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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 as reported in this Inventory. In implementing improvements and integration of data from EPA’s GHGRP, the latest guidance from the IPCC on the use of facility-level data in national inventories will be relied upon. 57 CH 4 and N 2 O from Mobile Combustion Methodology Estimates of CH 4 and N 2O emissions from mobile combustion were calculated by multiplying emission factors by measures of activity for each fuel and vehicle type (e.g., light-duty gasoline trucks). Activity data included vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for on-road vehicles and fuel consumption for non-road mobile sources. The activity data and emission factors used are described in the subsections that follow. A complete discussion of the methodology used to estimate CH 4 and N 2O emissions from mobile combustion and the emission factors used in the calculations is provided in Annex 3.2. On-Road Vehicles Estimates of CH 4 and N 2O emissions from gasoline and diesel on-road vehicles are based on VMT and emission factors by vehicle type, fuel type, model year, and emission control technology. Emission estimates for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are based on VMT and emission factors by vehicle and fuel type. 58 Emission factors for gasoline and diesel on-road vehicles utilizing Tier 2 and Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) technologies were developed by ICF (2006b); all other gasoline and diesel on-road vehicle emissions factors were developed by ICF (2004). These factors were derived from EPA, California Air Resources Board (CARB) and Environment Canada laboratory test results of different vehicle and control technology types. The EPA, CARB and Environment Canada tests were designed following the Federal Test Procedure (FTP), which covers three separate driving segments, since vehicles emit varying amounts of greenhouse gases depending on the driving segment. These driving segments are: (1) a transient driving cycle that includes cold start and running emissions, (2) a cycle that represents running emissions only, and (3) a transient driving cycle that includes hot start and running emissions. For each test run, a bag was affixed to the tailpipe of the vehicle and the exhaust was collected; the content of this bag was then analyzed to determine quantities of gases present. The emissions characteristics of segment 2 were used to define running emissions, and subtracted from the total FTP emissions to determine start emissions. These were then recombined based upon the ratio of start to running emissions for each vehicle class from MOBILE6.2, an EPA emission factor model that predicts gram per mile emissions of CO 2, CO, HC, NO x, and PM from vehicles under various conditions, to approximate average driving characteristics. 59 Emission factors for AFVs were first developed by ICF (2006a) after examining Argonne National Laboratory’s GREET 1.7–Transportation Fuel Cycle Model (ANL 2006) and Lipman and Delucchi (2002). These sources describe AFV emission factors in terms of ratios to conventional vehicle emission factors. Ratios of AFV to conventional vehicle emissions factors were then applied to estimated Tier 1 emissions factors from light-duty gasoline vehicles to estimate light-duty AFVs. Emissions factors for heavy-duty AFVs were developed in relation to gasoline heavy-duty vehicles. A complete discussion of the data source and methodology used to determine emission factors from AFVs is provided in Annex 3.2. Annual VMT data for 1990 through 2015 were obtained from the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Highway Performance Monitoring System database as reported in Highway Statistics (FHWA 1996 through 2016). 60 VMT estimates were then allocated from FHWA’s vehicle categories to fuel-specific vehicle categories 57 See . 58 Alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles are those that can operate using a motor fuel other than gasoline or diesel. This includes electric or other bi-fuel or dual-fuel vehicles that may be partially powered by gasoline or diesel. 59 Additional information regarding the model can be found online at . 