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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 or

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 or “end-use” sectors. For the discussion below, electricity generation emissions have been distributed to each enduse sector on the basis of each sector’s share of aggregate electricity consumption. This method of distributing emissions assumes that each end-use sector consumes electricity that is generated from the national average mix of fuels according to their carbon intensity. Emissions from electricity generation are also addressed separately after the end-use sectors have been discussed. Note that emissions from U.S. Territories are calculated separately due to a lack of specific consumption data for the individual end-use sectors. Figure ES-6, Figure ES-7, and Table ES-3 summarize CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion by end-use sector. Table ES-3: CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion by End-Use Sector (MMT CO2 Eq.) End-Use Sector 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Transportation 1,496.8 1,891.8 1,711.9 1,700.6 1,717.0 1,734.4 1,737.0 Combustion 1,493.8 1,887.0 1,707.6 1,696.8 1,713.0 1,730.4 1,733.2 Electricity 3.0 4.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.7 Industrial 1,529.2 1,564.6 1,399.6 1,375.7 1,407.0 1,409.0 1,378.3 Combustion 842.5 828.0 775.0 782.9 812.2 815.8 828.8 Electricity 686.7 736.6 624.7 592.8 594.7 593.2 549.6 Residential 931.4 1,214.1 1,116.2 1,007.8 1,064.6 1,080.1 1,003.8 Combustion 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5 329.7 345.4 319.6 Electricity 593.0 856.3 790.7 725.3 734.9 734.7 684.3 Commercial 755.4 1,026.8 958.4 897.0 925.5 937.4 888.8 Combustion 217.4 223.5 220.4 196.7 221.0 231.4 225.7 Electricity 538.0 803.3 738.0 700.3 704.5 706.0 663.1 U.S. Territories a 27.9 49.9 41.5 43.6 43.5 41.2 41.2 Total 4,740.7 5,747.1 5,227.7 5,024.7 5,157.6 5,202.1 5,049.2 Electricity Generation 1,820.8 2,400.9 2,157.7 2,022.2 2,038.1 2,038.0 1,900.7 a Fuel consumption by U.S. Territories (i.e., American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Wake Island, and other U.S. Pacific Islands) is included in this report. Notes: Combustion-related emissions from electricity generation are allocated based on aggregate national electricity consumption by each end-use sector. Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Transportation End-Use Sector. When electricity-related emissions are distributed to economic end-use sectors, transportation activities accounted for 34.4 percent of U.S. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2015. The largest sources of transportation CO 2 emissions in 2015 were passenger cars (41.9 percent), medium- and heavyduty trucks (23.6 percent), light-duty trucks, which include sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans (17.5 percent), commercial aircraft (6.9 percent), rail (2.5 percent), other aircraft (2.3 percent), pipelines (2.2 percent), and ships and boats (1.8 percent). Annex 3.2 presents the total emissions from all transportation and mobile sources, including CO 2, CH 4, N 2O, and HFCs. In terms of the overall trend, from 1990 to 2015, total transportation CO 2 emissions rose by 16 percent due, in large part, to increased demand for travel. The number of VMT by light-duty motor vehicles (i.e., passenger cars and light-duty trucks) increased 42 percent from 1990 to 2015, as a result of a confluence of factors including population growth, economic growth, urban sprawl, and low fuel prices during the beginning of this period. Almost all of the energy consumed for transportation was supplied by petroleum-based products, with more than half being related to gasoline consumption in automobiles and other highway vehicles. Other fuel uses, especially diesel fuel for freight trucks and jet fuel for aircraft, accounted for the remainder. Industrial End-Use Sector. Industrial CO 2 emissions, resulting both directly from the combustion of fossil fuels and indirectly from the generation of electricity that is consumed by industry, accounted for 27 percent of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion in 2015. Approximately 60 percent of these emissions resulted from direct fossil fuel combustion to produce steam and/or heat for industrial processes. The remaining emissions resulted from consuming electricity for motors, electric furnaces, ovens, lighting, and other applications. In contrast to the other end-use sectors, emissions from industry have declined since 1990. This decline is due to structural changes in the U.S. Executive Summary ES-11

