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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 to iron and steel production. These data and carbon contents produce a relatively accurate estimate of CO 2 emissions. However, there are uncertainties associated with each. The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 4-71 for metallurgical coke production and iron and steel production. Total CO 2 emissions from metallurgical coke production and iron and steel production for 2015 were estimated to be between 47.2 and 63.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. at the 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of approximately 15 percent below and 15 percent above the emission estimate of 55.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. Total CH 4 emissions from metallurgical coke production and iron and steel production for 2015 were estimated to be between 0.008 and 0.01 MMT CO 2 Eq. at the 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of approximately 19 percent below and 19 percent above the emission estimate of 0.009 MMT CO 2 Eq. Table 4-71: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CO2 and CH4 Emissions from Iron and Steel Production and Metallurgical Coke Production (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gas 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Metallurgical Coke & Iron and Steel Production CO2 55.4 47.2 63.6 -15% +15% Metallurgical Coke & Iron and Steel Production CH4 + + + -19% +19% + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq. a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure consistency in emissions from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Recalculations Discussion Updated data was obtained for 2014 direct reduced iron production (USGS 2015), 2014 process inputs for metallurgical coke production, outputs of U.S. metallurgical coke production and direct reduced iron consumption for BOF steel production (EIA 2016a). These revisions resulted in an increase of 2014 CO 2 emissions estimates from metallurgical coke production and 2014 CO 2 emissions estimates from iron and steel production by 4 percent each compared to the previous inventory report. Planned Improvements Future improvements involve improving activity data and emission factor sources for estimating CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from pellet production. The EPA has identified a potential activity data source for national-level pellet production and plans to update estimates based on this data for the final draft of this year’s inventory report (i.e., 1990 through 2015), pending schedule and resources. The EPA has reported pellet production activity data into Table 4-69 of the methodology section, as shown above, but has not incorporated that data into emissions estimates. EPA will also evaluate and analyze data reported under EPA’s GHGRP to improve the emission estimates for this and other Iron and Steel Production process categories. Particular attention will be made to ensure time series consistency of the emissions estimates presented in future Inventory reports, consistent with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines. This is required as the facility-level reporting data from EPA’s GHGRP, with the program's initial requirements for reporting of emissions in calendar year 2010, are not available for all inventory years (i.e., 1990 through 2009) as required for this Inventory. In implementing improvements and integration of data from EPA’s GHGRP, the latest guidance from the IPCC on the use of facility-level data in national inventories will be relied upon. 44 44 See . 4-68 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Additional improvements include accounting for emission estimates for the production of metallurgical coke to the Energy chapter as well as identifying the amount of carbonaceous materials, other than coking coal, consumed at merchant coke plants. Other potential improvements include identifying the amount of coal used for direct injection and the amount of coke breeze, coal tar, and light oil produced during coke production. Efforts will also be made to identify information to better characterize emissions from the use of process gases and fuels within the Energy and Industrial Processes and Product Use chapters. This planned improvement is still in development and is not included in this current inventory report. 4.17 Ferroalloy Production (IPCC Source Category 2C2) Carbon dioxide (CO 2) and methane (CH 4) are emitted from the production of several ferroalloys. Ferroalloys are composites of iron (Fe) and other elements such as silicon (Si), manganese (Mn), and chromium (Cr). Emissions from fuels consumed for energy purposes during the production of ferroalloys are accounted for in the Energy chapter. Emissions from the production of two types of ferrosilicon (25 to 55 percent and 56 to 95 percent silicon), silicon metal (96 to 99 percent silicon), and miscellaneous alloys (32 to 65 percent silicon) have been calculated. Emissions from the production of ferrochromium and ferromanganese are not included here because of the small number of manufacturers of these materials in the United States, and therefore, government information disclosure rules prevent the publication of production data for these production facilities. Similar to emissions from the production of iron and steel, CO 2 is emitted when metallurgical coke is oxidized during a high-temperature reaction with iron and the selected alloying element. Due to the strong reducing environment, CO is initially produced, and eventually oxidized to CO 2. A representative reaction equation for the production of 50 percent ferrosilicon (FeSi) is given below: Fe 2 O 3 + 2SiO 2 + 7C → 2FeSi + 7CO While most of the carbon contained in the process materials is released to the atmosphere as CO 2, a percentage is also released as CH 4 and other volatiles. The amount of CH 4 that is released is dependent on furnace efficiency, operation technique, and control technology. When incorporated in alloy steels, ferroalloys are used to alter the material properties of the steel. Ferroalloys are used primarily by the iron and steel industry, and production trends closely follow that of the iron and steel industry. Twelve companies in the United States produce ferroalloys (USGS 2016a). Emissions of CO 2 from ferroalloy production in 2015 were 2.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. (1,960 kt CO 2) (see Table 4-72 and Table 4-73), which is a 9 percent reduction since 1990. Emissions of CH 4 from ferroalloy production in 2015 were 0.01 MMT CO 2 Eq. (0.5 kt CH 4), which is a 19 percent decrease since 1990. Table 4-72: CO2 and CH4 Emissions from Ferroalloy Production (MMT CO2 Eq.) Gas 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CO2 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 CH4 + + + + + + + Total 2.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq. Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-69

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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