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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Planned Improvements To reduce uncertainty of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion estimates for U.S. Territories, efforts will continue to work with EIA and other agencies to improve the quality of the U.S. Territories data. This improvement is not allinclusive, and is part of an ongoing analysis and efforts to continually improve the CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion estimates. In addition, further expert elicitation may be conducted to better quantify the total uncertainty associated with emissions from this source. The availability of facility-level combustion emissions through EPA’s GHGRP will continue to be examined to help better characterize the industrial sector’s energy consumption in the United States, and further classify total industrial sector fossil fuel combustion emissions by business establishments according to industrial economic activity type. Most methodologies used in EPA’s GHGRP are consistent with IPCC, though for EPA’s GHGRP, facilities collect detailed information specific to their operations according to detailed measurement standards, which may differ with the more aggregated data collected for the Inventory to estimate total, national U.S. emissions. In addition, and unlike the reporting requirements for this chapter under the UNFCCC reporting guidelines, some facility-level fuel combustion emissions reported under the GHGRP may also include industrial process emissions. 50 In line with UNFCCC reporting guidelines, fuel combustion emissions are included in this chapter, while process emissions are included in the Industrial Processes and Product Use chapter of this report. In examining data from EPA’s GHGRP that would be useful to improve the emission estimates for the CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion category, particular attention will also be made to ensure time series consistency, as the facilitylevel reporting data from EPA’s GHGRP are not available for all inventory years as reported in this Inventory. Additional, analyses will be conducted to align reported facility-level fuel types and IPCC fuel types per the national energy statistics. For example, efforts will be taken to incorporate updated industrial fuel consumption data from EIA’s Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS), with updated data for 2014. Additional work will look at CO 2 emissions from biomass to ensure they are separated in the facility-level reported data, and maintaining consistency with national energy statistics provided by EIA. In implementing improvements and integration of data from EPA’s GHGRP, the latest guidance from the IPCC on the use of facility-level data in national inventories will continue to be relied upon. 51 An ongoing planned improvement is to develop improved estimates of domestic waterborne fuel consumption. The Inventory estimates for residual and distillate fuel used by ships and boats is based in part on data on bunker fuel use from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Domestic fuel consumption is estimated by subtracting fuel sold for international use from the total sold in the United States. It may be possible to more accurately estimate domestic fuel use and emissions by using detailed data on marine ship activity. The feasibility of using domestic marine activity data to improve the estimates will continue to be investigated. Lastly, an additional improvement for the final 1990 to 2015 Inventory is to update estimates of 2014 CO 2 emissions from on-road gasoline consumption with FHWA’s 2014 Table MF-21 published in July 2016. Estimates in this draft Inventory are based on the 2014 Table MF-21 published in September 2015. Gasoline consumption for on-road transportation in 2014 is estimated to be higher in the more recent FHWA data, which will result in a larger decrease in on-road gasoline consumption from 2014 to 2015 than what is estimated in the current Inventory. As a result, the estimate of CO 2 emissions from the overall transportation end-use sector will likely decrease from 2014 to 2015 in the final Inventory. It is important to note, however, that the overall decrease in on-road motor gasoline consumption from 2014 to 2015 is likely due to a change in FHWA methods used to estimate the share of gasoline used in onroad and non-road applications in 2015. In absence of this method change, the estimate of on-road gasoline would likely have increased in this Inventory from 2014 to 2015. 50 See . 51 See . 3-34 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 CH 4 and N 2 O from Stationary Combustion Methodology Methane and N 2O emissions from stationary combustion were estimated by multiplying fossil fuel and wood consumption data by emission factors (by sector and fuel type for industrial, residential, commercial, and U.S. Territories; and by fuel and technology type for the electric power sector). Beginning with the current Inventory report, the electric power sector utilizes a Tier 2 methodology, whereas all other sectors utilize a Tier 1 methodology. The activity data and emission factors used are described in the following subsections. Industrial, Residential, Commercial, and U.S. Territories National coal, natural gas, fuel oil, and wood consumption data were grouped by sector: industrial, commercial, residential, and U.S. Territories. For the CH 4 and N 2O estimates, wood consumption data for the United States was obtained from EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (EIA 2016a). Fuel consumption data for coal, natural gas, and fuel oil for the United States were also obtained from EIA’s Monthly Energy Review and unpublished supplemental tables on petroleum product detail (EIA 2016a). Because the United States does not include territories in its national energy statistics, fuel consumption data for territories were provided separately by EIA’s International Energy Statistics (EIA 2014) and Jacobs (2010). 52 Fuel consumption for the industrial sector was adjusted to subtract out construction and agricultural use, which is reported under mobile sources. 53 Construction and agricultural fuel use was obtained from EPA (2016c) and FHWA (1996 through 2016). Estimates for wood biomass consumption for fuel combustion do not include wood wastes, liquors, municipal solid waste, tires, etc., that are reported as biomass by EIA. Tier 1 default emission factors for these three end-use sectors were provided by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006). U.S. Territories’ emission factors were estimated using the U.S. emission factors for the primary sector in which each fuel was combusted. Electric Power Sector The electric power sector now uses a Tier 2 emission estimation methodology as fuel consumption for the electricity generation sector by control-technology type was obtained from EPA’s Acid Rain Program Dataset (EPA 2016a). This combustion technology- and fuel-use data was available by facility from 1996 to 2015. The Tier 2 emission factors used were taken from IPCC (2006), which in turn are based on emission factors published by EPA. Since there was a difference between the EPA (2016a) and EIA (2016a) total energy consumption estimates, the remaining energy consumption from EIA (2016a) was apportioned to each combustion technology type and fuel combination using a ratio of energy consumption by technology type from 1996 to 2015. Energy consumption estimates were not available from 1990 to 1995 in the EPA (2016a) dataset, and as a result, consumption was calculated using total electric power consumption from EIA (2016a) and the ratio of combustion technology and fuel types from EPA (2016a). The consumption estimates from 1990 to 1995 were estimated by applying the 1996 consumption ratio by combustion technology type to the total EIA consumption for each year from 1990 to 1995. Emissions were estimated by multiplying fossil fuel and wood consumption by technology- and fuel-specific Tier 2 IPCC emission factors. Lastly, there were significant differences between wood biomass consumption in the electric power sector between the EPA (2016a) and EIA (2016a) datasets. The higher wood biomass consumption from EIA (2016a) in the electric power sector was distributed to the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors according to their percent share of wood biomass energy consumption calculated from EIA (2016a). 52 U.S. Territories data also include combustion from mobile activities because data to allocate territories’ energy use were unavailable. For this reason, CH4 and N2O emissions from combustion by U.S. Territories are only included in the stationary combustion totals. 53 Though emissions from construction and farm use occur due to both stationary and mobile sources, detailed data was not available to determine the magnitude from each. Currently, these emissions are assumed to be predominantly from mobile sources. Energy 3-35

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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