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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2000 through 2006 Emissions for the years 2000 through 2006—the period during which Partners began the consequential application of fluorinated greenhouse gas-reduction measures—were estimated using a combination of Partner-reported emissions and adjusted PEVM modeled emissions. The emissions reported by Partners for each year were accepted as the quantity emitted from the share of the industry represented by those Partners. Remaining emissions, those from non-Partners, were estimated using PEVM, with one change. To ensure time series consistency and to reflect the increasing use of remote clean technology (which increases the efficiency of the production process while lowering emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases), the average non-Partner emission factor (PEVM emission factor) was assumed to begin declining gradually during this period. Specifically, the non-Partner emission factor for each year was determined by linear interpolation, using the end points of 1999 (the original PEVM emission factor) and 2011 (a new emission factor determined for the non-Partner population based on GHGRP-reported data, described below). The portion of the U.S. total attributed to non-Partners is obtained by multiplying PEVM’s total U.S. emissions figure by the non-Partner share of U.S. total silicon capacity for each year as described above. 61 Gas-specific emissions from non-Partners were estimated using linear interpolation of gas-specific emission distribution of 1999 (assumed same as total U.S. Industry in 1994) and 2011 (calculated from a subset of non-Partner facilities from GHGRP reported emissions data). Annual updates to PEVM reflect published figures for actual silicon consumption from VLSI Research, Inc., revisions and additions to the world population of semiconductor manufacturing plants, and changes in IC fabrication practices within the semiconductor industry (see ITRS 2008 and Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Industry 2011). 62,63,64 The N 2O emissions were estimated using the same methodology as the 1995 through 1999 methodology. 2007 through 2010 For the years 2007 through 2010, emissions were also estimated using a combination of Partner reported emissions and adjusted PEVM modeled emissions to provide estimates for non-Partners; however, two improvements were made to the estimation method employed for the previous years in the time series. First, the 2007 through 2010 emission estimates account for the fact that Partners and non-Partners employ different distributions of manufacturing technologies, with the Partners using manufacturing technologies with greater transistor densities and 61 This approach assumes that the distribution of linewidth technologies is the same between Partners and non-Partners. As discussed in the description of the method used to estimate 2007 emissions, this is not always the case. 62 Special attention was given to the manufacturing capacity of plants that use wafers with 300 mm diameters because the actual capacity of these plants is ramped up to design capacity, typically over a 2–3 year period. To prevent overstating estimates of partner-capacity shares from plants using 300 mm wafers, design capacities contained in WFF were replaced with estimates of actual installed capacities for 2004 published by Citigroup Smith Barney (2005). Without this correction, the partner share of capacity would be overstated, by approximately 5 percent. For perspective, approximately 95 percent of all new capacity additions in 2004 used 300 mm wafers, and by year-end those plants, on average, could operate at approximately 70 percent of the design capacity. For 2005, actual installed capacities were estimated using an entry in the World Fab Watch database (April 2006 Edition) called “wafers/month, 8-inch equivalent,” which denoted the actual installed capacity instead of the fully-ramped capacity. For 2006, actual installed capacities of new fabs were estimated using an average monthly ramp rate of 1100 wafer starts per month (wspm) derived from various sources such as semiconductor fabtech, industry analysts, and articles in the trade press. The monthly ramp rate was applied from the first-quarter of silicon volume (FQSV) to determine the average design capacity over the 2006 period. 63 In 2006, the industry trend in co-ownership of manufacturing facilities continued. Several manufacturers, who are Partners, now operate fabs with other manufacturers, who in some cases are also Partners and in other cases are not Partners. Special attention was given to this occurrence when estimating the Partner and non-Partner shares of U.S. manufacturing capacity. 64 Two versions of PEVM are used to model non-Partner emissions during this period. For the years 2000 to 2003 PEVM v3.2.0506.0507 was used to estimate non-Partner emissions. During this time, discrete devices did not use PFCs during manufacturing and therefore only memory and logic devices were modeled in the PEVM v3.2.0506.0507. From 2004 onwards, discrete device fabrication started to use PFCs, hence PEVM v4.0.0701.0701, the first version of PEVM to account for PFC emissions from discrete devices, was used to estimate non-Partner emissions for this time period. 