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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 is the average of 1998 and 2002 values; and C content for 2002 to date is based on the 2002 value. Carbon content for synthetic fibers was calculated from a weighted average of production statistics from 1990 to date. Information about scrap tire composition was taken from the Rubber Manufacturers’ Association internet site (RMA 2012a). The mass of incinerated material is multiplied by its C content to calculate the total amount of carbon stored. The assumption that 98 percent of organic C is oxidized (which applies to all waste incineration categories for CO 2 emissions) was reported in EPA’s life cycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks from management of solid waste (EPA 2006). This percentage is multiplied by the carbon stored to estimate the amount of carbon emitted. Incineration of waste, including MSW, also results in emissions of CH 4 and N 2O. These emissions were calculated as a function of the total estimated mass of waste incinerated and emission factors. As noted above, CH 4 and N 2O emissions are a function of total waste incinerated in each year; for 1990 through 2008, these data were derived from the information published in BioCycle (van Haaren et al. 2010). Data for 2009 and 2010 were interpolated between 2008 and 2011 values. Data for 2011 were derived from Shin (2014). Data on total waste incinerated was not available in the BioCycle data set for 2012 through 2015, so these values were assumed to equal the 2011 Biocycle data set value. Table 3-26 provides data on municipal solid waste discarded and percentage combusted for the total waste stream. The emission factors of N 2O and CH 4 emissions per quantity of municipal solid waste combusted are default emission factors for the default continuously-fed stoker unit MSW incineration technology type and were taken from IPCC (2006). Table 3-26: Municipal Solid Waste Generation (Metric Tons) and Percent Combusted (BioCycle dataset) Incinerated (% of Year Waste Discarded Waste Incinerated Discards) 1990 235,733,657 30,632,057 13.0% 2005 259,559,787 25,973,520 10.0% 2011 273,116,704 20,756,870 7.6% 2012 273,116,704 a 20,756,870 7.6% 2013 273,116,704 a 20,756,870 7.6% 2014 273,116,704 a 20,756,870 7.6% 2015 273,116,704 a 20,756,870 7.6% a Assumed equal to 2011 value. Source: van Haaren et al. (2010) 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT An Approach 2 Monte Carlo analysis was performed to determine the level of uncertainty surrounding the estimates of CO 2 emissions and N 2O emissions from the incineration of waste (given the very low emissions for CH 4, no uncertainty estimate was derived). IPCC Approach 2 analysis allows the specification of probability density functions for key variables within a computational structure that mirrors the calculation of the Inventory estimate. Uncertainty estimates and distributions for waste generation variables (i.e., plastics, synthetic rubber, and textiles generation) were obtained through a conversation with one of the authors of the Municipal Solid Waste in the United States reports. Statistical analyses or expert judgments of uncertainty were not available directly from the information sources for the other variables; thus, uncertainty estimates for these variables were determined using assumptions based on source category knowledge and the known uncertainty estimates for the waste generation variables. The uncertainties in the waste incineration emission estimates arise from both the assumptions applied to the data and from the quality of the data. Key factors include MSW incineration rate; fraction oxidized; missing data on 3-50 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 waste composition; average C content of waste components; assumptions on the synthetic/biogenic C ratio; and combustion conditions affecting N 2O emissions. The highest levels of uncertainty surround the variables that are based on assumptions (e.g., percent of clothing and footwear composed of synthetic rubber); the lowest levels of uncertainty surround variables that were determined by quantitative measurements (e.g., combustion efficiency, C content of C black). The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 3-27. Waste incineration CO 2 emissions in 2014 were estimated to be between 8.5 and 11.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. at a 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of 10 percent below to 14 percent above the 2014 emission estimate of 9.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. Also at a 95 percent confidence level, waste incineration N 2O emissions in 2014 were estimated to be between 0.1 and 0.8 MMT CO 2 Eq. This indicates a range of 53 percent below to 163 percent above the 2014 emission estimate of 0.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. Table 3-27: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CO2 and N2O from the Incineration of Waste (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) 2014 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a Source Gas (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Incineration of Waste CO2 9.4 8.5 11.5 -10% +14% Incineration of Waste N2O 0.3 0.1 0.8 -53% +163% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. QA/QC and Verification A source-specific Quality Assurance/Quality Control plan was implemented for incineration of waste. This effort included a Tier 1 analysis, as well as portions of a Tier 2 analysis. The Tier 2 procedures that were implemented involved checks specifically focusing on the activity data and specifically focused on the emission factor and activity data sources and methodology used for estimating emissions from incineration of waste. Trends across the time series were analyzed to determine whether any corrective actions were needed. Actions were taken to streamline the activity data throughout the calculations on incineration of waste. Recalculations Discussion For the current Inventory, emission estimates for 2014 have been updated based on Advancing Sustainable Materials Management: 2014 Fact Sheet (EPA 2016). The data used to calculate the percent incineration was not updated in the current Inventory. Biocycle has not released a new State of Garbage in America Report since 2010 (with 2008 data), which used to be a semi-annual publication which publishes the results of the nation-wide MSW survey. The results of the survey have been published in Shin (2014). This provided updated incineration data for 2011, so the generation and incineration data for 2012 through 2015 are assumed equivalent to the 2011 values. The data for 2009 and 2010 were based on interpolations between 2008 and 2011. A transcription error in 2013 plastics production data from EPA’s Advancing Sustainable Materials Management: Facts and Figures 2013: Assessing Trends in Material Generation, Recycling and Disposal in the United States (EPA 2015) was identified and corrected. The amount of HDPE discarded in 2013 was misreported and the value has been updated. This update results in updated emission estimate for the CO 2 from Plastics for 2013. Previously, the carbon content for synthetic fiber was assumed to be the weighted average of carbon contents of four fiber types (polyester, nylon, olefin, and acrylic) based on 1999 fiber production data. This methodology has been updated. A weighted average for the carbon content of synthetic fibers based on production data from 1990 through 2015 was developed for each year based on the amount of fiber produced. For each year, the weighted average Energy 3-51

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Heavy-Duty Trucks
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