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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 1990 through 1998 Emissions from Electric Power Systems Emissions from electric power systems from 1990 through 1998 were estimated based on (1) the emissions estimated for this source category in 1999, which, as discussed in the next section, were based on the emissions reported during the first year of EPA’s SF 6 Emission Reduction Partnership for Electric Power Systems (Partnership), and (2) the RAND survey of global SF 6 emissions. Because most utilities participating in the Partnership reported emissions only for 1999 through 2011, modeling was used to estimate SF 6 emissions from electric power systems for the years 1990 through 1998. To perform this modeling, U.S. emissions were assumed to follow the same trajectory as global emissions from this source during the 1990 to 1999 period. To estimate global emissions, the RAND survey of global SF 6 sales were used, together with the following equation for estimating emissions, which is derived from the mass-balance equation for chemical emissions (Volume 3, Equation 7.3) in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. 77 (Although Equation 7.3 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines appears in the discussion of substitutes for ozone-depleting substances, it is applicable to emissions from any long-lived pressurized equipment that is periodically serviced during its lifetime.) Emissions (kilograms SF 6) = SF 6 purchased to refill existing equipment (kilograms) + nameplate capacity of retiring equipment (kilograms) 78 Note that the above equation holds whether the gas from retiring equipment is released or recaptured; if the gas is recaptured, it is used to refill existing equipment, thereby lowering the amount of SF 6 purchased by utilities for this purpose. Gas purchases by utilities and equipment manufacturers from 1961 through 2003 are available from the RAND (2004) survey. To estimate the quantity of SF 6 released or recovered from retiring equipment, the nameplate capacity of retiring equipment in a given year was assumed to equal 81.2 percent of the amount of gas purchased by electrical equipment manufacturers 40 years previous (e.g., in 2000, the nameplate capacity of retiring equipment was assumed to equal 81.2 percent of the gas purchased in 1960). The remaining 18.8 percent was assumed to have been emitted at the time of manufacture. The 18.8 percent emission factor is an average of IPCC default SF 6 emission rates for Europe and Japan for 1995 (IPCC 2006). The 40-year lifetime for electrical equipment is also based on IPCC (2006). The results of the two components of the above equation were then summed to yield estimates of global SF 6 emissions from 1990 through 1999. U.S. emissions between 1990 and 1999 are assumed to follow the same trajectory as global emissions during this period. To estimate U.S. emissions, global emissions for each year from 1990 through 1998 were divided by the estimated global emissions from 1999. The result was a time series of factors that express each year’s global emissions as a multiple of 1999 global emissions. Historical U.S. emissions were estimated by multiplying the factor for each respective year by the estimated U.S. emissions of SF 6 from electric power systems in 1999 (estimated to be 14.3 MMT CO 2 Eq.). Two factors may affect the relationship between the RAND sales trends and actual global emission trends. One is utilities’ inventories of SF 6 in storage containers. When SF 6 prices rise, utilities are likely to deplete internal inventories before purchasing new SF 6 at the higher price, in which case SF 6 sales will fall more quickly than emissions. On the other hand, when SF 6 prices fall, utilities are likely to purchase more SF 6 to rebuild inventories, in which case sales will rise more quickly than emissions. This effect was accounted for by applying 3-year smoothing to utility SF 6 sales data. The other factor that may affect the relationship between the RAND sales trends and actual global emissions is the level of imports from and exports to Russia and China. SF 6 production in these countries is not included in the RAND survey and is not accounted for in any another manner by RAND. However, atmospheric studies confirm that the downward trend in estimated global emissions between 1995 and 1998 was real (see the Uncertainty discussion below). 77 Ideally, sales to utilities in the U.S. between 1990 and 1999 would be used as a model. However, this information was not available. There were only two U.S. manufacturers of SF6 during this time period, so it would not have been possible to conceal sensitive sales information by aggregation. 78 Nameplate capacity is defined as the amount of SF6 within fully charged electrical equipment. 