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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 included in the Vintaging Model, are reportable under EPA’s GHGRP, the data are believed to represent an amount comparable to the modeled estimates as a quality control check. Comparison Results and Discussion Comparing the estimates of consumption from these two approaches (i.e., reported and modeled) ultimately supports and improves estimates of emissions, as noted in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (which refer to fluorinated greenhouse gas consumption based on supplies as “potential emissions”): [W]hen considered along with estimates of actual emissions, the potential emissions approach can assist in validation of completeness of sources covered and as a QC check by comparing total domestic consumption as calculated in this ‘potential emissions approach’ per compound with the sum of all activity data of the various uses (IPCC 2006). Table 4-98 and Figure 4-2 compare the net supply of saturated HFCs (excluding HFC-23) in MMT CO 2 Eq. as determined from Subpart OO (industrial GHG suppliers) and Subpart QQ (supply of HFCs in products) of EPA’s GHGRP for the years 2010 through 2015 and the chemical demand as calculated by the Vintaging Model for the same time series. Table 4-98: U.S. HFC Consumption (MMT CO2 Eq.) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Reported Net Supply (GHGRP) 235 249 245 295 279 290 Industrial GHG Suppliers 235 241 227 278 254 264 Imports of HFCs in Products N/A a 7 18 17 25 26 Modeled Supply (Vintaging Model) 256 256 273 278 282 285 Percent Difference 9% 3% 11% -6% 1% -2% a Importers and exporters of fluorinated gases in products were not required to report until 2011. Figure 4-2: U.S. HFC Consumption (MMT CO2 Eq.) 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 As shown, the estimates from the Vintaging Model are generally higher than the GHGRP estimates by an average of 3 percent across the time series (i.e., 2010 through 2015). Potential reasons for these differences include: The Vintaging Model includes fewer HFCs than are reported to EPA’s GHGRP. However, the additional reported HFCs represent a small fraction of total HFC use for this source category, both in GWP-weighted and unweighted terms, and as such, it is not expected that the additional HFCs reported to EPA are a major driver for the difference between the two sets of estimates. To the extent lower-GWP isomers were used in 4-106 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 lieu of the modeled chemicals (e.g., HFC-134 instead of HFC-134a), lower CO 2 Eq. amounts in the EPA’s GHGRP data compared to the modeled estimates would be expected. Because the top-down data are reported at the time of actual production or import and the bottom-up data are calculated at the time of actual placement on the market, there could be a temporal discrepancy when comparing data. Because the EPA’s GHGRP data generally increases over time (although some year-toyear variations exist) and the Vintaging Model estimates also increase, EPA would expect the modeled estimates to be slightly lower than the corresponding GHGRP data due to this temporal effect. Under EPA’s GHGRP, all facilities that produce HFCs are required to report their quantities, whereas importers or exporters of HFCs or pre-charged equipment and closed-cell foams that contain HFCs are only required to report if either their total imports or their total exports of greenhouse gases are greater than or equal to 25,000 metric tons of CO 2 Eq. per year. Thus, some imports may not be accounted for in the GHGRP data. On the other hand, some exports might also not be accounted for in this data. In some years, imports and exports may be greater than consumption because the excess is being used to increase chemical or equipment stockpiles; in other years, the opposite may hold true. Similarly, relocation of manufacturing facilities or recovery from the recession could contribute to variability in imports or exports. Averaging imports and exports over multiple years can minimize the impact of such fluctuations. For example, when the 2012 and 2013 net additions to the supply are averaged, as shown in Table 4-99, the percent difference between the consumption estimates decreases compared to the 2012-only estimates. Table 4-99: Averaged U.S. HFC Demand (MMT CO2 Eq.) 2010-2011 Avg. 2011-2012 Avg. 2012-2013 Avg. 2013-2014 Avg. 2014-2015 Avg. Reported Net Supply (GHGRP) 242 247 270 287 284 Modeled Demand (Vintaging Model) 256 264 275 280 284 Percent Difference 6% 7% 2% -2% 0% 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 The Vintaging Model does not reflect the dynamic nature of reported HFC consumption, with significant differences seen in each year. Whereas the Vintaging Model projects a slowly increasing overall demand, actual consumption for specific chemicals or equipment may vary over time and could even switch from positive to negative (indicating more chemical exported, transformed, or destroyed than produced or imported in a given year). Furthermore, consumption as calculated in the Vintaging Model is a function of demand not met by disposal recovery. If, in any given year, a significant number of units are disposed, there will be a large amount of additional recovery in that year that can cause an unexpected and not modeled decrease in demand and thus a decrease in consumption. On the other hand, if market, economic, or other factors cause less than expected disposal and recovery, actual supply would decrease, and hence consumption would increase to meet that demand not satisfied by recovered quantities, increasing the GHGRP data and bringing those totals closer to the Vintaging Model estimates. The Vintaging Model is used to estimate the emissions that occur in the United States. As such, all equipment or products that contain ODS or alternatives, including saturated HFCs, are assumed to consume and emit chemicals equally as like equipment or products originally produced in the United States. The GHGRP data from Subpart OO (industrial GHG suppliers) includes HFCs produced or imported and used to fill or manufacture products that are then exported from the United States. The Vintaging Model estimates of demand and supply are not meant to incorporate such chemical. Likewise, chemicals may be used outside the United States to create products or charge equipment that is then imported to and used in the United States. The Vintaging Model estimates of demand and supply are meant to capture this chemical, as it will lead to emissions inside the United States. The GHGRP data from Subpart QQ (supply of HFCs in products) accounts for some of these differences; however, the scope of Subpart QQ does not cover all such equipment or products and the chemical contained therein. Depending on whether the United States is a net importer or net exporter of such chemical, this factor may account for some of the difference shown above or might lead to a further discrepancy. One factor, however, would only lead to modeled estimates to be even higher than the estimates shown and hence for most years higher than EPA’s GHGRP data: Saturated HFCs are also known to be used as a cover gas in the production of magnesium. The Vintaging Model estimates here do not include the amount of HFCs for this use, but rather only the amount for uses Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-107

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    1 Figure 1-1: National Inventory Ar

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    1 2 Figure 3-6: Annual Deviations f

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 2 3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (10,828 kt) (see

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    Land Converted to Forest Land (92.0

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    1 2 3 4 result in cessation of emis

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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