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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

1 2 3 4 Eq., indicating

1 2 3 4 Eq., indicating a range of 13 percent below to 18 percent above the corresponding 2015 emission estimate of 15.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. Table 3-18: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CH4 and N2O Emissions from Mobile Sources (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate a Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Mobile Sources CH4 2.0 1.7 2.6 -18% +25% Mobile Sources N2O 15.4 13.4 18.1 -13% +18% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 This uncertainty analysis is a continuation of a multi-year process for developing quantitative uncertainty estimates for this source category using the IPCC Approach 2 uncertainty analysis. As a result, as new information becomes available, uncertainty characterization of input variables may be improved and revised. For additional information regarding uncertainty in emission estimates for CH 4 and N 2O please refer to the Uncertainty Annex. Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015 with two recent notable exceptions. First, an update to the method for estimating on-road VMT created an inconsistency in on-road CH 4 and N 2O for the time periods 1990 to 2006 and 2007 to 2015. Second, an update to the method for estimating share of motor gasoline used in on-highway and off-highway applications created an inconsistency in non-road CH 4 and N 2O for the time periods 1990 to 2014 and 2015. Details on the emission trends and methodological inconsistencies through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. QA/QC and Verification A source-specific Quality Assurance/Quality Control plan for mobile combustion was developed and implemented. This plan is based on the IPCC-recommended QA/QC Plan. The specific plan used for mobile combustion was updated prior to collection and analysis of this current year of data. This effort included a Tier 1 analysis, as well as portions of a Tier 2 analysis. The Tier 2 procedures focused on the emission factor and activity data sources, as well as the methodology used for estimating emissions. These procedures included a qualitative assessment of the emissions estimates to determine whether they appear consistent with the most recent activity data and emission factors available. A comparison of historical emissions between the current Inventory and the previous Inventory was also conducted to ensure that the changes in estimates were consistent with the changes in activity data and emission factors. Recalculations Discussion Several updates were made to on-road CH 4 and N 2O emissions calculations this year resulting in a net increase to CH 4 and N 2O emissions from mobile combustion relative to the previous Inventory. First several light-duty trucks were re-characterized as heavy-duty vehicles based upon gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) and confidential sales data. Second, which emission standards each vehicle type was assumed to have met were re-examined using confidential sales data. Also, in previous Inventories, non-plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) were considered alternative fueled vehicles and therefore were not included in the engine technology breakouts. For this Inventory, HEVs are now classified as gasoline vehicles across the entire time series. PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) continue to be considered alternative fuel vehicles, as are electric vehicles. Estimates of alternative fuel vehicle mileage for the last ten years were revised to reflect updates made to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on alternative fuel use and vehicle counts. Overall, these changes resulted in an average annual increase of 0.02 MMT CO 2 Eq. (1 percent) in CH 4 emissions and an average annual increase of 0.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. (2 percent) in N 2O emissions from mobile combustion for the period 1990 through 2014, relative to the previous report. 3-40 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Planned Improvements While the data used for this report represent the most accurate information available, several areas have been identified that could potentially be improved in the near term given available resources. Examine the 2016 FHWA off-highway gasoline methodology change–which impacted estimates of commercial, industrial, agriculture, and construction CH 4 and N 2O mobile emissions in 2015–to determine whether we should adjust other methods for estimating non-road equipment emissions. Continue to explore potential improvements to estimates of domestic waterborne fuel consumption for future Inventories. The Inventory estimates for residual and distillate fuel used by ships and boats is based in part on data on bunker fuel use from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Domestic fuel consumption is estimated by subtracting fuel sold for international use from the total sold in the United States. It may be possible to more accurately estimate domestic fuel use and emissions by using detailed data on marine ship activity. The feasibility of using domestic marine activity data to improve the estimates continues to be investigated. Additionally, the feasibility of including data from a broader range of domestic and international sources for domestic bunker fuels, including data from studies such as the Third IMO GHG Study 2014, continues to be explored. Continue to examine the use of EPA’s MOVES model in the development of the Inventory estimates, including use for uncertainty analysis. Although the Inventory uses some of the underlying data from MOVES, such as vehicle age distributions by model year, MOVES is not used directly in calculating mobile source emissions. The use of MOVES is currently being evaluated to develop new emissions factors for CH 4 and N 2O, which may be integrated into the final version of this Inventory or future inventories. Other approaches for updating CH 4 and N 2O emissions factors, including use of the latest GREET model, are also being considered. 3.2 Carbon Emitted from Non-Energy Uses of Fossil Fuels (IPCC Source Category 1A) In addition to being combusted for energy, fossil fuels are also consumed for non-energy uses (NEU) in the United States. The fuels used for these purposes are diverse, including natural gas, liquefied petroleum gases (LPG), asphalt (a viscous liquid mixture of heavy crude oil distillates), petroleum coke (manufactured from heavy oil), and coal (metallurgical) coke (manufactured from coking coal). The non-energy applications of these fuels are equally diverse, including feedstocks for the manufacture of plastics, rubber, synthetic fibers and other materials; reducing agents for the production of various metals and inorganic products; and non-energy products such as lubricants, waxes, and asphalt (IPCC 2006). Carbon dioxide emissions arise from non-energy uses via several pathways. Emissions may occur during the manufacture of a product, as is the case in producing plastics or rubber from fuel-derived feedstocks. Additionally, emissions may occur during the product’s lifetime, such as during solvent use. Overall, throughout the time series and across all uses, about 62 percent of the total C consumed for non-energy purposes was stored in products, and not released to the atmosphere; the remaining 38 percent was emitted. There are several areas in which non-energy uses of fossil fuels are closely related to other parts of this Inventory. For example, some of the NEU products release CO 2 at the end of their commercial life when they are combusted after disposal; these emissions are reported separately within the Energy chapter in the Incineration of Waste source category. In addition, there is some overlap between fossil fuels consumed for non-energy uses and the fossilderived CO 2 emissions accounted for in the Industrial Processes and Product Use chapter, especially for fuels used as reducing agents. To avoid double-counting, the “raw” non-energy fuel consumption data reported by EIA are modified to account for these overlaps. There are also net exports of petrochemicals that are not completely accounted for in the EIA data, and the Inventory calculations adjust for the effect of net exports on the mass of C in non-energy applications. Energy 3-41

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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