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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 For 2015, data from EPA’s GHGRP (Subpart PP) was unavailable for use in the current Inventory report due to data confidentiality reasons. A linear trend extrapolation was performed based on previous GHGRP reporting years (2010 to 2014) to estimate 2015 emissions. This time-series recalculation is consistent with Volume 1, Chapter 5 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. 1990 through 2009 For 1990 through 2009, data from EPA’s GHGRP are not available. For this time period, CO 2 production data from four naturally-occurring CO 2 reservoirs were used to estimate annual CO 2 emissions. These facilities were Jackson Dome in Mississippi, Brave and West Bravo Domes in New Mexico, and McCallum Dome in Colorado. The facilities in Mississippi and New Mexico produced CO 2 for use in both EOR and in other commercial applications (e.g., chemical manufacturing, food production). The fourth facility in Colorado (McCallum Dome) produced CO 2 for commercial applications only (New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources 2006). Carbon dioxide production data and the percentage of production that was used for non-EOR applications for the Jackson Dome, Mississippi facility were obtained from Advanced Resources International (ARI 2006, 2007) for 1990 to 2000, and from the Annual Reports of Denbury Resources (Denbury Resources 2002 through 2010) for 2001 to 2009 (see Table 4-51). Denbury Resources reported the average CO 2 production in units of MMCF CO 2 per day for 2001 through 2009 and reported the percentage of the total average annual production that was used for EOR. Production from 1990 to 1999 was set equal to 2000 production, due to lack of publicly available production data for 1990 through 1999. Carbon dioxide production data for the Bravo Dome and West Bravo Dome were obtained from ARI for 1990 through 2009 (ARI 1990 to 2010). Data for the West Bravo Dome facility were only available for 2009. The percentage of total production that was used for non-EOR applications for the Bravo Dome and West Bravo Dome facilities for 1990 through 2009 were obtained from New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (Broadhead 2003; New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources 2006). Production data for the McCallum Dome (Jackson County), Colorado facility were obtained from the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC) for 1999 through 2009 (COGCC 2014). Production data for 1990 to 1998 and percentage of production used for EOR were assumed to be the same as for 1999, due to lack of publicly-available data. Table 4-51: CO2 Production (kt CO2) and the Percent Used for Non-EOR Applications Year Jackson Dome, MS CO2 Production (kt) (% Non- EOR) Bravo Dome, NM CO2 Production (kt) (% Non- EOR) West Bravo Dome, NM CO2 Production (kt) (% Non- EOR) McCallum Dome, CO CO2 Production (kt) (% Non- EOR) Total CO2 Production from Extraction and Capture Facilities (kt) 1990 1,344 (100%) 63 (1%) + 65 (100%) NA NA 2005 1,254 (27%) 58 (1%) + 63 (100%) NA NA 2011 NA NA NA NA 66,241 6% 2012 NA NA NA NA 66,326 6% 2013 NA NA NA NA 68,435 6% 2014 NA NA NA NA 72,000 6% 2015 NA NA NA NA 72,569 6% + Does not exceed 0.5 percent. a Includes only food & beverage applications. NA (Not available). For 2010 through 2015, the publicly available GHGRP data were aggregated at the national level. Facility-level data are not publicly available from EPA’s GHGRP. % Non- EOR a 4-54 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT There is uncertainty associated with the data reported through EPA’s GHGRP. Specifically, there is uncertainty associated with the amount of CO 2 consumed for food and beverage applications given a threshold for reporting under GHGRP applicable to those reporting under Subpart PP, in addition to the exclusion of the amount of CO 2 transferred to all other end-use categories. This latter category might include CO 2 quantities that are being used for non-EOR industrial applications such as firefighting. Second, uncertainty is associated with the exclusion of imports/exports data for CO 2 suppliers. Currently these data are not publicly available through EPA’s GHGRP and hence are excluded from this analysis. The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 4-52. Carbon dioxide consumption CO 2 emissions for 2015 were estimated to be between 3.9 and 5.1 MMT CO 2 Eq. at the 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of approximately 12 percent below to 13 percent above the emission estimate of 4.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. Table 4-52: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CO2 Emissions from CO2 Consumption (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound CO2 Consumption CO2 4.5 3.9 5.1 -12% +13% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure consistency in emissions from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Planned Improvements EPA will continue to evaluate the potential to include additional GHGRP data on other emissive end-uses to improve accuracy and completeness of estimates for this source category. Particular attention will be made to ensuring time series consistency of the emissions estimates presented in future Inventory reports, consistent with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines. This is required as the facility-level reporting data from EPA’s GHGRP, with the program's initial requirements for reporting of emissions in calendar year 2010, are not available for all inventory years (i.e., 1990 through 2009) as required for this Inventory. In implementing improvements and integration of data from EPA’s GHGRP, the latest guidance from the IPCC on the use of facility-level data in national inventories will be relied upon. 42 These improvements, in addition to updating the time-series when new data is available, are still in process and will be incorporated into future Inventory reports. 42 See . Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-55

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    Note that the relative uncertainty

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    1 2 3 4 result in cessation of emis

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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