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 economy (i.e., shifts from a manufacturing-based to a service-based economy), fuel switching, and efficiency improvements. Residential and Commercial End-Use Sectors. The residential and commercial end-use sectors accounted for 20 and 18 percent, respectively, of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 2015. Both sectors relied heavily on electricity for meeting energy demands, with 68 and 75 percent, respectively, of their emissions attributable to electricity consumption for lighting, heating, cooling, and operating appliances. The remaining emissions were due to the consumption of natural gas and petroleum for heating and cooking. Emissions from the residential and commercial end-use sectors have increased by 8 percent and 18 percent since 1990, respectively. Electricity Generation. The United States relies on electricity to meet a significant portion of its energy demands. Electricity generators consumed 34 percent of total U.S. energy uses from fossil fuels and emitted 38 percent of the CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion in 2015. The type of energy source used to generate electricity is the main factor influencing emissions. For example, some electricity is generated through non-fossil fuel options such as nuclear, hydroelectric, or geothermal energy. Including all electricity generation modes, electricity generators relied on coal for approximately 33 percent of their total energy requirements in 2015. 15 In addition, the coal used by electricity generators accounted for 93 percent of all coal consumed for energy in the United States in 2015. 16 Recently, a decrease in the carbon intensity of fuels consumed to generate electricity has occurred due to a decrease in coal consumption, and increased natural gas consumption and other generation sources. Including all electricity generation modes, electricity generators used natural gas for approximately 33 percent of their total energy requirements in 2015. 17 Across the time series, changes in electricity demand and the carbon intensity of fuels used for electricity generation have a significant impact on CO 2 emissions. While emissions from the electric power sector have increased by approximately 4 percent since 1990, the carbon intensity of the electric power sector, in terms of CO 2 Eq. per QBtu has significantly decreased by 16 percent during that same timeframe. Other significant CO 2 trends included the following: Carbon dioxide emissions from non-energy use of fossil fuels increased by 9.4 MMT CO 2 Eq. (8.0 percent) from 1990 through 2015. Emissions from non-energy uses of fossil fuels were 127.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. in 2015, which constituted 2.3 percent of total national CO 2 emissions, approximately the same proportion as in 1990. Carbon dioxide emissions from iron and steel production and metallurgical coke production have decreased by 51.8 MMT CO 2 Eq. (51.9 percent) from 1990 through 2015, due to restructuring of the industry, technological improvements, and increased scrap steel utilization. Carbon dioxide emissions from ammonia production (10.8 MMT CO 2 Eq. in 2015) decreased by 2.2 MMT CO 2 Eq. (17.2 percent) since 1990. Ammonia production relies on natural gas as both a feedstock and a fuel, and as such, market fluctuations and volatility in natural gas prices affect the production of ammonia. Total C sequestration (i.e., net CO 2 removals) in the LULUCF sector decreased by approximately 16.0 percent between 1990 and 2015. This decrease was primarily due to a decrease in the rate of net C accumulation in forest C stocks and an increase in emissions from Land Converted to Grassland. Box ES-2: Use of Ambient Measurements Systems for Validation of Emission Inventories In following the UNFCCC requirement under Article 4.1 to develop and submit national greenhouse gas emission inventories, the emissions and sinks presented in this report are organized by source and sink categories and calculated using internationally-accepted methods provided by the IPCC. 18 Several recent studies have measured emissions at the national or regional level with results that sometimes differ from EPA’s estimate of emissions. EPA has engaged with researchers on how remote sensing, ambient measurement, and inverse modeling techniques for greenhouse gas emissions could assist in improving the understanding of inventory estimates. In working with the 15 See . 16 See Table 6.2 Coal Consumption by Sector of EIA 2016. 17 See . 18 See . 12 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

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  • Page 29 and 30: Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5
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    Wetlands (4.0) (5.3) (4.1) (4.2) (4

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 atmospheric sink fo

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    1 2 Figure 3-6: Annual Deviations f

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    1 Figure 3-9: Electricity Generatio

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    1 Figure 3-11: Industrial Productio

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    1 Figure 3-13: Sales of New Passeng

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    1 2 Figure 3-15: U.S. Energy Consum

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 2 Table 3-17: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    1 2 3 4 percent above the 2014 emis

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 waste

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    1 2 3 4 5 due to the higher CH 4 co

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 approach over the t

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    1 Table 3-72: Woody Biomass Consump

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    SF6 1 1 + + + + + Electrical Transm

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 2 3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (10,828 kt) (see

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 consumed

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    1 Table 4-19: CO2 Emissions from Am

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    1 Table 4-24: Urea Production, Urea

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    2012 10.5 35 2013 10.7 36 2014 10.9

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    2015 4.3 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

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    2013 4.1 0.3 2014 5.0 0.3 1 2 3 4 5

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    1 2 Table 4-70: Production and Cons

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4.23 Substi

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    Graphic Arts + 0 0 0 0 0 0 Non-Indu

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    Note that the relative uncertainty

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Agricultural soil

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 low in many parts

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    Land Converted to Forest Land (92.0

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    1 2 Table 6-7: Land Use and Land-Us

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    1 2 Harvested wood products (HWP)

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    Note: Forest C stocks do not includ

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    1 2 3 Total Aboveground Biomass Flu

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 C) from drainage and cu

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    Belowground Live Biomass 2.3 2.0 2.

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    1 2 Table 6-34: Net CO2 Flux from S

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    1 2 3 4 5 above the 2015 stock chan

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    On-site 70 71 60 53 50 50 49 N2O (O

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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