60 The source of VMT is FHWA Highway Statistics Table VM-1. Since Table VM-1 data for 2015 has not been published yet, 2015 VMT is estimated using the 3.5 percent increase in FHWA Traffic Volume Trends data from 2014 to 2015. In 2011, FHWA changed its methods for estimating data in the VM-1 table. These methodological changes included how vehicles are 3-38 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 using the calculated shares of vehicle fuel use for each vehicle category by fuel type reported in DOE (1993 through 2016) and information on total motor vehicle fuel consumption by fuel type from FHWA (1996 through 2016). VMT for AFVs were estimated based on Browning (2016). The age distributions of the U.S. vehicle fleet were obtained from EPA (2016b, 2000), and the average annual age-specific vehicle mileage accumulation of U.S. vehicles were obtained from EPA (2016b). Control technology and standards data for on-road vehicles were obtained from EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality (EPA 2007a, 2007b, 2000, 1998, and 1997) and Browning (2005). These technologies and standards are defined in Annex 3.2, and were compiled from EPA (1994a, 1994b, 1998, 1999a) and IPCC (2006). Non-Road Vehicles To estimate emissions from non-road vehicles, fuel consumption data were employed as a measure of activity, and multiplied by fuel-specific emission factors (in grams of N 2O and CH 4 per kilogram of fuel consumed). 61 Activity data were obtained from AAR (2008 through 2016), APTA (2007 through 2016), APTA (2006), BEA (1991 through 2015), Benson (2002 through 2004), DHS (2008), DLA Energy (2015), DOC (1991 through 2015), DOE (1993 through 2015), DOT (1991 through 2016), EIA (2002, 2007, 2016a), EIA (2007 through 2016), EIA (1991 through 2016), EPA (2016b), Esser (2003 through 2004), FAA (2017), FHWA (1996 through 2016), 62 Gaffney (2007), and Whorton (2006 through 2014). Emission factors for non-road modes were taken from IPCC (2006) and Browning (2009). Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency A quantitative uncertainty analysis was conducted for the mobile source sector using the IPCC-recommended Approach 2 uncertainty estimation methodology, Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation technique, using @RISK software. The uncertainty analysis was performed on 2015 estimates of CH 4 and N 2O emissions, incorporating probability distribution functions associated with the major input variables. For the purposes of this analysis, the uncertainty was modeled for the following four major sets of input variables: (1) VMT data, by on-road vehicle and fuel type and (2) emission factor data, by on-road vehicle, fuel, and control technology type, (3) fuel consumption, data, by non-road vehicle and equipment type, and (4) emission factor data, by non-road vehicle and equipment type. Uncertainty analyses were not conducted for NO x, CO, or NMVOC emissions. Emission factors for these gases have been extensively researched since emissions of these gases from motor vehicles are regulated in the United States, and the uncertainty in these emission estimates is believed to be relatively low. For more information, see Section 3.8 – Uncertainty Analysis of Emission Estimates. However, a much higher level of uncertainty is associated with CH 4 and N 2O emission factors due to limited emission test data, and because, unlike CO 2 emissions, the emission pathways of CH 4 and N 2O are highly complex. Mobile combustion CH 4 emissions from all mobile sources in 2015 were estimated to be between 1.7 and 2.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. at a 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of 18 percent below to 25 percent above the corresponding 2015 emission estimate of 2.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. Also at a 95 percent confidence level, mobile combustion N 2O emissions from mobile sources in 2015 were estimated to be between 13.4 and 18.1 MMT CO 2 classified, moving from a system based on body-type to one that is based on wheelbase. These changes were first incorporated for the 1990 through 2010 Inventory and apply to the 2007 through 2015 time period. This resulted in large changes in VMT by vehicle class, thus leading to a shift in emissions among on-road vehicle classes. For example, the category “Passenger Cars” has been replaced by “Light-duty Vehicles-Short Wheelbase” and “Other 2 axle-4 Tire Vehicles” has been replaced by “Light-duty Vehicles, Long Wheelbase.” This change in vehicle classification has moved some smaller trucks and sport utility vehicles from the light truck category to the passenger vehicle category in this Inventory. These changes are reflected in a large drop in lighttruck emissions between 2006 and 2007. 61 The consumption of international bunker fuels is not included in these activity data, but is estimated separately under the International Bunker Fuels source category. 62 In 2016, FHWA changed its methods for estimating the share of motor gasoline used in on-highway and off-highway applications. This resulted in an increase in the estimated off-highway motor gasoline consumption and subsequent decrease in the on-highway motor gasoline consumption for 2015. Energy 3-39

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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