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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 decade) and applied to the other five states with gassy mine closures. As a result, basin-specific decline curve equations were applied to the 145 gassy coal mines estimated to have closed between 1920 and 1971 in the United States, representing 78 percent of the emissions. State-specific, initial emission rates were used based on average coal mine CH 4 emissions rates during the 1970s (EPA 2004). Abandoned mine emission estimates are based on all closed mines known to have active mine CH 4 ventilation emission rates greater than 100 mcfd at the time of abandonment. For example, for 1990 the analysis included 145 mines closed before 1972 and 258 mines closed between 1972 and 1990. Initial emission rates based on MSHA reports, time of abandonment, and basin-specific decline curves influenced by a number of factors were used to calculate annual emissions for each mine in the database (MSHA 2016). Coal mine degasification data are not available for years prior to 1990, thus the initial emission rates used reflect ventilation emissions only for pre-1990 closures. CH 4 degasification amounts were added to the quantity of CH 4 vented to determine the total CH 4 liberation rate for all mines that closed between 1992 and 2015. Since the sample of gassy mines is assumed to account for 78 percent of the pre-1972 and 98 percent of the post-1971 abandoned mine emissions, the modeled results were multiplied by 1.22 and 1.02 to account for all U.S. abandoned mine emissions. From 1993 through 2015, emission totals were downwardly adjusted to reflect abandoned mine CH 4 emissions avoided from those mines. The Inventory totals were not adjusted for abandoned mine reductions from 1990 through 1992 because no data was reported for abandoned coal mining CH 4 recovery projects during that time. Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency A quantitative uncertainty analysis was conducted to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of emissions from abandoned underground coal mines. The uncertainty analysis described below provides for the specification of probability density functions for key variables within a computational structure that mirrors the calculation of the inventory estimate. The results provide the range within which, with 95 percent certainty, emissions from this source category are likely to fall. As discussed above, the parameters for which values must be estimated for each mine in order to predict its decline curve are: 1) the coal's adsorption isotherm; 2) CH 4 flow capacity as expressed by permeability; and 3) pressure at abandonment. Because these parameters are not available for each mine, a methodological approach to estimating emissions was used that generates a probability distribution of potential outcomes based on the most likely value and the probable range of values for each parameter. The range of values is not meant to capture the extreme values, but rather values that represent the highest and lowest quartile of the cumulative probability density function of each parameter. Once the low, mid, and high values are selected, they are applied to a probability density function. The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 3-35. Annual abandoned coal mine CH 4 emissions in 2015 were estimated to be between 5.2 and 7.9 MMT CO 2 Eq. at a 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of 18 percent below to 24 percent above the 2015 emission estimate of 6.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. One of the reasons for the relatively narrow range is that mine-specific data is available for use in the methodology for mines closed after 1972. Emissions from mines closed prior to 1972 have the largest degree of uncertainty because no mine-specific CH 4 liberation rates exist. Table 3-35: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CH4 Emissions from Abandoned Underground Coal Mines (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Abandoned Underground Coal Mines CH4 6.4 5.2 7.9 -18% +24% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. 3-60 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 3.6 Petroleum Systems (IPCC Source Category 1B2a) EPA is seeking stakeholder feedback on a number of options for updating the emissions estimates in this section. See Recalculations Discussion below for methods used in the development of the public review draft, and EPA’s memos on updates under consideration for other options being considered: https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/updates-under-consideration-petroleum-and-natural-gas-systems-1990-2015- ghg-inventory. It is likely that the methods presented here and the calculated emissions totals will change due to revisions between this public review draft of the 1990-2015 Inventory and the final 1990-2015 Inventory, but impacts on the total emissions estimate are expected to be minor. See the recalculations discussion below for more details. Note that 2014 results for CO 2 emissions are being used as a preliminary estimate for 2015 while EPA reviews the activity data and estimation methods for consistency with data sources used for methane calculations. Methane emissions from petroleum systems are primarily associated with onshore and offshore crude oil production, transportation, and refining operations. During these activities, CH 4 is released to the atmosphere as fugitive emissions, vented emissions, emissions from operational upsets, and emissions from fuel combustion. Fugitive and vented CO 2 emissions from petroleum systems are primarily associated with crude oil production and refining operations but are negligible in transportation operations. Total CH 4 emissions from petroleum systems in 2015 were 41.