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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 duration of the leak), adjusted to only include those emissions that occurred in 2015 (2016 emissions will be included in next Inventory). The 2015 emissions estimate of 78,350 MT CH 4 was added to the 2015 estimate of fugitive emissions from storage wells, calculated with an emission factor approach, resulting in total emissions from storage wells in 2015 of 92,590 MT CH 4. For more information, please see Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2015: Update under Consideration for Storage Segment Emissions. 81 EPA continues to seek stakeholder feedback on this update and on the memo. Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency EPA’s planned uncertainty analysis is discussed in the Planned Improvements section. New data available starting in 2011 have improved estimates of emissions from Natural Gas Systems. Many of the previously available data sets were collected in the 1990s. To develop a consistent time series for 1990-2015, for sources with new data, EPA reviewed available information on factors that may have resulted in changes over the time series (e.g. regulations, voluntary actions) and requested stakeholder feedback on trends as well. For most sources, EPA developed annual data for 1993-2010 by interpolating activity data or emission factors or both between 1992 and 2011 data points. Information on time-series consistency for sources updated in this public review draft can be found in the Recalculation Discussion below, with additional detail provided in the 2017 Production and Processing memos. For information on other sources, please see the Methodology Discussion above. QA/QC and Verification Discussion The natural gas emission estimates in the Inventory are continually being reviewed and assessed to determine whether emission factors and activity factors accurately reflect current industry practices. A QA/QC analysis was performed for data gathering and input, documentation, and calculation. QA/QC checks are consistently conducted to minimize human error in the model calculations. EPA performs a thorough review of information associated with new studies, GHGRP data, regulations, public webcasts, and the Natural Gas STAR Program to assess whether the assumptions in the Inventory are consistent with current industry practices. The EPA has a multi-step data verification process for GHGRP data, including automatic checks during data-entry, statistical analyses on completed reports, and staff review of the reported data. Based on the results of the verification process, the EPA follows up with facilities to resolve mistakes that may have occurred. As in previous years, EPA conducted early engagement and communication with stakeholders on updates prior to public review. In December 2016 and January 2017, EPA stakeholder webinars on GHG data for oil and gas. In early 2017, EPA released memos detailing updates under consideration and requesting stakeholder feedback. EPA discusses preliminary stakeholder feedback received in the public review draft. EPA continues to receive and review feedback on the options presented, and may revise the recalculations in the final 2017 GHG Inventory based on that feedback. In recent years, several studies have measured emissions at the source level and at the national or regional level and calculated emissions estimates that may differ from the GHG Inventory. There are a variety of potential uses of data from new studies, including replacing a previous estimate or factor, verifying or QA of an existing estimate or factor, and identifying areas for updates. In general, there are two major types of studies related to oil and gas greenhouse gas data: studies that focus on measurement or quantification of emissions from specific activities, processes and equipment, and studies that focus on verification of estimates through inverse modeling. The first type of study can lead to direct improvements to or verification of GHG Inventory estimates. In the past few years, EPA has reviewed and in many cases, incorporated at . 81 . 3-76 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 data from these data sources. The second type of study can provide general indications on potential over- and under-estimates. A key challenge in using these types of studies to assess GHG Inventory results is having a relevant basis for comparison. In an effort to improve the ability to compare the national-level GHG inventory with measurement results that may be at other scales, a team at Harvard University along with EPA and other coauthors developed a gridded inventory of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions with 0.1° x 0.1° spatial resolution, monthly temporal resolution, and detailed scale-dependent error characterization. 82 The inventory is designed to be consistent with the 2016 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (1990-2014) estimates for the year 2012, which presents national totals for different source types. 83 Recalculations Discussion The EPA received information and data related to the emission estimates through the Inventory preparation process, previous Inventories’ formal public notice periods, GHGRP data, and new studies. The EPA carefully evaluated relevant information available, and made several updates in this public review draft of the Inventory, including revisions to production segment activity and emissions data, gathering and boosting facility emissions, and processing segment activity and emissions data. Additional information on inclusion of the Aliso Canyon emissions can be found in the Methodology section above and in the 2017 Transmission and Storage Memo 84 and not in the Recalculation Discussion section as it did not involve recalculation of a previous year of the Inventory. In January 2017, the EPA released draft memoranda that discussed the changes under consideration and requested stakeholder feedback on those changes. 85 In this public review draft of the 2017 GHG Inventory (1990-2015), EPA has selected from the options presented in the 2017 Production and Processing memos to develop emissions estimates. EPA continues to receive and review feedback on the options presented, and it is likely that the methods presented here and the calculated emissions totals will change due to revisions between this public review draft of the 1990-2015 Inventory and the final Inventory, but impacts on the total emissions estimate are expected to be minor. The impact of all revisions to natural gas systems is a decrease of 15.3 MMT CO 2 Eq., or 9 percent, comparing the 2014 value from the previous Inventory to this public review draft Inventory. Over the time series, the average change is a decrease of 15 MMT CO 2 Eq., or 8 percent. Recalculations for the production segment (including gathering and boosting facilities) resulted in a small decrease in the 2014 CH 4 emission estimate, from 109.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. in the previous Inventory, to 106.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. in this public review draft of the Inventory, or 2 percent. Over the time series, the average change is an increase of 9.5 MMT CO 2 Eq., or 10 percent. Recalculations for the processing segment resulted in a decrease of 12.8 MMT CO 2 Eq., or 54 percent comparing the 2014 value from the previous Inventory to this public review draft Inventory. Over the time series, the average change was 28 percent. Although there were no methodological updates to the transmission and storage segment, recalculations due to updated data (e.g., GHGRP station counts, the GHGRP split between dry and wet seal centrifugal compressors, and GHGRP pneumatic controller data) impacted emissions estimates, resulting in an average increase in calculated emissions over the time series from this segment of around 24 metric tons CH 4, or less than 0.01 percent. Although there were no methodological updates to the distribution segment, recalculations due to updated data (e.g., GHGRP M&R station counts) impacted emissions estimates, resulting in an average increase in calculated emissions over the time series from this segment of around 664 metric tons CH 4, or 0.1 percent. 82 See . 83 See . 84 See 85 See Revisions under Consideration for Natural Gas and Petroleum Systems Production Emissions, and Revisions under Consideration for Natural Gas Systems Processing Segment Emissions, available at . Energy 3-77

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 %Plants a %Plants

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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