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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 installed abatement technology. The “abatement system utility factor” represents the percentage of time that the abatement equipment operates during the annual production period. No abatement equipment was installed at the Inolex/Allied Signal facility, which last operated in April 2006 (VA DEQ 2009). Plant-specific production data for this facility were obtained across the time series from 1990 through 2006 from the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VA DEQ 2010). The plant-specific production data were then used for calculating emissions as described above. For Plant 3, 2005 through 2009 emissions were obtained directly from the plant (Desai 2011a). For 1990 through 2004, emissions were estimated using plant-specific production data and the IPCC factors as described above for Plant 4. Plant-level adipic acid production for 1990 through 2003 was estimated by allocating national adipic acid production data to the plant level using the ratio of known plant capacity to total national capacity for all U.S. plants (ACC 2016; CMR 2001, 1998; CW 1999; C&EN 1992 through 1995). For 2004, actual plant production data were obtained and used for emission calculations (CW 2005). Plant capacities for 1990 through 1994 were obtained from Chemical & Engineering News, “Facts and Figures” and “Production of Top 50 Chemicals” (C&EN 1992 through 1995). Plant capacities for 1995 and 1996 were kept the same as 1994 data. The 1997 plant capacities were taken from Chemical Market Reporter, “Chemical Profile: Adipic Acid” (CMR 1998). The 1998 plant capacities for all four plants and 1999 plant capacities for three of the plants were obtained from Chemical Week, Product Focus: Adipic Acid/Adiponitrile (CW 1999). Plant capacities for 2000 for three of the plants were updated using Chemical Market Reporter, “Chemical Profile: Adipic Acid” (CMR 2001). For 2001 through 2003, the plant capacities for three plants were kept the same as the year 2000 capacities. Plant capacity for 1999 to 2003 for the one remaining plant was kept the same as 1998. National adipic acid production data (see Table 4-30) from 1990 through 2015 were obtained from the American Chemistry Council (ACC 2016). Table 4-30: Adipic Acid Production (kt) Year kt 1990 755 2005 865 2011 840 2012 950 2013 980 2014 1,025 2015 1,055 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT Uncertainty associated with N 2O emission estimates includes the methods used by companies to monitor and estimate emissions. While some information has been obtained through outreach with facilities, limited information is available over the time series on these methods, abatement technology destruction and removal efficiency rates and plant specific production levels. The results of this Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 4-31. Nitrous oxide emissions from adipic acid production for 2015 were estimated to be between 5.2 and 5.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. at the 95 percent confidence level. These values indicate a range of approximately 4 percent below to 4 percent above the 2015 emission estimate of 4.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. 4-34 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 Table 4-31: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for N2O Emissions from Adipic Acid Production (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Adipic Acid Production N2O 4.3 5.2 5.6 -4% +4% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure consistency in emissions from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. 4.9 Silicon Carbide Production and Consumption (IPCC Source Category 2B5) Carbon dioxide (CO 2) and methane (CH 4) are emitted from the production of silicon carbide (SiC), a material used as an industrial abrasive. Silicon carbide is produced for abrasive, metallurgical, and other non-abrasive applications in the United States. Production for metallurgical and other non-abrasive applications is not available and therefore both CO 2 and CH 4 estimates are based solely upon production estimates of silicon carbide for abrasive applications. Emissions from fuels consumed for energy purposes during the production of silicon carbide are accounted for in the Energy chapter. To produce SiC, silica sand or quartz (SiO 2) is reacted with carbon in the form of petroleum coke. A portion (about 35 percent) of the carbon contained in the petroleum coke is retained in the SiC. The remaining carbon is emitted as CO 2, CH 4, or carbon monoxide (CO). The overall reaction is shown below (but in practice it does not proceed according to stoichiometry): SiO 2 + 3C → SiC + 2CO (+ O 2 → 2CO 2 ) Carbon dioxide is also emitted from the consumption of SiC for metallurgical and other non-abrasive applications. Markets for manufactured abrasives, including SiC, are heavily influenced by activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector, especially in the aerospace, automotive, furniture, housing, and steel manufacturing sectors. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports that a portion (approximately 50 percent) of SiC is used in metallurgical and other non-abrasive applications, primarily in iron and steel production (USGS 2006a). As a result of the economic downturn in 2008 and 2009, demand for SiC decreased in those years. Low cost imports, particularly from China, combined with high relative operating costs for domestic producers, continue to put downward pressure on the production of SiC in the United States. However, demand for SiC consumption in the United States has recovered somewhat from its low in 2009 (USGS 2012a). Abrasive-grade silicon carbide was manufactured at a two facilities in 2015 (USGS 2016). Carbon dioxide emissions from SiC production and consumption in 2015 were 0.2 MMT CO 2 Eq. (180 kt CO 2) (see Table 4-32 and Table 4-33). Approximately 51 percent of these emissions resulted from SiC production while the remainder resulted from SiC consumption. Methane emissions from SiC production in 2015 were 0.01 MMT CO 2 Eq. (0.4 kt CH 4) (see Table 4-32 and Table 4-33). Emissions have fluctuated in recent years, but 2015 emissions are about 52 percent lower than emissions in 1990. Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-35

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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