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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Production This section references the Inventory production segment supporting memoranda: “Revisions to Natural Gas and Petroleum Production Emissions,” (the “2017 Production Memo”). 86 This memorandum contains further details and documentation of recalculations. Tanks In the public review draft, EPA developed emissions estimates for condensate tanks using GHGRP data and an equipment-based approach. For more information, please see pages 5 through 14 of the 2017 Production Memo. Using 2015 GHGRP data, EPA developed a value for large tanks per well (0.09) and small tanks per well (0.32), a fraction of tanks in each of five categories (large tanks with flares, large tanks with VRU, uncontrolled large tanks, small tanks with flares, and small tanks without flares) for 2015, and corresponding emission factors. The count of large and small tanks per well of 0.09 and 0.32, respectively, was applied to total gas well counts for each year of the time series. The 2015 fraction of tanks in each control category was applied to tanks for the years 2011 to 2015. For 1990, it was assumed that 50 percent of large tanks were controlled with a flare and 50 percent were uncontrolled, and all small tanks were in the uncontrolled category. EPA then linearly interpolated from 1990 to 2011 for each category. Category-specific emission factors developed from 2015 GHGRP data were applied for each year of the time series. EPA also developed a per-tank emission factor for malfunctioning dump values. In the GHGRP, only large tanks report malfunctioning dump valves. EPA has applied the emission factor to all large tanks for each year of the time series. As the new method results in the direct calculation of net emissions, EPA removed the tank reductions line item (an estimate of reductions from NESHAP). This revision on average resulted in a 74 percent decrease in the estimated emission for tanks across the time series. EPA received initial stakeholder feedback on the updates under consideration for this source supporting the revision, but also received feedback suggesting that the GHGRP methods for tanks could result in potential underestimates in reported emissions. EPA received feedback from two commenters supporting the throughput-based approach over the tank count based approach (the approach used here), noting that throughput more directly relates to tank emissions than the number of tanks. Based on this initial feedback, EPA is considering using the throughput-based approach for the final 2017 GHG inventory. The throughput-based approach would result in lower national methane emissions than the tankbased approach, with 2014 oil tank emissions around 30 percent lower than emissions calculated using the tankbased approach presented here. As noted above, EPA continues to receive and review feedback on the options presented and will also assess information received as public review comments. Table 3-53: National Tank Activity Data (Number of Tanks) by Category and National Emissions (Metric Tons CH4) Activity Data/Emissions 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Large Tanks w/ Flares (Counts) 9,430 18,344 23,708 23,606 23,246 23,343 22,705 Large Tanks w/ VRU (Counts) 0 2,429 4,212 4,194 4,130 4,147 4,034 Large Tanks w/o Control 9,430 11,924 12,576 12,522 12,331 12,382 12,044 (Counts) Small Tanks w/ Flares (Counts) 0 13,547 23,488 23,388 23,031 23,126 22,495 Small Tanks w/o Flares (Counts) 67,607 103,660 121,669 121,150 119,301 119,797 116,523 Total Emissions (MT) 20,729 30,530 35,131 34,981 34,447 34,590 33,645 Previous Potential Emissions 93,224 119,191 229,284 259,121 312,185 303,711 NA (MT) Previous Regulatory Reductions - 31,908 61,381 69,369 83,575 81,306 NA (MT) Previous Net Emissions (MT) 93,224 87,283 167,902 189,752 228,610 222,405 NA Percent Change in Emissions -78% -65% -79% -82% -85% -84% NA NA – Not Applicable 86 See . 3-78 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Well Counts EPA has used a more recent version of the DrillingInfo data set to update well counts data in this public review draft of the Inventory. For more information, see pages 19 through 20 of the 2017 Production Memo. This update resulted in a decrease of 1 percent in gas well counts on average over the time series. EPA received feedback that stakeholders generally support the revision as introducing more consistency with recently published well count estimates. EPA continues to compare current estimates with stakeholder well counts also derived from DrillingInfo, investigate differences, and may further revise the well count estimates in the final Inventory. Table 3-54: Gas Well Count Data a b l e 3 - 5 : Gas Well Count 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Number of Gas Wells 214,220 371,385 459,948 457,984 450,997 452,870 440,496 Previous Estimated Number of Gas Wells 218,709 373,903 463,198 460,588 454,491 456,140 NA Percent Change -2% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% NA NA – Not Applicable Equipment Counts (Fugitive Sources) O Additional i reporting to GHGRP for RY2015 improved EPA’s allocation of GHGRP equipment counts between natural l gas and petroleum for certain equipment leak category sources. EPA used the RY2015 reporting data to develop W improved counts of equipment per well. For more information, please see pages 20 to 22 of the 2017 Production e Memo. For the public review draft, EPA developed per well counts using 2015 GHGRP and applied those l to national gas well counts for years 2011 through 2015. The per well counts for 1990 through 1992 were retained l from previous inventories, and counts for 1993 through 2010 were developed by linear interpolation. Overall, C the change decreased calculated emissions over the time series by around 11 percent, with the largest decreases in meters/piping (20 percent), dehydrators (13 percent), and compressors (16 percent). Initial stakeholder o feedback supported this update. u Table n 3-55: National Equipment Counts for Fugitive Sources and National Emissions (Metric Tons t CH4) D a t a Activity Data/Emissions 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Separators (Counts) 124,287 244,992 315,118 313,773 308,986 310,269 301,792 Heaters (Counts) 53,218 79,878 94,942 94,537 93,095 93,481 90,927 Dehydrators (Counts) 29,866 20,579 12,248 12,196 12,010 12,060 11,730 Meters/Piping (Counts) 197,710 321,723 394,384 392,700 386,709 388,315 377,705 Compressors (Counts) 18,870 29,888 36,005 35,852 35,305 35,451 34,483 Total Emissions (MT) 143,576 253,793 304,915 303,645 297,791 296,049 291,250 Previous Estimated Emissions 153,106 292,944 364,342 362,341 356,470 354,306 NA (MT) Percent Change in Emissions -6% -13% -16% -16% -16% -16% NA NA – Not Applicable 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Pneumatic Controllers and Chemical Injection Pumps Total per well counts of pneumatic controllers and chemical injection pump were updated using year 2015 GHGRP data. The 2015 GHGRP data set allowed for improved estimates of the counts of gas wells in GHGRP, which improved the activity factors of counts of controllers and pumps per gas well. These per well counts were applied to years 2011 through 2015. For years 2011 through 2015, GHGRP year-specific data on fractions of pneumatic controllers in each category (high bleed “HB”, low bleed “LB”, and intermittent “IB”) were applied to the counts of pneumatic controllers. The 1990 through 1992 per well counts of controllers in each category and pumps were retained for 1990 through 1992 and then the per well counts of pneumatic controllers in each category and pumps for 1993 through 2010 were developed by linear interpolating from 1992 through 2011. Category-specific emissions factors developed from year 2014 GHGRP data were applied throughout the time series. The recalculations using the latest GHGRP data resulted in only minor changes in the annual fractions of controllers in each category, and only minor changes in total calculated emissions. Energy 3-79

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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