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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 QA/QC and Verification A source-specific Quality Assurance/Quality Control plan for non-energy uses of fossil fuels was developed and implemented. This effort included a Tier 1 analysis, as well as portions of a Tier 2 analysis for non-energy uses involving petrochemical feedstocks and for imports and exports. The Tier 2 procedures that were implemented involved checks specifically focusing on the activity data and methodology for estimating the fate of C (in terms of storage and emissions) across the various end-uses of fossil C. Emission and storage totals for the different subcategories were compared, and trends across the time series were analyzed to determine whether any corrective actions were needed. Corrective actions were taken to rectify minor errors and to improve the transparency of the calculations, facilitating future QA/QC. For petrochemical import and export data, special attention was paid to NAICS numbers and titles to verify that none had changed or been removed. Import and export totals were compared for 2014 as well as their trends across the time series. Petrochemical input data reported by EIA will continue to be investigated in an attempt to address an input/output discrepancy in the NEU model. Since 2001, the C accounted for in the feedstocks C balance outputs (i.e., storage plus emissions) exceeds C inputs. Prior to 2001, the C balance inputs exceed outputs. Starting in 2001 through 2009, outputs exceeded inputs. In 2010 and 2011, inputs exceeded outputs, and in 2012, outputs slightly exceeded inputs. A portion of this discrepancy has been reduced and two strategies have been developed to address the remaining portion (see Planned Improvements, below). Recalculations Discussion A number of updates to historical production values were included in the most recent Monthly Energy Review; these have been populated throughout this document. Planned Improvements There are several improvements planned for the future: Analyzing the fuel and feedstock data from EPA’s GHGRP to better disaggregate CO 2 emissions in NEU model and CO 2 process emissions from petrochemical production. More accurate accounting of C in petrochemical feedstocks. EPA has worked with EIA to determine the cause of input/output discrepancies in the C mass balance contained within the NEU model. In the future, two strategies to reduce or eliminate this discrepancy will continue to be pursued. First, accounting of C in imports and exports will be improved. The import/export adjustment methodology will be examined to ensure that net exports of intermediaries such as ethylene and propylene are fully accounted for. Second, the use of top-down C input calculation in estimating emissions will be reconsidered. Alternative approaches that rely more substantially on the bottom-up C output calculation will be considered instead. Response to potential changes in NEU input data. In 2013 EIA initiated implementation of new data reporting definitions for Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) and Liquefied Petroleum Gases (LPG); the new definitions may affect the characterization of the input data that EIA provides for the NEU model and may therefore result in the need for changes to the NEU methodology. EIA also obtains and applies proprietary data for LPG inputs that are not directly applied as NEU input data because the data are proprietary. The potential use of the proprietary data (in an aggregated, non-proprietary form) as inputs to the NEU model will be investigated with EIA. Improving the uncertainty analysis. Most of the input parameter distributions are based on professional judgment rather than rigorous statistical characterizations of uncertainty. Better characterizing flows of fossil C. Additional fates may be researched, including the fossil C load in organic chemical wastewaters, plasticizers, adhesives, films, paints, and coatings. There is also a need to further clarify the treatment of fuel additives and backflows (especially methyl tert-butyl ether, MTBE). Reviewing the trends in fossil fuel consumption for non-energy uses. Annual consumption for several fuel 3-46 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 types is highly variable across the time series, including industrial coking coal and other petroleum (miscellaneous products). A better understanding of these trends will be pursued to identify any mischaracterized or misreported fuel consumption for non-energy uses. For example, “miscellaneous products” category includes miscellaneous products that are not reported elsewhere in the EIA data set. The EIA does not have firm data concerning the amounts of various products that are being reported in the “miscellaneous products” category; however, EIA has indicated that recovered sulfur from petroleum and natural gas processing, and potentially also C black feedstock could be reported in this category. Recovered sulfur would not be reported in the NEU calculation or elsewhere in the Inventory. Updating the average C content of solvents was researched, since the entire time series depends on one year’s worth of solvent composition data. The data on C emissions from solvents that were readily available do not provide composition data for all categories of solvent emissions and also have conflicting definitions for volatile organic compounds, the source of emissive C in solvents. Additional sources of solvents data will be investigated in order to update the C content assumptions. Updating the average C content of cleansers (soaps and detergents) was researched; although production and consumption data for cleansers are published every 5 years by the Census Bureau, the composition (C content) of cleansers has not been recently updated. Recently available composition data sources may facilitate updating the average C content for this category. Revising the methodology for consumption, production, and C content of plastics was researched; because of recent changes to the type of data publicly available for plastics, the NEU model for plastics applies data obtained from personal communications. Potential revisions to the plastics methodology to account for the recent changes in published data will be investigated. Although U.S.-specific storage factors have been developed for feedstocks, asphalt, lubricants, and waxes, default values from IPCC are still used for two of the non-energy fuel types (industrial coking coal, distillate oil), and broad assumptions are being used for miscellaneous products and other petroleum. Over the long term, there are plans to improve these storage factors by analyzing C fate similar to those described in Annex 2.3 or deferring to more updated default storage factors from IPCC where available. Reviewing the storage of carbon black across various sectors in the Inventory; in particular, the carbon black abraded and stored in tires. 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Box 3-6: Reporting of Lubricants, Waxes, and Asphalt and Road Oil Product Use in Energy Sector IPCC (2006) provides methodological guidance to estimate emissions from the first use of fossil fuels as a product for primary purposes other than combustion for energy purposes (including lubricants, paraffin waxes, bitumen / asphalt, and solvents) under the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector. 65 In this Inventory, C storage and C emissions from product use of lubricants, waxes, and asphalt and road oil are reported under the Energy sector in the Carbon Emitted from Non-Energy Uses of Fossil Fuels source category (IPCC Source Category 1A). 66 The emissions are reported in the Energy sector, as opposed to the IPPU sector, to reflect national circumstances in its choice of methodology and to increase transparency of this source category’s unique country-specific data sources and methodology. The country-specific methodology used for the Carbon Emitted from Non-Energy Uses of Fossil Fuels source category is based on a carbon balance (i.e., C inputs-outputs) calculation of the aggregate amount of fossil fuels used for non-energy uses, including inputs of lubricants, waxes, asphalt and road oil (see Section 3.2, Table 3-21). For those inputs, U.S. country-specific data on C stocks and flows are used to develop carbon storage factors, which are calculated as the ratio of the C stored by the fossil fuel non-energy products to the total C content of the fuel consumed, taking into account losses in the production process and during product use. 67 65 See Volume 3: Industrial Processes and Product Use, Chapter 5: Non-Energy Products from Fuels and Solvent Use of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006). 66 Non-methane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) emissions from solvent use are reported separately in the IPPU sector, following Chapter 5 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. 67 Data and calculations for lubricants and waxes and asphalt and road oil are in Annex 2.3 – Methodology and Data for Estimating CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion. Energy 3-47

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Electrical Transmission and Distrib

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 2 3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (10,828 kt) (see

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    1 2 3 4 5 above the 2015 stock chan

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    On-site 70 71 60 53 50 50 49 N2O (O

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    1 2 3 4 result in cessation of emis

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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