4-110 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 1999 through 2015 Emissions from Electric Power Systems Emissions from electric power systems from 1999 to 2015 were estimated based on: (1) reporting from utilities participating in EPA’s SF 6 Emission Reduction Partnership for Electric Power Systems (Partners), which began in 1999; (2) reporting from utilities covered by the EPA’s GHGRP, which began in 2012 for emissions occurring in 2011 (GHGRP-Only Reporters); and (3) the relationship between utilities’ reported emissions and their transmission miles as reported in the 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, and 2013 Utility Data Institute (UDI) Directories of Electric Power Producers and Distributors (UDI 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013), which was applied to the electric power systems that do not report to EPA (Non-Reporters). (Transmission miles are defined as the miles of lines carrying voltages above 34.5 kV). Partners Over the period from 1999 to 2015, Partner utilities, which for inventory purposes are defined as utilities that either currently are or previously have been part of the Partnership, 79 represented 48 percent, on average, of total U.S. transmission miles. Partner utilities estimated their emissions using a Tier 3 utility-level mass balance approach (IPCC 2006). If a Partner utility did not provide data for a particular year, emissions were interpolated between years for which data were available or extrapolated based on Partner-specific transmission mile growth rates. In 2012, many Partners began reporting their emissions (for 2011 and later years) through EPA’s GHGRP (discussed further below) rather than through the Partnership. In 2015, approximately 0.6 percent of the total emissions attributed to Partner utilities were reported through Partnership reports. Approximately 95 percent of the total emissions attributed to Partner utilities were reported and verified through EPA’s GHGRP. Partners without verified 2015 data accounted for approximately 5 percent of the total emissions attributed to Partner utilities. 80 GHGRP-Only Reporters EPA’s GHGRP requires users of SF 6 in electric power systems to report emissions if the facility has a total SF 6 nameplate capacity that exceeds 17,820 pounds. (This quantity is the nameplate capacity that would result in annual SF 6 emissions equal to 25,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent at the historical emission rate reported under the Partnership.) As under the Partnership, electric power systems that report their SF 6 emissions under EPA’s GHGRP are required to use the Tier 3 utility-level mass-balance approach. Many Partners began reporting their emissions through EPA’s GHGRP in 2012 (reporting emissions for 2011 and later years) because their nameplate capacity exceeded the reporting threshold. Partners who did not report through EPA’s GHGRP continued to report through the Partnership. In addition, many non-Partners began reporting to EPA for the first time through its GHGRP in 2012. Non-Partner emissions reported and verified under EPA’s GHGRP were compiled to form a new category of reported data (GHGRP-Only Reporters). GHGRP-Only Reporters accounted for 20 percent of U.S. transmission miles and 24 percent of estimated U.S. emissions from electric power system in 2015. 81 79 For the 2015 inventory, partners who had reported three years or less of data prior to 2006 were removed. Most of these partners had been removed from the list of current Partners, but remained in the inventory due to the extrapolation methodology for non-reporting partners. 80 It should be noted that data reported through EPA’s GHGRP must go through a verification process; only data verified as of September 1, 2016 could be used in the emission estimates for 2015. For Partners whose GHGRP data was not yet verified, emissions were extrapolated based upon historical Partner-specific transmission mile growth rates, and those Partners are included in the ‘non-reporting Partners’ category. For electric power systems, verification involved a series of electronic range, completeness, and algorithm checks for each report submitted. In addition, EPA manually reviewed the reported data and compared each facility’s reported transmission miles with the corresponding quantity in the UDI 2013 database (UDI 2013). In the first year of GHGRP reporting, EPA followed up with reporters where the discrepancy between the reported miles and the miles published by UDI was greater than 10 percent, with a goal to improve data quality. Only GHGRP data verified as of September 1, 2016 was included in the emission estimates for 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. 81 GHGRP-reported and Partner transmission miles from a number of facilities were equal to zero with non-zero emissions. These facilities emissions were added to the emissions totals for their respective parent companies when identifiable and not Industrial Processes and Product Use 4-111

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 %Plants a %Plants

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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Quality manual for the greenhouse gas inventory. Version 1.
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