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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Step 2: Estimate CH4 Emitted from Surface Mines and Post-Mining Activities Mine-specific data are not available for estimating CH 4 emissions from surface coal mines or for post-mining activities. For surface mines, basin-specific coal production obtained from the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Coal Report (EIA 2016) was multiplied by basin-specific CH 4 contents (EPA 1996, 2005) and a 150 percent emission factor (to account for CH 4 from over- and under-burden) to estimate CH 4 emissions (King 1994; Saghafi 2013). For post-mining activities, basin-specific coal production was multiplied by basin-specific gas contents and a mid-range 32.5 percent emission factor for CH 4 desorption during coal transportation and storage (Creedy 1993). Basin-specific in situ gas content data were compiled from AAPG (1984) and USBM (1986). Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency A quantitative uncertainty analysis was conducted for the coal mining source category using the IPCCrecommended Approach 2 uncertainty estimation methodology. Because emission estimates from underground ventilation systems were based on actual measurement data from EPA’s GHGRP or from MSHA, uncertainty is relatively low. A degree of imprecision was introduced because the ventilation air measurements used were not continuous but rather quarterly instantaneous readings that were used to determine the average daily emissions rate for the quarter. Additionally, the measurement equipment used can be expected to have resulted in an average of 10 percent overestimation of annual CH 4 emissions (Mutmansky & Wang 2000). GHGRP data were used for a significant number of the mines that reported their own measurements to the program beginning in 2013; however, the equipment uncertainty is applied to both GHGRP and MSHA data. Estimates of CH 4 recovered by degasification systems are relatively certain for utilized CH 4 because of the availability of GHGRP data and gas sales information. Many of the recovery estimates use data on wells within 100 feet of a mined area. However, uncertainty exists concerning the radius of influence of each well. The number of wells counted, and thus the avoided emissions, may vary if the drainage area is found to be larger or smaller than estimated. EPA’s GHGRP requires weekly CH 4 monitoring of mines that report degasification systems, and continuous CH 4 monitoring is required for utilized CH 4 on- or off-site. Since 2012, GHGRP data have been used to estimate CH 4 emissions from vented degasification wells, reducing the uncertainty associated with prior MSHA estimates used for this subsource. Beginning in 2013, GHGRP data were also used for determining CH 4 recovery and use at mines without publicly available gas usage or sales records, which has reduced the uncertainty from previous estimation methods that were based on information from coal industry contacts. In 2015 a level of uncertainty was introduced with the estimated values of recovered methane from two of the mines with degasification systems. An increased level of uncertainty was applied to these two mines, but the change had little impact on the overall uncertainty. Surface mining and post-mining emissions are associated with considerably more uncertainty than underground mines, because of the difficulty in developing accurate emission factors from field measurements. However, since underground emissions constitute the majority of total coal mining emissions, the uncertainty associated with underground emissions is the primary factor that determines overall uncertainty. The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 3-31. Coal mining CH 4 emissions in 2015 were estimated to be between 53.3 and 70.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. at a 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of 12.5 percent below to 15.9 percent above the 2015 emission estimate of 60.9 MMT CO 2 Eq. Table 3-31: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CH4 Emissions from Coal Mining (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Coal mining CH4 60.9 53.3 70.6 -12.5% +15.9% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo stochastic simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 3-56 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the methodology section. Recalculations Discussion For the current Inventory, revisions were made to the 2013 and 2014 underground liberated and recovered emissions. In 2014 recovered emissions reported to GHGRP for a mine located in Virginia were too high to be valid. EPA estimated recovered emissions for this mine based on a five-year historical average. In 2016 EPA became aware of the availability of the Virginia Division of Gas and Oil Data Information System (DGO DIS) and was able to estimate recovered degasification emissions for the Virginia mine based on published well production. The well production data was more accurate than the reported values in 2013, 2014, and 2015; thus 2013 and 2014 were revised. The DGO DIS will continue to be used in future years until the GHGRP reported values can be verified for this mine. 3.5 Abandoned Underground Coal Mines (IPCC Source Category 1B1a) Underground coal mines contribute the largest share of coal mine methane (CMM) emissions, with active underground mines the leading source of underground emissions. However, mines also continue to release CH 4 after closure. As mines mature and coal seams are mined through, mines are closed and abandoned. Many are sealed and some flood through intrusion of groundwater or surface water into the void. Shafts or portals are generally filled with gravel and capped with a concrete seal, while vent pipes and boreholes are plugged in a manner similar to oil and gas wells. Some abandoned mines are vented to the atmosphere to prevent the buildup of CH 4 that may find its way to surface structures through overburden fractures. As work stops within the mines, CH 4 liberation decreases but it does not stop completely. Following an initial decline, abandoned mines can liberate CH 4 at a near-steady rate over an extended period of time, or, if flooded, produce gas for only a few years. The gas can migrate to the surface through the conduits described above, particularly if they have not been sealed adequately. In addition, diffuse emissions can occur when CH 4 migrates to the surface through cracks and fissures in the strata overlying the coal mine. The following factors influence abandoned mine emissions: Time since abandonment; Gas content and adsorption characteristics of coal; CH 4 flow capacity of the mine; Mine flooding; Presence of vent holes; and Mine seals. Annual gross abandoned mine CH 4 emissions ranged from 7.2 to 10.8 MMT CO 2 Eq. from 1990 through 2015, varying, in general, by less than 1 percent to approximately 19 percent from year to year. Fluctuations were due mainly to the number of mines closed during a given year as well as the magnitude of the emissions from those mines when active. Gross abandoned mine emissions peaked in 1996 (10.8 MMT CO 2 Eq.) due to the large number of gassy mine 74 closures from 1994 to 1996 (72 gassy mines closed during the three-year period). In spite of this rapid rise, abandoned mine emissions have been generally on the decline since 1996. Since 2002, there have been fewer than twelve gassy mine closures each year. There were six gassy mine closures in 2015. In 2015, gross abandoned mine emissions increased slightly from 8.7 to 9.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. (see Table 3-32 and Table 3-33). Gross emissions are reduced by CH 4 recovered and used at 40 mines, resulting in net emissions in 2015 of 6.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. 74 A mine is considered a “gassy” mine if it emits more than 100 thousand cubic feet of CH4 per day (100 mcfd). Energy 3-57

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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