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. (1,660 kt). Total CO 2 emissions from petroleum systems in 2015 were 3.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. (3,041 kt). Production Field Operations. Production field operations account for approximately 98 percent of total CH 4 emissions from petroleum systems. Vented CH 4 from field operations account for approximately 85 percent of the net emissions from the production sector, fugitive emissions are approximately 7 percent, uncombusted CH 4 emissions (i.e., unburned fuel) account for approximately 8 percent, and process upset emissions are 0.2 percent. The predominant sources of emissions from production field operations are pneumatic controllers, offshore oil platforms, associated gas venting and flaring, oil tanks, gas engines, chemical injection pumps, hydraulically fractured oil well completions, and oil wellheads. These sources alone emit over 90 percent of the production field operations emissions. The remaining 10 percent of the emissions are distributed among around 20 additional activities. Since 1990, CH 4 emissions from production field operations have decreased by nearly 30 percent. Production segment methane emissions have decreased by around 8 percent from 2014 levels, primarily due to decreases in emissions from associated gas venting and flaring. Vented CO 2 associated with production field operations account for approximately 99 percent of the total CO 2 emissions from production field operations, while fugitive and process upsets together account for approximately 1 percent of the emissions. The principal sources of CO 2 emissions are oil tanks, pneumatic controllers, chemical injection pumps, and offshore oil platforms. These four sources together account for slightly over 97 percent of the non-combustion CO 2 emissions from production field operations, while the remaining 3 percent of the emissions is distributed among around 20 additional activities. Due to the activity data source for CO 2 from flaring, it is not possible to develop separate estimates for flaring occurring in natural gas production and flaring occurring in oil production. Total CO 2 emissions from flaring for both natural gas and oil were 18.0 MMT CO 2 in 2015 and are included in the Natural Gas Systems estimates. Crude Oil Transportation. Crude oil transportation activities account for approximately 1 percent of total CH 4 emissions from the oil industry. Venting emissions, including from tanks, truck loading, rail loading, and marine vessel loading operations account for 89 percent of CH 4 emissions from crude oil transportation. Fugitive emissions, almost entirely from floating roof tanks, account for approximately 11 percent of CH 4 emissions from crude oil transportation. Since 1990, CH 4 emissions from transportation have increased by 28 percent. However, because emissions from crude oil transportation account for such a small percentage of the total emissions from the petroleum industry, this has had little impact on the overall emissions. Methane emissions from transportation in 2015 increased by approximately 2 percent from 2014 levels. Energy 3-61

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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Quality manual for the greenhouse gas inventory. Version 1.
D - Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Abengoa
Use of Models and Facility-Level Data in Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Heavy-Duty Trucks
Building trust in greenhouse gas inventories from the United ... - WWF
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for Chapel Hill Street Lights ...
international maritime transport and greenhouse gas emissions - IMO
2009 Corporate Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory - the Town of ...
City of Richmond 2008 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
Expert Meeting on Uncertainty and Validation of Emission Inventories
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation - Center for ...
Inventory of New York City Greenhouse Gas Emissions - NYC.gov
Greenhouse Gas Emission Policies Is There a Way ... - Castalia
Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Septic ... - Geoflow
Aspen-Pitkin County Airport Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory ...
County of San Diego 2005/2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Agriculture and Forestry: A ...
Greenhouse gas emissions from production of imported and ... - Inra
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report - Cal Poly Pomona
Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2003
Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Center for Climate and ...
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS - The Sallan Foundation
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories - US Environmental ...
Projection of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2010 to 2030
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation - Center for ...
LEVErAging nATurAL gAS To rEduCE grEEnhouSE gAS EmiSSionS