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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

1 2 Table 4-10: Approach

1 2 Table 4-10: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CO2 Emissions from Lime Production (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Lime Production CO2 14.1 13.8 14.5 -3% +3% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure consistency in emissions from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Recalculations Discussion Updated data from Lisa Corathers (U.S. Geological Survey) (Corathers 2017) resulted in High-Calcium Quicklime production data changes for 2014 and Dolomitic Quicklime production data changes for 2013 and 2014, as shown in Table 4-8. Recovered emissions shown in Table 4-7 were updated using aggregated GHGRP data from 2010 to 2015. This data changed slightly from previous Inventory reports due to the adoption of new rounding technique to maintain consistency with other data sets. Both of these data updates resulted in changes to emissions estimates across the time-series (2011 to 2015) of less than 1 percent. Planned Improvements Future improvements involve finishing review of data to improve current assumptions associated with emissions from production of LKD and other byproducts/wastes as discussed in the Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency section per comments from the NLA provided during the public review of the draft 2015 Inventory. In response to comments, EPA met with NLA on April 7, 2015 to outline specific information required to apply IPCC methods to develop a country-specific correction factor to more accurately estimate emissions from production of LKD. In response to this technical meeting, in January and February 2016, NLA compiled and shared historical emissions information reported by member facilities on an annual basis under voluntary reporting initiatives over 2002 through 2011 associated with generation of total calcined byproducts and LKD (LKD reporting only differentiated starting in 2010). This emissions information was reported on a voluntary basis consistent with NLA’s facility-level reporting protocol also recently provided. EPA has reviewed the information provided by NLA and plans to work with them to address need for EPA’s analysis, as there is limited information across the time series. Due to limited resources and need for additional QA of information, this planned improvement is still in process and has not been incorporated into this current Inventory report. As an interim step, EPA plans to update the qualitative description of uncertainty to reflect the information provided by NLA in the final report. In addition, EPA plans to also review GHGRP emissions and activity data reported to EPA under Subpart S, in particular review of aggregated activity data on lime production, by type. Particular attention will be made to also ensuring time series consistency of the emissions estimates presented in future Inventory reports, consistent with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines. This is required as the facility-level reporting data from EPA’s GHGRP, with the program's initial requirements for reporting of emissions in calendar year 2010, are not available for all inventory years (i.e., 1990 through 2009) as required for this Inventory. In implementing improvements and integration of data from EPA’s GHGRP, the latest guidance from the IPCC on the use of facility-level data in national inventories will be relied upon. 11 11 See . 4-14 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 4.3 Glass Production (IPCC Source Category 2A3) Glass production is an energy and raw-material intensive process that results in the generation of CO 2 from both the energy consumed in making glass and the glass process itself. Emissions from fuels consumed for energy purposes during the production of glass are accounted for in the Energy sector. Glass production employs a variety of raw materials in a glass-batch. These include formers, fluxes, stabilizers, and sometimes colorants. The major raw materials (i.e., fluxes and stabilizers) which emit process-related carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions during the glass melting process are limestone, dolomite, and soda ash. The main former in all types of glass is silica (SiO 2). Other major formers in glass include feldspar and boric acid (i.e., borax). Fluxes are added to lower the temperature at which the batch melts. Most commonly used flux materials are soda ash (sodium carbonate, Na 2CO 3) and potash (potassium carbonate, K 2O). Stabilizers are used to make glass more chemically stable and to keep the finished glass from dissolving and/or falling apart. Commonly used stabilizing agents in glass production are limestone (CaCO 3), dolomite (CaCO 3MgCO 3), alumina (Al 2O 3), magnesia (MgO), barium carbonate (BaCO 3), strontium carbonate (SrCO 3), lithium carbonate (Li 2CO 3), and zirconia (ZrO 2) (OIT 2002). Glass makers also use a certain amount of recycled scrap glass (cullet), which comes from in-house return of glassware broken in the process or other glass spillage or retention such as recycling or cullet broker services. The raw materials (primarily limestone, dolomite and soda ash) release CO 2 emissions in a complex hightemperature chemical reaction during the glass melting process. This process is not directly comparable to the calcination process used in lime manufacturing, cement manufacturing, and process uses of carbonates (i.e., limestone/dolomite use), but has the same net effect in terms of CO 2 emissions (IPCC 2006). The U.S. glass industry can be divided into four main categories: containers, flat (window) glass, fiber glass, and specialty glass. The majority of commercial glass produced is container and flat glass (EPA 2009). The United States is one of the major global exporters of glass. Domestically, demand comes mainly from the construction, auto, bottling, and container industries. There are over 1,500 companies that manufacture glass in the United States, with the largest being Corning, Guardian Industries, Owens-Illinois, and PPG Industries. 12 In 2015, 341 kilotons of limestone and 2,390 kilotons of soda ash were consumed for glass production (USGS 2015c; Willett 2017). Dolomite consumption data for glass manufacturing was reported to be zero for 2015. Use of limestone and soda ash in glass production resulted in aggregate CO 2 emissions of 1.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (1,299 kt) (see Table 4-11). Overall, emissions have decreased 15 percent from 1990 through 2015. Emissions in 2015 decreased approximately 3 percent from 2014 levels while, in general, emissions from glass production have remained relatively constant over the time series with some fluctuations since 1990. In general, these fluctuations were related to the behavior of the export market and the U.S. economy. Specifically, the extended downturn in residential and commercial construction and automotive industries between 2008 and 2010 resulted in reduced consumption of glass products, causing a drop in global demand for limestone/dolomite and soda ash, and a corresponding decrease in emissions. Furthermore, the glass container sector is one of the leading soda ash consuming sectors in the United States. Some commercial food and beverage package manufacturers are shifting from glass containers towards lighter and more cost effective polyethylene terephthalate (PET) based containers, putting downward pressure on domestic consumption of soda ash (USGS 1995 through 2015c). Table 4-11: CO2 Emissions from Glass Production (MMT CO2 Eq. and kt) Year MMT CO2 Eq. kt 1990 1.5 1,535 2005 1.9 1,928 12 Excerpt from Glass & Glass Product Manufacturing Industry Profile, First Research. Available online at: . Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-15

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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