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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT Emission estimates related to the consumption of international bunker fuels are subject to the same uncertainties as those from domestic aviation and marine mobile combustion emissions; however, additional uncertainties result from the difficulty in collecting accurate fuel consumption activity data for international transport activities separate from domestic transport activities. 95 For example, smaller aircraft on shorter routes often carry sufficient fuel to complete several flight segments without refueling in order to minimize time spent at the airport gate or take advantage of lower fuel prices at particular airports. This practice, called tankering, when done on international flights, complicates the use of fuel sales data for estimating bunker fuel emissions. Tankering is less common with the type of large, long-range aircraft that make many international flights from the United States, however. Similar practices occur in the marine shipping industry where fuel costs represent a significant portion of overall operating costs and fuel prices vary from port to port, leading to some tankering from ports with low fuel costs. Uncertainties exist with regard to the total fuel used by military aircraft and ships, and in the activity data on military operations and training that were used to estimate percentages of total fuel use reported as bunker fuel emissions. Total aircraft and ship fuel use estimates were developed from DoD records, which document fuel sold to the Navy and Air Force from the Defense Logistics Agency. These data may slightly over or under estimate actual total fuel use in aircraft and ships because each Service may have procured fuel from, and/or may have sold to, traded with, and/or given fuel to other ships, aircraft, governments, or other entities. There are uncertainties in aircraft operations and training activity data. Estimates for the quantity of fuel actually used in Navy and Air Force flying activities reported as bunker fuel emissions had to be estimated based on a combination of available data and expert judgment. Estimates of marine bunker fuel emissions were based on Navy vessel steaming hour data, which reports fuel used while underway and fuel used while not underway. This approach does not capture some voyages that would be classified as domestic for a commercial vessel. Conversely, emissions from fuel used while not underway preceding an international voyage are reported as domestic rather than international as would be done for a commercial vessel. There is uncertainty associated with ground fuel estimates for 1997 through 2001. Small fuel quantities may have been used in vehicles or equipment other than that which was assumed for each fuel type. There are also uncertainties in fuel end-uses by fuel-type, emissions factors, fuel densities, diesel fuel sulfur content, aircraft and vessel engine characteristics and fuel efficiencies, and the methodology used to back-calculate the data set to 1990 using the original set from 1995. The data were adjusted for trends in fuel use based on a closely correlating, but not matching, data set. All assumptions used to develop the estimate were based on process knowledge, Department and military Service data, and expert judgments. The magnitude of the potential errors related to the various uncertainties has not been calculated, but is believed to be small. The uncertainties associated with future military bunker fuel emission estimates could be reduced through additional data collection. Although aggregate fuel consumption data have been used to estimate emissions from aviation, the recommended method for estimating emissions of gases other than CO 2 in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines (IPCC 2006) is to use data by specific aircraft type, number of individual flights and, ideally, movement data to better differentiate between domestic and international aviation and to facilitate estimating the effects of changes in technologies. The IPCC also recommends that cruise altitude emissions be estimated separately using fuel consumption data, while landing and take-off (LTO) cycle data be used to estimate near-ground level emissions of gases other than CO 2. 96 95 See uncertainty discussions under Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion. 96 U.S. aviation emission estimates for CO, NOx, and NMVOCs are reported by EPA’s National Emission Inventory (NEI) Air Pollutant Emission Trends website, and reported under the Mobile Combustion section. It should be noted that these estimates are based solely upon LTO cycles and consequently only capture near ground-level emissions, which are more relevant for air quality evaluations. These estimates also include both domestic and international flights. Therefore, estimates reported under the Mobile Combustion section overestimate IPCC-defined domestic CO, NOx, and NMVOC emissions by including landing and take-off (LTO) cycles by aircraft on international flights, but underestimate because they do not include emissions from aircraft on domestic flight segments at cruising altitudes. The estimates in Mobile Combustion are also likely to include emissions from ocean-going vessels departing from U.S. ports on international voyages. 3-90 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 There is also concern regarding the reliability of the existing DOC (2016) data on marine vessel fuel consumption reported at U.S. customs stations due to the significant degree of inter-annual variation. Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. QA/QC and Verification A source-specific QA/QC plan for international bunker fuels was developed and implemented. This effort included a Tier 1 analysis, as well as portions of a Tier 2 analysis. The Tier 2 procedures that were implemented involved checks specifically focusing on the activity data and emission factor sources and methodology used for estimating CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O from international bunker fuels in the United States. Emission totals for the different sectors and fuels were compared and trends were investigated. No corrective actions were necessary. Planned Improvements The feasibility of including data from a broader range of domestic and international sources for bunker fuels, including data from studies such as the Third IMO GHG Study 2014 (IMO 2014), is being considered. 3.10 Wood Biomass and Ethanol Consumption (IPCC Source Category 1A) The combustion of biomass fuels such as wood, charcoal, and wood waste and biomass-based fuels such as ethanol, biogas, and biodiesel generates CO 2 in addition to CH 4 and N 2O already covered in this chapter. In line with the reporting requirements for inventories submitted under the UNFCCC, CO 2 emissions from biomass combustion have been estimated separately from fossil fuel CO 2 emissions and are not directly included in the energy sector contributions to U.S. totals. In accordance with IPCC methodological guidelines, any such emissions are calculated by accounting for net carbon (C) fluxes from changes in biogenic C reservoirs in wooded or crop lands. For a more complete description of this methodological approach, see the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry chapter (Chapter 6), which accounts for the contribution of any resulting CO 2 emissions to U.S. totals within the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector’s approach. In 2015, total CO 2 emissions from the burning of woody biomass in the industrial, residential, commercial, and electricity generation sectors were approximately 198.7 MMT CO 2 Eq. (198,723 kt) (see Table 3-68 and Table 3-69). As the largest consumer of woody biomass, the industrial sector was responsible for 61.2 percent of the CO 2 emissions from this source. The residential sector was the second largest emitter, constituting 22.4 percent of the total, while the commercial and electricity generation sectors accounted for the remainder. Table 3-68: CO2 Emissions from Wood Consumption by End-Use Sector (MMT CO2 Eq.) End-Use Sector 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Industrial 135.3 136.3 122.9 125.7 123.1 124.4 121.6 Residential 59.8 44.3 46.4 43.3 59.8 59.8 44.5 Commercial 6.8 7.2 7.1 6.3 7.2 7.6 7.5 Electricity Generation 13.3 19.1 18.8 19.6 21.4 25.9 25.1 Total 215.2 206.9 195.2 194.9 211.6 217.7 198.7 Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. 32 Table 3-69: CO2 Emissions from Wood Consumption by End-Use Sector (kt) End-Use Sector 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Industrial 135,348 136,269 122,865 125,724 123,149 124,369 121,564 Energy 3-91

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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