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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

1 2 3 Table 3-32: CH4

1 2 3 Table 3-32: CH4 Emissions from Abandoned Coal Mines (MMT CO2 Eq.) Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Abandoned Underground Mines 7.2 8.4 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.7 9.0 Recovered & Used + 1.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 Total 7.2 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq. Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Table 3-33: CH4 Emissions from Abandoned Coal Mines (kt) Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Abandoned Underground Mines 288 334 373 358 353 350 359 Recovered & Used + 70 116 109 104 97 102 Total 288 264 257 249 249 253 256 + Does not exceed 0.5 kt Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Methodology Estimating CH 4 emissions from an abandoned coal mine requires predicting the emissions of a mine from the time of abandonment through the inventory year of interest. The flow of CH 4 from the coal to the mine void is primarily dependent on the mine’s emissions when active and the extent to which the mine is flooded or sealed. The CH 4 emission rate before abandonment reflects the gas content of the coal, the rate of coal mining, and the flow capacity of the mine in much the same way as the initial rate of a water-free conventional gas well reflects the gas content of the producing formation and the flow capacity of the well. A well or a mine which produces gas from a coal seam and the surrounding strata will produce less gas through time as the reservoir of gas is depleted. Depletion of a reservoir will follow a predictable pattern depending on the interplay of a variety of natural physical conditions imposed on the reservoir. The depletion of a reservoir is commonly modeled by mathematical equations and mapped as a type curve. Type curves which are referred to as decline curves have been developed for abandoned coal mines. Existing data on abandoned mine emissions through time, although sparse, appear to fit the hyperbolic type of decline curve used in forecasting production from natural gas wells. In order to estimate CH 4 emissions over time for a given abandoned mine, it is necessary to apply a decline function, initiated upon abandonment, to that mine. In the analysis, mines were grouped by coal basin with the assumption that they will generally have the same initial pressures, permeability and isotherm. As CH 4 leaves the system, the reservoir pressure (Pr) declines as described by the isotherm’s characteristics. The emission rate declines because the mine pressure (Pw) is essentially constant at atmospheric pressure for a vented mine, and the productivity index (PI), which is expressed as the flow rate per unit of pressure change, is essentially constant at the pressures of interest (atmospheric to 30 psia). The CH 4 flow rate is determined by the laws of gas flow through porous media, such as Darcy’s Law. A rate-time equation can be generated that can be used to predict future emissions. This decline through time is hyperbolic in nature and can be empirically expressed as: q = q i (1 + bD i t) (−1/b) where, q = Gas flow rate at time t in million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) q i = Initial gas flow rate at time zero (t o), mmcfd b = The hyperbolic exponent, dimensionless D i = Initial decline rate, 1/yr t = Elapsed time from t o (years) This equation is applied to mines of various initial emission rates that have similar initial pressures, permeability and adsorption isotherms (EPA 2004). 3-58 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 The decline curves created to model the gas emission rate of coal mines must account for factors that decrease the rate of emissions after mining activities cease, such as sealing and flooding. Based on field measurement data, it was assumed that most U.S. mines prone to flooding will become completely flooded within eight years and therefore will no longer have any measurable CH 4 emissions. Based on this assumption, an average decline rate for flooded mines was established by fitting a decline curve to emissions from field measurements. An exponential equation was developed from emissions data measured at eight abandoned mines known to be filling with water located in two of the five basins. Using a least squares, curve-fitting algorithm, emissions data were matched to the exponential equation shown below. There was not enough data to establish basin-specific equations as was done with the vented, non-flooding mines (EPA 2004). where, q = q i e (−Dt) q = Gas flow rate at time t in mmcfd q i = Initial gas flow rate at time zero (t o), mmcfd D = Decline rate, 1/yr t = Elapsed time from to (years) Seals have an inhibiting effect on the rate of flow of CH 4 into the atmosphere compared to the flow rate that would exist if the mine had an open vent. The total volume emitted will be the same, but emissions will occur over a longer period of time. The methodology, therefore, treats the emissions prediction from a sealed mine similarly to the emissions prediction from a vented mine, but uses a lower initial rate depending on the degree of sealing. A computational fluid dynamics simulator was used with the conceptual abandoned mine model to predict the decline curve for inhibited flow. The percent sealed is defined as 100 × (1 – [initial emissions from sealed mine / emission rate at abandonment prior to sealing]). Significant differences are seen between 50 percent, 80 percent and 95 percent closure. These decline curves were therefore used as the high, middle, and low values for emissions from sealed mines (EPA 2004). For active coal mines, those mines producing over 100 thousand cubic feet per day (mcfd) account for about 98 percent of all CH 4 emissions. This same relationship is assumed for abandoned mines. It was determined that the 524 abandoned mines closed after 1972 produced emissions greater than 100 mcfd when active. Further, the status of 302 of the 524 mines (or 58 percent) is known to be either: 1) vented to the atmosphere; 2) sealed to some degree (either earthen or concrete seals); or, 3) flooded (enough to inhibit CH 4 flow to the atmosphere). The remaining 42 percent of the mines whose status is unknown were placed in one of these three categories by applying a probability distribution analysis based on the known status of other mines located in the same coal basin (EPA 2004). Table 3-34: Number of Gassy Abandoned Mines Present in U.S. Basins in 2015, grouped by Class according to Post-Abandonment State Basin Sealed Vented Flooded Total Known Unknown Total Mines Central Appl. 40 26 52 118 143 261 Illinois 34 3 14 51 30 81 Northern Appl. 46 22 16 84 39 123 Warrior Basin 0 0 16 16 0 16 Western Basins 28 3 2 33 10 43 Total 148 54 100 302 222 524 Inputs to the decline equation require the average emission rate and the date of abandonment. Generally this data is available for mines abandoned after 1971; however, such data are largely unknown for mines closed before 1972. Information that is readily available, such as coal production by state and county, is helpful but does not provide enough data to directly employ the methodology used to calculate emissions from mines abandoned before 1972. It is assumed that pre-1972 mines are governed by the same physical, geologic, and hydrologic constraints that apply to post-1971 mines; thus, their emissions may be characterized by the same decline curves. During the 1970s, 78 percent of CH 4 emissions from coal mining came from seventeen counties in seven states. In addition, mine closure dates were obtained for two states, Colorado and Illinois, for the hundred year period extending from 1900 through 1999. The data were used to establish a frequency of mine closure histogram (by Energy 3-59

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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