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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

1 Table 4-55: Chemical

1 Table 4-55: Chemical Composition of Phosphate Rock (Percent by Weight) Composition Central Florida North Florida North Carolina (calcined) Idaho (calcined) Morocco Total Carbon (as C) 1.60 1.76 0.76 0.60 1.56 Inorganic Carbon (as C) 1.00 0.93 0.41 0.27 1.46 Organic Carbon (as C) 0.60 0.83 0.35 0.00 0.10 Inorganic Carbon (as CO2) 3.67 3.43 1.50 1.00 5.00 Source: FIPR (2003a). 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT Phosphate rock production data used in the emission calculations were developed by the USGS through monthly and semiannual voluntary surveys of the active phosphate rock mines during 2015. For previous years in the time series, USGS provided the data disaggregated regionally; however, beginning in 2006, only total U.S. phosphate rock production was reported. Regional production for 2015 was estimated based on regional production data from previous years and multiplied by regionally-specific emission factors. There is uncertainty associated with the degree to which the estimated 2015 regional production data represents actual production in those regions. Total U.S. phosphate rock production data are not considered to be a significant source of uncertainty because all the domestic phosphate rock producers report their annual production to the USGS. Data for exports of phosphate rock used in the emission calculation are reported by phosphate rock producers and are not considered to be a significant source of uncertainty. Data for imports for consumption are based on international trade data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau. These U.S. government economic data are not considered to be a significant source of uncertainty. An additional source of uncertainty in the calculation of CO 2 emissions from phosphoric acid production is the carbonate composition of phosphate rock; the composition of phosphate rock varies depending upon where the material is mined, and may also vary over time. The Inventory relies on one study (FIPR 2003a) of chemical composition of the phosphate rock; limited data are available beyond this study. Another source of uncertainty is the disposition of the organic carbon content of the phosphate rock. A representative of the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) indicated that in the phosphoric acid production process, the organic C content of the mined phosphate rock generally remains in the phosphoric acid product, which is what produces the color of the phosphoric acid product (FIPR 2003b). Organic carbon is therefore not included in the calculation of CO 2 emissions from phosphoric acid production. A third source of uncertainty is the assumption that all domestically-produced phosphate rock is used in phosphoric acid production and used without first being calcined. Calcination of the phosphate rock would result in conversion of some of the organic C in the phosphate rock into CO 2. However, according to air permit information available to the public, at least one facility has calcining units permitted for operation (NCDENR 2013). Finally, USGS indicated that approximately 7 percent of domestically-produced phosphate rock is used to manufacture elemental phosphorus and other phosphorus-based chemicals, rather than phosphoric acid (USGS 2006). According to USGS, there is only one domestic producer of elemental phosphorus, in Idaho, and no data were available concerning the annual production of this single producer. Elemental phosphorus is produced by reducing phosphate rock with coal coke, and it is therefore assumed that 100 percent of the carbonate content of the phosphate rock will be converted to CO 2 in the elemental phosphorus production process. The calculation for CO 2 emissions is based on the assumption that phosphate rock consumption, for purposes other than phosphoric acid production, results in CO 2 emissions from 100 percent of the inorganic carbon content in phosphate rock, but none from the organic carbon content. The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 4-56. 2015 phosphoric acid production CO 2 emissions were estimated to be between 0.9 and 1.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. at the 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of approximately 19 percent below and 20 percent above the emission estimate of 1.1 MMT CO 2 Eq. 4-58 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 Table 4-56: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CO2 Emissions from Phosphoric Acid Production (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Phosphoric Acid Production CO2 1.1 0.9 1.4 -19% +20% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure consistency in emissions from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Recalculations Discussion Relative to the previous Inventory, the phosphate rock import data for 2011 through 2014 were revised based on updated data publicly available from USGS (USGS 2016). This revision resulted in a change in emission estimates ranging from approximately 2 to 5 percent across the time series of 2011 to 2014 compared to the previous inventory report. Planned Improvements EPA continues to evaluate potential improvements to the Inventory estimates for this source category, which include direct integration of EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) data for 2010 through 2015 and the use of reported GHGRP data to update the inorganic C content of phosphate rock for prior years. Confidentiality of CBI is being assessed, in addition to the applicability of EPA’s GHGRP data for the averaged inorganic C content data (by region) from 2010 through 2015 to inform estimates in prior years in the required time series (i.e., 1990 through 2009). In implementing improvements and integration of data from EPA’s GHGRP, the latest guidance from the IPCC on the use of facility-level data in national inventories will be relied upon. 43 This planned improvement is still in development by EPA and have not been implemented into the current inventory report. 4.16 Iron and Steel Production (IPCC Source Category 2C1) and Metallurgical Coke Production Iron and steel production is a multi-step process that generates process-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) and methane (CH 4) as raw materials are refined into iron and then transformed into crude steel. Emissions from conventional fuels (e.g., natural gas, fuel oil) consumed for energy purposes during the production of iron and steel are accounted for in the Energy chapter. Iron and steel production includes six distinct production processes: coke production, sinter production, direct reduced iron (DRI) production, pig iron production, electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production, and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production. The number of production processes at a particular plant is dependent upon the specific plant configuration. In addition to the production processes mentioned above, CO 2 is also generated at iron and steel mills through the consumption of process byproducts (e.g., blast furnace gas, coke oven gas) used for 43 See . Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-59

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 %Plants a %Plants

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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