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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 (EPA 2010). A discussion of the methodology used to develop the C content coefficients are presented in Annexes 2.1 and 2.2. 8. Estimate CO 2 Emissions. Total CO 2 emissions are the product of the adjusted energy consumption (from the previous methodology steps 1 through 6), the C content of the fuels consumed, and the fraction of C that is oxidized. The fraction oxidized was assumed to be 100 percent for petroleum, coal, and natural gas based on guidance in IPCC (2006) (see Annex 2.1). 9. Allocate transportation emissions by vehicle type. This report provides a more detailed accounting of emissions from transportation because it is such a large consumer of fossil fuels in the United States. For fuel types other than jet fuel, fuel consumption data by vehicle type and transportation mode were used to allocate emissions by fuel type calculated for the transportation end-use sector. Heat contents and densities were obtained from EIA (2016a) and USAF (1998). 39 For on-road vehicles, annual estimates of combined motor gasoline and diesel fuel consumption by vehicle category were obtained from FHWA (1996 through 2016); for each vehicle category, the percent gasoline, diesel, and other (e.g., CNG, LPG) fuel consumption are estimated using data from DOE (1993 through 2016). 40,41 For non-road vehicles, activity data were obtained from AAR (2008 through 2016), APTA (2007 through 2016), APTA (2006), BEA (2016), Benson (2002 through 2004), DOE (1993 through 2016), DLA Energy (2016), DOC (1991 through 2016), DOT (1991 through 2016), EIA (2009a), EIA (2016a), EIA (2013), EIA (1991 through 2016), EPA (2016d), 42 and Gaffney (2007). For jet fuel used by aircraft, CO 2 emissions from commercial aircraft were developed by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) using a Tier 3B methodology, consistent IPCC (2006) (see Annex 3.3). Carbon dioxide emissions from other aircraft were calculated directly based on reported consumption of fuel as reported by EIA. Allocation to domestic military uses was made using DoD data (see Annex 3.8). General aviation jet fuel consumption is calculated as the remainder of total jet fuel use (as determined by EIA) nets all other jet fuel use as determined by FAA and DoD. For more information, see Annex 3.2. Box 3-4: Uses of Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program Data and Improvements in Reporting Emissions from Industrial Sector Fossil Fuel Combustion – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT As described in the calculation methodology, total fossil fuel consumption for each year is based on aggregated enduse sector consumption published by the EIA. The availability of facility-level combustion emissions through EPA’s 39 For a more detailed description of the data sources used for the analysis of the transportation end use sector see the Mobile Combustion (excluding CO2) and International Bunker Fuels sections of the Energy chapter, Annex 3.2, and Annex 3.8, respectively. 40 Data from FHWA’s Table VM-1 is used to estimate the share of fuel consumption between each on-road vehicle class. Since VM-1 data for 2015 has not been published yet, fuel consumption shares from 2014 are used as a proxy for the current Inventory. These fuel consumption estimates are combined with estimates of fuel shares by vehicle type from DOE’s TEDB Annex Tables A.1 through A.6 (DOE 1993 through 2016). TEDB data for 2015 has not been published yet, therefore 2014 data is used as a proxy. In 2011, FHWA changed its methods for estimating data in the VM-1 table. These methodological changes included how vehicles are classified, moving from a system based on body-type to one that is based on wheelbase. These changes were first incorporated for the 1990 through 2010 Inventory and apply to the 2007 through 2015 time period. This resulted in large changes in VMT and fuel consumption data by vehicle class, thus leading to a shift in emissions among on-road vehicle classes. 41 Transportation sector natural gas and LPG consumption are based on data from EIA (2016). In prior Inventory years, data from DOE TEDB was used to estimate each vehicle class’s share of the total natural gas and LPG consumption. Since TEDB does not include estimates for natural gas use by medium and heavy duty trucks or LPG use by passenger cars, EIA Alternative Fuel Vehicle Data (Browning 2016) is now used to determine each vehicle class’s share of the total natural gas and LPG consumption. These changes were first incorporated in this year’s Inventory and apply to the 1990 to 2015 time period. 42 In 2015, EPA incorporated the NONROAD2008 model into MOVES2014. The current Inventory uses the NONROAD component of MOVES2014a for years 1999 through 2015. 