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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 modeled estimates of the quantity of equipment or products sold each year containing these chemicals and the amount of the chemical required to manufacture and/or maintain equipment and products over time. Emissions for each end-use were estimated by applying annual leak rates and release profiles, which account for the lag in emissions from equipment as they leak over time. By aggregating the data for 65 different end-uses, the model produces estimates of annual use and emissions of each compound. Further information on the Vintaging Model is contained in Annex 3.9. Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency – TO BE UPDATED FOR FINAL INVENTORY REPORT Given that emissions of ODS substitutes occur from thousands of different kinds of equipment and from millions of point and mobile sources throughout the United States, emission estimates must be made using analytical tools such as the Vintaging Model or the methods outlined in IPCC (2006). Though the model is more comprehensive than the IPCC default methodology, significant uncertainties still exist with regard to the levels of equipment sales, equipment characteristics, and end-use emissions profiles that were used to estimate annual emissions for the various compounds. The Vintaging Model estimates emissions from 65 end-uses. The uncertainty analysis, however, quantifies the level of uncertainty associated with the aggregate emissions resulting from the top 21 end-uses, comprising over 95 percent of the total emissions, and 6 other end-uses. These 27 end-uses comprise 97 percent of the total emissions, equivalent to 156.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. In an effort to improve the uncertainty analysis, additional end-uses are added annually, with the intention that over time uncertainty for all emissions from the Vintaging Model will be fully characterized. Any end-uses included in previous years’ uncertainty analysis were included in the current uncertainty analysis, whether or not those end-uses were included in the top 95 percent of emissions from ODS substitutes. In order to calculate uncertainty, functional forms were developed to simplify some of the complex “vintaging” aspects of some end-use sectors, especially with respect to refrigeration and air-conditioning, and to a lesser degree, fire extinguishing. These sectors calculate emissions based on the entire lifetime of equipment, not just equipment put into commission in the current year, thereby necessitating simplifying equations. The functional forms used variables that included growth rates, emission factors, transition from ODSs, change in charge size as a result of the transition, disposal quantities, disposal emission rates, and either stock for the current year or original ODS consumption. Uncertainty was estimated around each variable within the functional forms based on expert judgment, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed. The most significant sources of uncertainty for this source category include the emission factors for residential unitary air-conditioners, as well as the percent of non-MDI aerosol propellant that is HFC-152a. The results of the Approach 2 quantitative uncertainty analysis are summarized in Table 4-97. Substitution of ozone depleting substances HFC and PFC emissions were estimated to be between 154.2 and 172.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. at the 95 percent confidence level. This indicates a range of approximately 1.4 percent below to 10.3 percent above the emission estimate of 156.4 MMT CO 2 Eq., which comprises 97 percent of total emissions. Table 4-97: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for HFC and PFC Emissions from ODS Substitutes (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source Gases 2015 Emission Estimate Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Estimate b (MMT CO2 Eq.) a (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Substitution of Ozone HFCs and Depleting Substances PFCs 156.4 154.2 172.5 -1.4% +10.3% a 2015 emission estimates and the uncertainty range presented in this table correspond to selected end-uses within the aerosols, foams, solvents, fire extinguishing agents, and refrigerants sectors that comprise 97 percent of total emissions, but not for other remaining categories. Therefore, because the uncertainty associated with emissions from “other” ODS substitutes was not estimated, they were excluded in the uncertainty estimates reported in this table. b Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 4-104 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Comparison of Reported Consumption to Modeled Consumption of HFCs Data from EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) was also used to perform quality control on the modeled emissions from this source category. To do so, consumption patterns demonstrated through data reported under GHGRP Subpart OO: Suppliers of Industrial Greenhouse Gases and Subpart QQ: Imports and Exports of Equipment Pre-charged with Fluorinated GHGs or Containing Fluorinated GHGs in Closed-cell Foams were compared to the modeled demand for new saturated HFCs (excluding HFC-23) used as ODS substitutes from the Vintaging Model. The collection of data from suppliers of HFCs enables EPA to calculate the reporters’ aggregated net supply–the sum of the quantities of chemical produced or imported into the United States less the sum of the quantities of chemical transformed (used as a feedstock in the production of other chemicals), destroyed, or exported from the United States. 74 This allows for a quality control check on emissions from this source because the Vintaging Model uses modeled demand for new chemical as a proxy for total amount supplied, which is similar to net supply, as an input to the emission calculations in the model. Reported Net Supply (GHGRP Top-Down Estimate) Under EPA’s GHGRP, suppliers (i.e., producers, importers, and exporters) of HFCs under Subpart OO began annually reporting their production, transformation, destruction, imports, and exports to EPA in 2011 (for supply that occurred in 2010) and suppliers of HFCs under Subpart QQ began annually reporting their imports and exports to EPA in 2012 (for supply that occurred in 2011). Beginning in 2015, bulk consumption data for aggregated HFCs reported under Subpart OO were made publicly available under EPA’s GHGRP. Data include all saturated HFCs (except HFC-23) reported to EPA across the GHGRP-reporting time series (2010 through 2015). The data include all 26 such saturated HFCs listed in Table A-1 of 40 CFR Part 98, where regulations for EPA’s GHGRP are promulgated, though not all species were reported in each reporting year. For the first time in 2016, net imports of HFCs contained in pre-charged equipment or closed-cell foams reported under Subpart QQ were made publicly available under EPA’s GHGRP across the GHGRP-reporting time series (2010 through 2015). Modeled Consumption (Vintaging Model Bottom-Up Estimate) The Vintaging Model, used to estimate emissions from this source category, calculates chemical demand based on the quantity of equipment and products sold, serviced and retired each year, and the amount of the chemical required to manufacture and/or maintain the equipment and products. 75 It is assumed that the total demand equals the amount supplied by either new production, chemical import, or quantities recovered (usually reclaimed) and placed back on the market. In the Vintaging Model, demand for new chemical, as a proxy for consumption, is calculated as any chemical demand (either for new equipment or for servicing existing equipment) that cannot be met through recycled or recovered material. No distinction is made in the Vintaging Model between whether that need is met through domestic production or imports. To calculate emissions, the Vintaging Model estimates the quantity released from equipment over time. Thus, verifying the Vintaging Model’s calculated consumption against GHGRP reported data is one way to check the Vintaging Model’s emission estimates. There are ten saturated HFC species modeled in the Vintaging Model: HFC-23, HFC-32, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-227ea, HFC-236fa, HFC-245fa, and HFC-43-10mee. For the purposes of this comparison, only nine HFC species are included (HFC-23 is excluded), to more closely align with the aggregated total reported under EPA’s GHGRP. While some amounts of less-used saturated HFCs, including isomers of those 74 Chemical that is exported, transformed, or destroyed—unless otherwise imported back to the United States—will never be emitted in the United States. 75 The model builds an inventory of the in-use stock of equipment and products and ODSs and HFCs in each of the subapplications. Emissions are subsequently estimated by applying annual and disposal emission rates to each population of equipment and products. Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-105

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    Land Converted to Forest Land (92.0

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    Belowground Live Biomass 2.3 2.0 2.

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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