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1 year ago

REVENUE FORECAST AND BUDGET OUTLOOK

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CONSENSUS

CONSENSUS FORECAST FY 2016-17 Revenue • No shift, up or down, in growth trends for secondhalf of fiscal year • Important assumption is that April expectations for refunds and final payments are met - Estimated income tax payments made on the 2016 tax year provide little information on April outcomes • Added complexity from recent income tax changes - Withholding changes (0.1% more withheld) - Increases in Standard Deduction in 2016, 2017 12

CONSENSUS FORECAST 2017- 2019 Biennium • “Steady as she goes” – economic conditions driving forecast are similar to the last biennium forecast. • Forecasters maintained the cautious approach adopted with recent consensus forecast as a result of, what is now, a combined $2+ billion in tax law changes – - Since 2013, 105 substantive changes enacted - Includes base expansions (+) and rate reductions (-) 13

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