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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 feedback on the options presented, and it is likely that the methods presented here and the calculated emissions totals will change due to revisions between this public review draft of the 2017 GHG Inventory (1990-2015) and the final 2017 GHG Inventory, but impacts on the total emissions estimate are expected to be minor. The combined impact of revisions to 2014 petroleum production segment emissions, compared to the previous Inventory, is a decrease in CH 4 emissions from 67.4 to 44.1 MMT CO 2 Eq. (23 MMT CO 2 Eq., or 35 percent). The recalculations resulted in an average increase in emission estimates across the 1990 through 2014 time series, compared to the previous Inventory, of 3.2 MMT CO 2 Eq ., or 7 percent. The recalculations resulted in increases in the emission estimate in early years of the time series, primarily due to recalculations related to associated gas venting and flaring, and decreases in the emission estimate in later years of the time series, primarily due to recalculations for pneumatic controllers. Production This section references the memorandum, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2015: Revisions under Consideration for Natural Gas and Petroleum Systems Production Emissions (2017 Production Memo). This memorandum contains further details and documentation of recalculations. Well Counts EPA has used a more recent version of the DrillingInfo data set to update well counts data in this public review draft of the Inventory. For more information, see pages 19 through 20 of the 2017 Production Memo. This update resulted in a decrease of 34 percent in oil well counts on average over the time series. EPA received feedback that stakeholders generally support the revision as introducing more consistency with recently published well count estimates. EPA continues to compare current estimates with stakeholder well counts also derived from DrillingInfo, investigate differences, and may further revise the well count estimates in the final Inventory, potentially resulting in additional (but likely minor) decreases in calculated emissions from sources that rely on oil well counts for activity data (e.g., pneumatic controllers, equipment leaks, and storage tanks). Table 3-40: Oil Well Count Data Oil Well Count 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Number of Oil Wells 595,109 497,744 560,005 584,515 601,670 619,818 607,559 Previous Estimated Number of Oil Wells 904,675 764,371 838,899 867,375 884,652 898,268 NA Percent Change in Counts -34% -35% -33% -33% -32% -31% NA NA – Not Applicable 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 Tanks In the public review draft, EPA developed emissions estimates for oil tanks using GHGRP data and an equipmentbased approach. For more information, please see pages 5 through 14 of the 2017 Production Memo. Using 2015 GHGRP data, EPA developed a value for the number of large tanks per well (0.54) and the number of small tanks per well (0.21), a fraction of tanks in each of five categories (large tanks with flares, large tanks with VRU, uncontrolled large tanks, small tanks with flares, and small tanks without flares) for 2015, and corresponding emission factors. The count of large and small tanks per well of 0.54 and 0.21, respectively, was applied to total oil well counts for each year of the time series. The 2015 fraction of tanks in each control category was applied to tanks for the years 2011 to 2015. For 1990, it was assumed that all tanks were in the uncontrolled categories. EPA then linearly interpolated from 1990 to 2011 for each category. Category-specific emission factors developed from 2015 GHGRP data were applied for each year of the time series. EPA also developed a per-tank emission factor for malfunctioning dump values. In the GHGRP, only large tanks report malfunctioning dump valves. EPA has applied the emission factor to all large tanks for each year of the time series. EPA received some initial stakeholder feedback on the updates under consideration for this source suggesting that the GHGRP methods for tanks could result in potential underestimates in reported emissions, while other feedback suggested the GHGRP methods did not underestimate tank emissions. EPA also received feedback from two commenters supporting the throughput-based 3-66 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 approach over the tank count based approach (approach used here), noting that throughput more directly relates to tank emission than the number of tanks. Based on this initial feedback, EPA is considering using the throughputbased approach for the final 2017 GHG inventory. The throughput-based approach would result in lower national methane emissions than the tank-based approach, with 2014 oil tank emissions around 50 percent lower than emissions calculated using the tank-based approach presented here. As noted above, EPA continues to receive and review feedback on the options presented and will also assess information received as public review comments. Table 3-41: National Tank Activity Data (Number of Tanks) by Category and National Emissions (Metric Tons CH4) Activity Data/Emissions 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Large Tanks w/ Flares (Counts) 0 112,752 177,597 185,370 190,811 196,566 192,679 Large Tanks w/ VRU (Counts) 0 19,083 30,058 31,374 32,294 33,269 32,611 Large Tanks w/o Control (Counts) 319,160 135,108 92,678 96,734 99,573 102,577 100,548 Small Tanks w/ Flares (Counts) 0 18,349 28,902 30,167 31,052 31,989 31,356 Small Tanks w/o Flares (Counts) 126,204 87,207 89,858 93,791 96,543 99,455 97,488 Total Emissions (MT) 335,031 160,949 127,406 132,983 136,885 141,014 138,225 Previous Estimated Emissions (MT) 250,643 187,872 220,021 278,638 330,049 396,275 NA Percent Change in Emissions 34% -14% -42% -52% -59% -64% NA NA – Not Applicable 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Equipment Counts (Fugitive Sources) Additional reporting to GHGRP for RY2015 improved EPA’s allocation of GHGRP equipment counts between natural gas and petroleum for certain equipment leak category sources. EPA used the RY2015 reporting data to develop improved counts of equipment per well. For more information, please see pages 20 through 22 of the 2017 Production Memo. For the public review draft, EPA developed per well counts using 2015 GHGRP and applied those to national oil well counts for years 2011 through 2015. The per well counts for 1990 through 1992 were retained from previous inventories, and counts for 1993 through 2010 were developed by linear interpolation. Overall, the change decreased calculated emissions over the time series by around 12 percent, with the largest changes in light crude separators. Table 3-42: National Equipment Counts for Fugitive Sources and National Emissions (Metric Tons CH4) Activity Data/Emissions 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Separators (Heavy Crude) 12,575 18,730 22,047 23,011 23,687 24,401 23,919 (Counts) Separators (Light Crude) 114,447 170,459 200,646 209,428 215,574 222,076 217,684 (Counts) Heater/Treaters (Light Crude) 87,106 115,283 131,084 136,821 140,837 145,085 142,215 (Counts) Headers (Heavy Crude) (Counts) 15,523 26,937 32,909 34,350 35,358 36,424 35,704 Headers (Light Crude) (Counts) 48,124 83,508 102,023 106,488 109,613 112,920 110,686 Total Emissions (MT) 26,593 38,563 45,054 47,026 48,406 49,866 48,880 Previous Estimated Emissions 28,420 45,244 54,139 55,977 57,092 57,970 NA (MT) Percent Change in Emissions -6% -15% -17% -16% -15% -14% NA NA – Not Applicable 20 21 22 23 24 Pneumatic Controllers and Chemical Injection Pumps The changes to pneumatic controller and chemical injection pump equipment counts result from the changes in oil well counts described above and from the improved estimate of the counts of oil wells in GHGRP, which improved the activity factors of counts of controllers and pumps per oil well. The total per well counts of pneumatic controllers and pumps were updated using year 2015 GHGRP data. These per well counts were applied to years Energy 3-67

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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