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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 literature review indicated a trend toward a decrease in feed digestibility for those years. Beef cattle emissions decreased again from 2008 to 2015 as populations again decreased. Emissions from dairy cattle generally trended downward from 1990 to 2004, along with an overall dairy population decline during the same period. Similar to beef cattle, dairy cattle emissions rose from 2004 to 2007 due to population increases and a decrease in feed digestibility (based on an analysis of more than 350 dairy cow diets). Dairy cattle emissions have continued to trend upward since 2007, in line with dairy population increases. Regarding trends in other animals, populations of sheep have steadily declined, with an overall decrease of 54 percent since 1990. Horse populations are 56 percent greater than they were in 1990, but their numbers have been declining by about 2 percent annually since 2007. Goat populations increased by about 20 percent through 2007 but have since dropped below 1990 numbers, while swine populations have increased 19 percent since 1990. The population of American bison more than tripled over the 1990-2015 time period, while mules and asses have more than quadrupled. Methodology Livestock enteric fermentation emission estimate methodologies fall into two categories: cattle and other domesticated animals. Cattle, due to their large population, large size, and particular digestive characteristics, account for the majority of enteric fermentation CH 4 emissions from livestock in the United States. A more detailed methodology (i.e., IPCC Tier 2) was therefore applied to estimate emissions for all cattle. Emission estimates for other domesticated animals (horses, sheep, swine, goats, American bison, and mules and asses) were handled using a less detailed approach (i.e., IPCC Tier 1). While the large diversity of animal management practices cannot be precisely characterized and evaluated, significant scientific literature exists that provides the necessary data to estimate cattle emissions using the IPCC Tier 2 approach. The Cattle Enteric Fermentation Model (CEFM), developed by EPA and used to estimate cattle CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation, incorporates this information and other analyses of livestock population, feeding practices, and production characteristics. National cattle population statistics were disaggregated into the following cattle sub-populations: Dairy Cattle o Calves o Heifer Replacements o Cows Beef Cattle o Calves o Heifer Replacements o Heifer and Steer Stockers o Animals in Feedlots (Heifers and Steer) o Cows o Bulls Calf birth rates, end-of-year population statistics, detailed feedlot placement information, and slaughter weight data were used to create a transition matrix that models cohorts of individual animal types and their specific emission profiles. The key variables tracked for each of the cattle population categories are described in Annex 3.10. These variables include performance factors such as pregnancy and lactation as well as average weights and weight gain. Annual cattle population data were obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) QuickStats database (USDA 2016). Diet characteristics were estimated by region for dairy, foraging beef, and feedlot beef cattle. These diet characteristics were used to calculate digestible energy (DE) values (expressed as the percent of gross energy intake digested by the animal) and CH 4 conversion rates (Y m) (expressed as the fraction of gross energy converted to CH 4) for each regional population category. The IPCC recommends Y m ranges of 3.0±1.0 percent for feedlot cattle and 5-4 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 6.5±1.0 percent for other well-fed cattle consuming temperate-climate feed types (IPCC 2006). Given the availability of detailed diet information for different regions and animal types in the United States, DE and Y m values unique to the United States were developed. The diet characterizations and estimation of DE and Y m values were based on information from state agricultural extension specialists, a review of published forage quality studies and scientific literature, expert opinion, and modeling of animal physiology. The diet characteristics for dairy cattle were based on Donovan (1999) and an extensive review of nearly 20 years of literature from 1990 through 2009. Estimates of DE were national averages based on the feed components of the diets observed in the literature for the following year groupings: 1990-1993, 1994-1998, 1999-2003, 2004-2006, 2007, and 2008 onward. 2 Base year Y m values by region were estimated using Donovan (1999). As described in ERG (2016), a ruminant digestion model (COWPOLL, as selected in Kebreab et al. 2008) was used to evaluate Y m for each diet evaluated from the literature, and a function was developed to adjust regional values over time based on the national trend. Dairy replacement heifer diet assumptions were based on the observed relationship in the literature between dairy cow and dairy heifer diet characteristics. For feedlot animals, the DE and Y m values used for 1990 were recommended by Johnson (1999). Values for DE and Y m for 1991 through 1999 were linearly extrapolated based on the 1990 and 2000 data. DE and Y m values for 2000 onwards were based on survey data in Galyean and Gleghorn (2001) and Vasconcelos and Galyean (2007). For grazing beef cattle, Y m values were based on Johnson (2002), DE values for 1990 through 2006 were based on specific diet components estimated from Donovan (1999), and DE values from 2007 onwards were developed from an analysis by Archibeque (2011), based on diet information in Preston (2010) and USDA-APHIS:VS (2010). Weight and weight gains for cattle were estimated from Holstein (2010), Doren et al. (1989), Enns (2008), Lippke et al. (2000), Pinchack et al. (2004), Platter et al. (2003), Skogerboe et al. (2000), and expert opinion. See Annex 3.10 for more details on the method used to characterize cattle diets and weights in the United States. Calves younger than 4 months are not included in emission estimates because calves consume mainly milk and the IPCC recommends the use of a Y m of zero for all juveniles consuming only milk. Diets for calves aged 4 to 6 months are assumed to go through a gradual weaning from milk decreasing to 75 percent at 4 months, 50 percent at age 5 months, and 25 percent at age 6 months. The portion of the diet made up with milk still results in zero emissions. For the remainder of the diet, beef calf DE and Y m are set equivalent to those of beef replacement heifers, while dairy calf DE is set equal to that of dairy replacement heifers and dairy calf Y m is provided at 4 and 7 months of age by Soliva (2006). Estimates of Y m for 5 and 6 month old dairy calves are linearly interpolated from the values provided for 4 and 7 months. To estimate CH 4 emissions, the population was divided into state, age, sub-type (i.e., dairy cows and replacements, beef cows and replacements, heifer and steer stockers, heifers and steers in feedlots, bulls, beef calves 4 to 6 months, and dairy calves 4 to 6 months), and production (i.e., pregnant, lactating) groupings to more fully capture differences in CH 4 emissions from these animal types. The transition matrix was used to simulate the age and weight structure of each sub-type on a monthly basis in order to more accurately reflect the fluctuations that occur throughout the year. Cattle diet characteristics were then used in conjunction with Tier 2 equations from IPCC (2006) to produce CH 4 emission factors for the following cattle types: dairy cows, beef cows, dairy replacements, beef replacements, steer stockers, heifer stockers, steer feedlot animals, heifer feedlot animals, bulls, and calves. To estimate emissions from cattle, monthly population data from the transition matrix were multiplied by the calculated emission factor for each cattle type. More details are provided in Annex 3.10. Emission estimates for other animal types were based on average emission factors representative of entire populations of each animal type. Methane emissions from these animals accounted for a minor portion of total CH 4 emissions from livestock in the United States from 1990 through 2015. Additionally, the variability in emission factors for each of these other animal types (e.g., variability by age, production system, and feeding practice within each animal type) is less than that for cattle. Annual livestock population data for sheep; swine; goats; horses; mules and asses; and American bison were obtained for available years from USDA NASS (USDA 2016). Horse, goat and mule and ass population data were available for 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 (USDA 1992, 1997, 2016); the remaining years between 1990 and 2015 were interpolated and extrapolated from the available estimates (with the exception of goat populations being held constant between 1990 and 1992). American bison population 2 Due to inconsistencies in the 2003 literature values, the 2002 values were used for 2003, as well. Agriculture 5-5

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    Belowground Live Biomass 2.3 2.0 2.

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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