetOutlook

CONSENSUS

CONSENSUS FORECAST 2017- 2019 Biennium • During the upcoming biennium, key collections from Sales and Personal Income are expected to track at the long-run average pace (baseline). • Personal Income – employment gains begin to put upward pressure on wages - Wage growth projected at 5.2% and 5.7%, respective fiscal years - 2.0% and 4.7% growth in collections - Growth rates reflect tax reductions enacted in 2015 and 2016 14

CONSENSUS FORECAST 2017- 2019 Biennium • Sales tax growth projected to be slightly above average - First time forecast has Sales growing faster than averages since onset of recession in 2008 • Corporate Income tax is always volatile and while a smaller part of the overall tax structure with the lower rate, still a contributor to forecast error - Decline 9.8% in FY 2017-18, grow 4.6% in FY 2018-19 15

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