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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 power sector consists of electric utilities and independent power producers whose primary business is the production of electricity, while the other sectors consist of those producers that indicate their primary business is something other than the production of electricity. 13 The industrial, residential, and commercial end-use sectors, as presented in Table 3-8, were reliant on electricity for meeting energy needs. The residential and commercial end-use sectors were especially reliant on electricity consumption for lighting, heating, air conditioning, and operating appliances. In 2015, electricity sales to the residential end-use sector decreased by 0.5 percent and sales to the commercial end-use sector increased by 0.5 percent, respectively. The trend in the residential sector can largely be attributed to warmer, less energy-intensive winter conditions while the trend in the commercial sector can largely be attributed to a growing economy compared to 2014. Electricity sales to the industrial sector in 2015 decreased approximately 3.4 percent. Overall, in 2015, the amount of electricity generated (in kWh) and the amount of electricity consumed (in kWh) decreased approximately 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, relative to the previous year, while CO 2 emissions from the electric power sector decreased by 6.7 percent. The decrease in CO 2 emissions was a result of a significant decrease in the consumption of coal and increase in the consumption of natural gas for electricity generation by 13.9 percent and 18.7 percent, respectively, in 2015, and a decrease in the consumption of petroleum for electricity generation by 6.6 percent. Industrial Sector Industrial sector CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O, emissions accounted for 16, 16, and 6 percent of CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O, emissions from fossil fuel combustion, respectively. Carbon dioxide, CH 4, and N 2O emissions resulted from the direct consumption of fossil fuels for steam and process heat production. The industrial sector, per the underlying energy consumption data from EIA, includes activities such as manufacturing, construction, mining, and agriculture. The largest of these activities in terms of energy consumption is manufacturing, of which six industries—Petroleum Refineries, Chemicals, Paper, Primary Metals, Food, and Nonmetallic Mineral Products—represent the vast majority of the energy use (EIA 2016a and EIA 2009b). In theory, emissions from the industrial sector should be highly correlated with economic growth and industrial output, but heating of industrial buildings and agricultural energy consumption are also affected by weather conditions. 14 In addition, structural changes within the U.S. economy that lead to shifts in industrial output away from energy-intensive manufacturing products to less energy-intensive products (e.g., from steel to computer equipment) also have a significant effect on industrial emissions. From 2014 to 2015, total industrial production and manufacturing output increased by 0.3 percent (FRB 2016). Over this period, output increased across production indices for Food, Petroleum Refineries, Chemicals, and Nonmetallic Mineral Products, and decreased slightly for Primary Metals and Paper (see Figure 3-11). Through EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP), specific industrial sector trends can be discerned from the overall total EIA industrial fuel consumption data used for these calculations. For example, from 2013 to 2014 the underlying EIA data showed increased consumption of natural gas and a decrease in petroleum fuels in the industrial sector. EPA’s GHGRP data highlights that chemical manufacturing and nonmetallic mineral products were contributors to these trends. 15,16 13 Utilities primarily generate power for the U.S. electric grid for sale to retail customers. Nonutilities produce electricity for their own use, to sell to large consumers, or to sell on the wholesale electricity market (e.g., to utilities for distribution and resale to customers). 14 Some commercial customers are large enough to obtain an industrial price for natural gas and/or electricity and are consequently grouped with the industrial end-use sector in U.S. energy statistics. These misclassifications of large commercial customers likely cause the industrial end-use sector to appear to be more sensitive to weather conditions. 15 Further details on industrial sector combustion emissions are provided by EPA’s GHGRP. See . 16 U.S. EPA GHGRP 2015 data is not yet available. As a result, contributors to industrial trends have not yet been identified in the current Inventory and will be updated for the final Inventory report. 3-16 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 Figure 3-11: Industrial Production Indices (Index 2007=100) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Despite the growth in industrial output (62 percent) and the overall U.S. economy (83 percent) from 1990 to 2015, CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in the industrial sector decreased by 1.6 percent over the same time series. A number of factors are believed to have caused this disparity between growth in industrial output and decrease in industrial emissions, including: (1) more rapid growth in output from less energy-intensive industries relative to traditional manufacturing industries, and (2) energy-intensive industries such as steel are employing new methods, such as electric arc furnaces, that are less carbon intensive than the older methods. In 2015, CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O emissions from fossil fuel combustion and electricity use within the industrial end-use sector totaled 1,378.2 MMT CO 2 Eq., a 2.9 percent decrease from 2014 emissions. Residential and Commercial Sectors Residential and commercial sector CO 2 emissions accounted for 6 and 4 percent of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, CH 4 emissions accounted for 43 and 12 percent of CH 4 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and N 2O emissions accounted for 2 and 1 percent of N 2O emissions from fossil fuel combustion, respectively. Emissions Energy 3-17

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 2 3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (10,828 kt) (see

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    Note that the relative uncertainty

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    Land Converted to Forest Land (92.0

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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