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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Rice cultivation areas are based on cropping and land use histories recorded in the USDA National Resources Inventory (NRI) survey (USDA-NRCS 2015). The NRI is a statistically-based sample of all non-federal land, and includes 380,956 survey points of which 1,588 are in locations with rice cultivation at the end of the NRI time series. The Tier 3 method is used to estimate CH 4 emissions from 1,393 of the NRI survey locations, and the remaining 195 survey locations are estimated with the Tier 1 method. Each NRI survey point is associated with an “expansion factor” that allows scaling of CH 4 emissions from NRI points to the entire country (i.e., each expansion factor represents the amount of area with the same land-use/management history as the sample point). Land-use and some management information in the NRI (e.g., crop type, soil attributes, and irrigation) were collected on a 5-year cycle beginning in 1982, along with cropping rotation data in 4 out of 5 years for each 5 year time period (i.e., 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1987, 1989 to 1992, and 1994 to 1997). The NRI program began collecting annual data in 1998, with data currently available through 2012 (USDA-NRCS 2015). This Inventory only uses NRI data through 2012 because newer data are not available, but will be incorporated when additional years of data are released by USDA- NRCS. The harvested rice areas in each state are presented in Table 5-12. Table 5-12: Rice Area Harvested (1,000 Hectares) State/Crop 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Arkansas 599 796 642 613 613 613 613 California 248 247 249 244 244 244 244 Florida 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 Illinois 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kentucky 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Louisiana 380 402 318 226 226 226 226 Minnesota 4 10 5 6 6 6 6 Mississippi 119 115 53 92 92 92 92 Missouri 47 93 64 46 46 46 46 New York 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 South Carolina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tennessee 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Texas 300 150 120 66 66 66 66 Total 1,698 1,826 1,451 1,292 1,292 1,292 1,292 Notes: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. States are included if NRI reports rice areas at any time between 1990 and 2012. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 The Southeastern states have sufficient growing periods for a ratoon crop in some years. For example, in Arkansas, the length of growing season is occasionally sufficient for ratoon crops on an average of 1 percent of the rice fields. No data are available about ratoon crops in Missouri or Mississippi, and the average amount of ratooning in Arkansas was assigned to these states. Ratoon cropping occurs much more frequently in Louisiana (LSU 2015 for years 2000 through 2013, 2015) and Texas (TAMU 2015 for years 1993 through 2014), averaging 32 percent and 45 percent of rice acres planted, respectively. Florida also has a large fraction of area with a ratoon crop (49 percent). Ratoon rice crops are not grown in California. Ratooned crop area as a percent of primary crop area is presented in Table 5-13. Table 5-13: Average Ratooned Area as Percent of Primary Growth Area (Percent) State 1990-2015 Arkansas a 1% California 0% Florida b 49% Louisiana c 32% Mississippi a 1% Missouri a 0% Texas d 45% a Arkansas: 1990–2000 (Slaton 1999 through 2001); 2001–2011 (Wilson 2002 through 2007, 2009 through 2012); 2012–2013 (Hardke 2013, 2014). b Florida - Ratoon: 1990–2000 (Schueneman 1997, 1999 through 2001); 2001 (Deren 2002); 2002–2003 (Kirstein 2003 through 2004, 2006); 2004 (Cantens 2004 through 2005); 2005–2013 (Gonzalez 2007 through 2014) c Louisiana: 1990–2013 (Linscombe 1999, 2001 through 2014). 5-18 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 d Texas: 1990–2002 (Klosterboer 1997, 1999 through 2003); 2003–2004 (Stansel 2004 through 2005); 2005 (Texas Agricultural Experiment Station 2006); 2006–2013 (Texas Agricultural Experiment Station 2007 through 2014). While rice crop production in the United States includes a minor amount of land with mid-season drainage or alternate wet-dry periods, the majority of rice growers use continuously flooded water management systems (Hardke 2015; UCCE 2015; Hollier 1999; Way et al. 2014). Therefore, continuous flooding was assumed in the DAYCENT simulations and the Tier 1 method. Variation in flooding can be incorporated in future Inventories if water management data are collected. Winter flooding is another key practice associated with water management in rice fields, and the impact of winter flooding on CH 4 emissions is addressed in the Tier 3 and Tier 1 analyses. Flooding is used to prepare fields for the next growing season, and to create waterfowl habitat (Young 2013; Miller et al. 2010; Fleskes et al. 2005). Fitzgerald et al. (2000) suggests that as much as 50 percent of the annual emissions may occur during the winter flood. Winter flooding is a common practice with an average of 34 percent of fields managed with winter flooding in California (Miller et al. 2010; Fleskes et al. 2005), and approximately 21 percent of the fields managed with winter flooding in Arkansas (Wilson and Branson 2005 and 2006; Wilson and Runsick 2007 and 2008; Wilson et al. 2009 and 2010; Hardke and Wilson 2013 and 2014; Hardke 2015). No data are available on winter flooding for Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Missouri, or Mississippi. For these states, the average amount of flooding is assumed to be similar to Arkansas. In addition, the amount of flooding is assumed to be relatively constant over the Inventory time period. Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency Sources of uncertainty in the Tier 3 method include management practices, uncertainties in model structure (i.e., algorithms and parameterization), and variance associated with the NRI sample. Sources of uncertainty in the IPCC (2006) Tier 1 method include the emission factors, management practices, and variance associated with the NRI sample. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to propagate uncertainties in the Tier 1 and 3 methods, and the uncertainties from each approach are combined to produce the final CH 4 emissions estimate using simple error propagation (IPCC 2006). Additional details on the uncertainty methods are provided in Annex 3.12. Rice cultivation CH 4 emissions in 2015 were estimated to be between 8.1 and 14.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. at a 95 percent confidence level, which indicates a range of 28 percent below to 28 percent above the actual 2015 emission estimate of 11.2 MMT CO 2 Eq. (see Table 5-14). Table 5-14: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for CH4 Emissions from Rice Cultivation (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source 2015 Emission Uncertainty Range Relative to Emission Inventory Gas Estimate Estimate Method (MMT CO2 Eq.) (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Rice Cultivation Tier 3 CH4 9.9 6.8 13.1 -32% +32% Rice Cultivation Tier 1 CH4 1.3 0.9 1.9 -30% +46% Rice Cultivation Total CH4 11.2 8.1 14.4 -28% +28% a Range of emission estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section. QA/QC and Verification Quality control measures include checking input data, model scripts, and results to ensure data are properly handled throughout the inventory process. Inventory reporting forms and text are reviewed and revised as needed to correct transcription errors. No errors were found in the reporting forms and text. Model results are compared to field measurements to verify if results adequately represent CH 4 emissions. The comparisons included over 15 long-term experiments, representing about 80 combinations of management Agriculture 5-19

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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