3-28 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) has provided an opportunity to better characterize the industrial sector’s energy consumption and emissions in the United States, through a disaggregation of EIA’s industrial sector fuel consumption data from select industries. For EPA’s GHGRP 2010 through 2015 reporting years, facility-level fossil fuel combustion emissions reported through the GHGRP were categorized and distributed to specific industry types by utilizing facility-reported NAICS codes (as published by the U.S. Census Bureau). As noted previously in this report, the definitions and provisions for reporting fuel types in EPA’s GHGRP include some differences from the Inventory’s use of EIA national fuel statistics to meet the UNFCCC reporting guidelines. The IPCC has provided guidance on aligning facility-level reported fuels and fuel types published in national energy statistics, which guided this exercise. 43 This year’s effort represents an attempt to align, reconcile, and coordinate the facility-level reporting of fossil fuel combustion emissions under EPA’s GHGRP with the national-level approach presented in this report. Consistent with recommendations for reporting the Inventory to the UNFCCC, progress was made on certain fuel types for specific industries and has been included in the Common Reporting Format (CRF) tables that are submitted to the UNFCCC along with this report. 44 For the current exercise, the efforts in reconciling fuels focused on standard, common fuel types (e.g., natural gas, distillate fuel oil, etc.) where the fuels in EIA’s national statistics aligned well with facility-level GHGRP data. For these reasons, the current information presented in the CRF tables should be viewed as an initial attempt at this exercise. Additional efforts will be made for future Inventory reports to improve the mapping of fuel types, and examine ways to reconcile and coordinate any differences between facility-level data and national statistics. Additionally, this year’s analysis expanded this effort through the full time series presented in the CRF tables. Analyses were conducted linking GHGRP facility-level reporting with the information published by EIA in its MECS data in order to disaggregate the full 1990 through 2015 time series in the CRF tables. It is believed that the current analysis has led to improvements in the presentation of data in the Inventory, but further work will be conducted, and future improvements will be realized in subsequent Inventory reports. Additionally, to assist in the disaggregation of industrial fuel consumption, EIA will now synthesize energy consumption data using the same procedure as is used for the last historical (benchmark) year of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). This procedure reorganizes the most recent data from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) (conducted every four years) into the nominal data submission year using the same energyeconomy integrated model used to produce the AEO projections, the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). EIA believes this “nowcasting” technique provides an appropriate estimate of energy consumption for the CRF. To address gaps in the time series, EIA performs a NEMS model projection, using the MECS baseline sub-sector energy consumption. The NEMS model accounts for changes in factors that influence industrial sector energy consumption, and has access to data which may be more recent than MECS, such as industrial sub-sector macro industrial output (i.e., shipments) and fuel prices. By evaluating the impact of these factors on industrial subsector energy consumption, NEMS can anticipate changes to the energy shares occurring post-MECS and can provide a way to appropriately disaggregate the energy-related emissions data into the CRF. While the fuel consumption values for the various manufacturing sub-sectors are not directly surveyed for all years, they represent EIA’s best estimate of historical consumption values for non-MECS years. Moreover, as an integral part of each AEO publication, this synthetic data series is likely to be maintained consistent with all available EIA and non-EIA data sources even as the underlying data sources evolve for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries alike. Other sectors’ fuel consumption (commercial, residential, transportation) will be benchmarked with the latest aggregate values from the Monthly Energy Review. 45 EIA will work with EPA to back cast these values to 1990. 43 43 See Section 4 “Use of Facility-Level Data in Good Practice National Greenhouse Gas Inventories” of the IPCC meeting report, and specifically the section on using facility-level data in conjunction with energy data, at . 44 See . 45 See . Energy 3-29

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    1 Figure 1-1: National Inventory Ar

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Electrical Transmission and Distrib

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    2013 4.1 0.3 2014 5.0 0.3 1 2 3 4 5

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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