4-94 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 therefore greater numbers of layers. 65 Second, the scope of the 2007 through 2010 estimates was expanded relative to the estimates for the years 2000 through 2006 to include emissions from research and development (R&D) fabs. This additional enhancement was feasible through the use of more detailed data published in the WFF. PEVM databases were updated annually as described above. The published world average capacity utilization for 2007 through 2010 was used for production fabs, while for R&D fabs a 20 percent figure was assumed (SIA 2009). In addition, publicly-available actual utilization data was used to account for differences in fab utilization for manufacturers of discrete and IC products for 2010 emissions for non-Partners. The Semiconductor Capacity Utilization (SICAS) Reports from SIA provides the global semiconductor industry capacity and utilization, differentiated by discrete and IC products (SIA, 2009 through 2011). PEVM estimates were adjusted using technology-weighted capacity shares that reflect the relative influence of different utilization. Gas-specific emissions for non-Partners were estimated using the same method as for 2000 through 2006. The N 2O emissions were estimated using the same methodology as the 1995 through 1999 methodology. 2011 through 2012 and 2015 The fifth method for estimating emissions from semiconductor manufacturing covers the period 2011 through 2012 and 2015. This methodology does not include emissions of non-reporting populations for the years 2013 and 2014 because for the non-reporting population, emission factors and facility-specific production were not estimated. The emissions for these time periods are estimated using a sixth method described below. This methodology differs from previous years because the EPA’s Partnership with the semiconductor industry ended (in 2010) and reporting under EPA’s GHGRP began. Manufacturers whose estimated uncontrolled emissions equal or exceed 25,000 MT CO 2 Eq. per year (based on default F-GHG-specific emission factors and total capacity in terms of substrate area) are required to report their emissions to EPA. This population of reporters to EPA’s GHGRP included both historical Partners of EPA’s PFC Reduction/Climate Partnership as well as non-Partners. In EPA’s GHGRP, the population of non-Partner facilities also included manufacturers that use GaAs technology in addition to Si technology. 66 Emissions from the population of manufacturers that were below the reporting threshold were also estimated for this time period using EPA-developed emission factors and estimates of facility-specific production obtained from WFF. Inventory totals reflect the emissions from both populations. Under EPA’s GHGRP, semiconductor manufacturing facilities report emissions of F-GHGs used in etch and clean processes as well as emissions of fluorinated heat transfer fluids. (Fluorinated heat transfer fluids are used to control process temperatures, thermally test devices, and clean substrate surfaces, among other applications.) They also report N 2O emissions from CVD and other processes. The F-GHGs and N 2O were aggregated, by gas, across all semiconductor manufacturing GHGRP reporters to calculate gas-specific emissions for the GHGRP-reporting segment of the U.S. industry. At this time, emissions that result from heat transfer fluid use are not included in the total emission estimates from semiconductor manufacturing, though GHGRP reported emissions have been compiled and presented for informational purposes in Table 4-91. For the segment of the semiconductor industry that is below EPA’s GHGRP reporting threshold, and for R&D facilities, which are not covered by EPA’s GHGRP, emission estimates are based on EPA-developed emission factors for the F-GHGs and N 2O and estimates of manufacturing activity. The new emission factors (in units of mass of CO 2 Eq./TMLA [MSI]) are based on the emissions reported by facilities under EPA’s GHGRP and TMLA estimates for these facilities from the WFF (SEMI 2012, SEMI 2013, and SEMI 2016). In a refinement of the method used in prior years to estimate emissions for the non-Partner population, different emission factors were developed for different subpopulations of fabs, one for facilities that manufacture devices on Si wafers and one for facilities that manufacture on GaAs wafers. An analysis of the emission factors of reporting fabs showed that the 65 EPA considered applying this change to years before 2007, but found that it would be difficult due to the large amount of data (i.e., technology-specific global and non-Partner TMLA) that would have to be examined and manipulated for each year. This effort did not appear to be justified given the relatively small impact of the improvement on the total estimate for 2007 and the fact that the impact of the improvement would likely be lower for earlier years because the estimated share of emissions accounted for by non-Partners is growing as Partners continue to implement emission-reduction efforts. 66 GaAs and Si technologies refer to the wafer on which devices are manufactured, which use the same PFCs but in different ways. Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-95

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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