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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

Manure Management N2O

Manure Management N2O 17.7 14.9 22.0 -16% 24% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section. QA/QC and Verification Tier 1 and Tier 2 QA/QC activities were conducted consistent with the U.S. QA/QC plan. Tier 2 activities focused on comparing estimates for the previous and current Inventories for N 2O emissions from managed systems and CH 4 emissions from livestock manure. All errors identified were corrected. Order of magnitude checks were also conducted, and corrections made where needed. Manure N data were checked by comparing state-level data with bottom up estimates derived at the county level and summed to the state level. Similarly, a comparison was made by animal and WMS type for the full time series, between national level estimates for N excreted and the sum of county estimates for the full time series. Any updated data, including population, are validated by experts to ensure the changes are representative of the best available U.S.-specific data. The U.S.-specific values for TAM, Nex, VS, B o, and MCF were also compared to the IPCC default values and validated by experts. Although significant differences exist in some instances, these differences are due to the use of U.S.-specific data and the differences in U.S. agriculture as compared to other countries. The U.S. manure management emission estimates use the most reliable country-specific data, which are more representative of U.S. animals and systems than the IPCC (2006) default values. For additional verification, the implied CH 4 emission factors for manure management (kg of CH 4 per head per year) were compared against the default IPCC (2006) values. Table 5-9 presents the implied emission factors of kg of CH 4 per head per year used for the manure management emission estimates as well as the IPCC (2006) default emission factors. The U.S. implied emission factors fall within the range of the IPCC (2006) default values, except in the case of sheep, goats, and some years for horses and dairy cattle. The U.S. implied emission factors are greater than the IPCC (2006) default value for those animals due to the use of U.S.-specific data for typical animal mass and VS excretion. There is an increase in implied emission factors for dairy and swine across the time series. This increase reflects the dairy and swine industry trend towards larger farm sizes; large farms are more likely to manage manure as a liquid and therefore produce more CH 4 emissions. Table 5-9: IPCC (2006) Implied Emission Factor Default Values Compared with Calculated Values for CH4 from Manure Management (kg/head/year) IPCC Default Animal Type CH4 Emission Implied CH4 Emission Factors (kg/head/year) Factors (kg/head/year) 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Dairy Cattle 48-112 30.2 59.4 70.3 73.9 72.3 73.4 74.0 Beef Cattle 1-2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 Swine 10-45 11.5 15.0 14.5 14.8 14.2 13.8 14.5 Sheep 0.19-0.37 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Goats 0.13-0.26 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Poultry 0.02-1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Horses 1.56-3.13 4.3 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 American Bison NA 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 Mules and Asses 0.76-1.14 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 NA - Not Applicable In addition, default IPCC (2006) emission factors for N 2O were compared to the U.S. Inventory implied N 2O emission factors. Default N 2O emission factors from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines were used to estimate N 2O emission from each WMS in conjunction with U.S.-specific Nex values. The implied emission factors differed from the U.S. Inventory values due to the use of U.S.-specific Nex values and differences in populations present in each WMS throughout the time series. 5-14 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Recalculations Discussion The CEFM produces population, VS and Nex data for cattle, excepting calves, that are used in the manure management inventory. As a result, all changes to the CEFM described in Section 5.1 contributed to changes in the population, VS and Nex data used for calculating CH 4 and N 2O cattle emissions from manure management. In addition, the manure management emission estimates included the following recalculations relative to the previous Inventory: State animal populations were updated to reflect updated USDA NASS datasets, which resulted in population changes for: o Poultry in 2014; o Sheep in 2013; o Dairy heifers in 2008 through 2010, and 2014; o NOF cattle 2008 through 2010, and 2014; o OF cattle for 2008 through 2012, and 2014; o Both beef and dairy calves in 2008, 2009, and 2014; and o Swine in 2014 (USDA 2016a). WMS distribution data were updated with Census of Agriculture farm size distribution data, which resulted in WMS distribution changes for dairy cows and swine for 2008 through 2014, and poultry in 2010 (USDA 2016d). Temperature data were updated which resulted in MCF changes for goats, horses, mules, and sheep in 2014, as well as dairy cattle, beef cattle, swine and poultry from 2013 through 2014 (NOAA 2016). Anaerobic digester data were updated to reflect updated EPA AgSTAR datasets, which resulted in VS distribution changes for dairy cows, swine, and poultry from 2011 through 2014 (EPA 2016). These changes impacted CH 4 emission estimates for 2008 through 2014, overall increasing annual estimations from 0.6 to 3.1 percent. Dairy cow methane emissions increased by 1.0 percent in 2008 up to a 5.6 percent increase in 2014. Swine increased CH 4 emissions by about 0.2 percent in 2008 up to a 1.0 percent increase in 2013, but decreased CH 4 emissions in 2014 by about 0.7 percent. Planned Improvements The uncertainty analysis for manure management will be updated in future Inventories to more accurately assess uncertainty of emission calculations. This update is necessary due to the extensive changes in emission calculation methodology, including estimation of emissions at the WMS level and the use of new calculations and variables for indirect N 2O emissions. Potential data sources (such as the USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey) for updated WMS distribution estimates have been reviewed and discussed with USDA. EPA is working with USDA to obtain these data sources for potential use in future Inventory reports. In addition, future Inventory reports may present emissions on a monthly basis to show seasonal emission changes for each WMS; this update would help compare these Inventory data to other data and models. 5.3 Rice Cultivation (IPCC Source Category 3C) Most of the world’s rice is grown on flooded fields (Baicich 2013), and flooding creates anaerobic conditions that foster CH 4 production through a process known as methanogenesis. Approximately 60 to 90 percent of the CH 4 produced by methanogenic bacteria is oxidized in the soil and converted to CO 2 by methanotrophic bacteria. The remainder is emitted to the atmosphere (Holzapfel-Pschorn et al. 1985; Sass et al. 1990) or transported as dissolved CH 4 into groundwater and waterways (Neue et al. 1997). Methane is transported to the atmosphere primarily through the rice plants, but some CH 4 also escapes via ebullition (i.e., bubbling through the water) and to a much lesser extent by diffusion through the water (van Bodegom et al. 2001). Agriculture 5-15

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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