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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 relative to 1997 is assumed to reduce the amended area. Data on the county-level N available for application is estimated for managed systems based on the total amount of N excreted in manure minus N losses during storage and transport, and including the addition of N from bedding materials. Nitrogen losses include direct N 2O emissions, volatilization of ammonia and NO x, runoff and leaching, and poultry manure used as a feed supplement. For unmanaged systems, it is assumed that no N losses or additions occur prior to the application of manure to the soil. More information on livestock manure production is available in Section 5.2: Manure Management and Annex 3.11. The IPCC approach considers crop residue N and N mineralized from soil organic matter as activity data. However, they are not treated as activity data in DAYCENT simulations because residue production, symbiotic N fixation (e.g., legumes), mineralization of N from soil organic matter, and asymbiotic N fixation are internally generated by the model as part of the simulation. In other words, DAYCENT accounts for the influence of symbiotic N fixation, mineralization of N from soil organic matter and crop residue retained in the field, and asymbiotic N fixation on N 2O emissions, but these are not model inputs. The N 2O emissions from crop residues are reduced by approximately 3 percent (the assumed average burned portion for crop residues in the U.S.) to avoid double-counting associated with non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural residue burning. The estimate of residue burning is based on state inventory data (ILENR 1993; Oregon Department of Energy 1995; Noller 1996; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources 1993; Cibrowski 1996). Additional sources of data are used to supplement the mineral N (USDA-ERS 1997, 2011), livestock manure (Edmonds et al. 2003), and land-use information (USDA-NRCS 2015). The Conservation Technology Information Center (CTIC 2004) provides annual data on tillage activity with adjustments for long-term adoption of no-till agriculture (Towery 2001). Tillage has an influence on soil organic matter decomposition and subsequent soil N 2O emissions. The time series of tillage data from CTIC began in 1989 and ended in 2004, so further changes in tillage practices since 2004 are not currently captured in the Inventory and practices used in 2004 are assumed to apply for subsequent years. Daily weather data are used as an input in the model simulations, based on gridded weather data at a 32 km scale from the North America Regional Reanalysis Product (NARR) (Mesinger et al. 2006). Soil attributes are obtained from the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) (Soil Survey Staff 2011). Each NRI point is run 100 times as part of the uncertainty assessment, yielding a total of over 18 million simulations for the analysis. Soil N 2O emission estimates from DAYCENT are adjusted using a structural uncertainty estimator to account for uncertainty in model algorithms and parameter values (Del Grosso et al. 2010). Soil N 2O emissions and associated 95 percent confidence intervals are estimated for each year between 1990 and 2012, but emissions from 2013 to 2015 are assumed to be similar to 2012. Annual data are currently available through 2012 (USDA- NRCS 2015), and the Inventory time series will be updated in the future as new NRI data are released. Nitrous oxide emissions from managed agricultural lands are the result of interactions among anthropogenic activities (e.g., N fertilization, manure application, tillage) and other driving variables, such as weather and soil characteristics. These factors influence key processes associated with N dynamics in the soil profile, including immobilization of N by soil microbial organisms, decomposition of organic matter, plant uptake, leaching, runoff, and volatilization, as well as the processes leading to N 2O production (nitrification and denitrification). It is not possible to partition N 2O emissions into each anthropogenic activity directly from model outputs due to the complexity of the interactions (e.g., N 2O emissions from synthetic fertilizer applications cannot be distinguished from those resulting from manure applications). To approximate emissions by activity, the amount of mineral N added to the soil, or made available through decomposition of soil organic matter and plant litter, as well as asymbiotic fixation of N from the atmosphere, is determined for each N source and then divided by the total amount of mineral N in the soil according to the DAYCENT model simulation. The percentages are then multiplied by the total of direct N 2O emissions in order to approximate the portion attributed to N management practices. This approach is only an approximation because it assumes that all N made available in soil has an equal probability of being released as N 2O, regardless of its source, which is unlikely to be the case (Delgado et al. 2009). However, this approach allows for further disaggregation of emissions by source of N, which is valuable for reporting purposes and is analogous to the reporting associated with the IPCC (2006) Tier 1 method, in that it associates portions of the total soil N 2O emissions with individual sources of N. Tier 1 Approach for Mineral Cropland Soils The IPCC (2006) Tier 1 methodology is used to estimate direct N 2O emissions for mineral cropland soils that are not simulated by DAYCENT (e.g., DAYCENT has not been parametrized to simulate all crop types and some soil types such as Histosols). For the Tier 1 Approach, estimates of direct N 2O emissions from N applications are based on 5-28 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 mineral soil N that is made available from the following practices: (1) the application of synthetic commercial fertilizers; (2) application of managed manure and non-manure commercial organic fertilizers; and (3) decomposition and mineralization of nitrogen from above- and below-ground crop residues in agricultural fields (i.e., crop biomass that is not harvested). Non-manure commercial organic amendments are only included in the Tier 1 analysis because these data are not available at the county-level, which is necessary for the DAYCENT simulations. 15 Consequently, all commercial organic fertilizer, as well as manure that is not added to crops in the DAYCENT simulations, are included in the Tier 1 analysis. The following sources are used to derive activity data: A process-of-elimination approach is used to estimate synthetic N fertilizer additions for crop areas not simulated by DAYCENT. The total amount of fertilizer used on farms has been estimated at the county- level by the USGS from sales records (Ruddy et al. 2006), and these data are aggregated to obtain state-level N additions to farms. For 2002 through 2015, state-level fertilizer for on-farm use is adjusted based on annual fluctuations in total U.S. fertilizer sales (AAPFCO 1995 through 2007; AAPFCO 2008 through 2016). 16 After subtracting the portion of fertilizer applied to crops and grasslands simulated by DAYCENT (see Tier 3 Approach for Mineral Cropland Soils and Direct N 2O Emissions from Grassland Soils Sections for information on data sources), the remainder of the total fertilizer used on farms is assumed to be applied to crops that are not simulated by DAYCENT. Similarly, a process-of-elimination approach is used to estimate manure N additions for crops that are not simulated by DAYCENT. The amount of manure N applied in the Tier 3 approach to crops and grasslands is subtracted from total manure N available for land application (see Tier 3 Approach for Mineral Cropland Soils and Direct N 2O Emissions from Grassland Soils Sections for information on data sources), and this difference is assumed to be applied to crops that are not simulated by DAYCENT. Commercial organic fertilizer additions are based on organic fertilizer consumption statistics, which are converted to units of N using average organic fertilizer N content (TVA 1991 through 1994, AAPFCO 1995 through 2016). Commercial fertilizers do include some manure and sewage sludge, but the amounts are removed from the commercial fertilizer data to avoid double counting with the manure N dataset described above and the sewage sludge amendment data discussed later in this section. Crop residue N is derived by combining amounts of above- and below-ground biomass, which are determined based on NRI crop area data (USDA-NRCS 2013), crop production yield statistics (USDA-NASS 2015), dry matter fractions (IPCC 2006), linear equations to estimate above-ground biomass given dry matter crop yields from harvest (IPCC 2006), ratios of below-to-above-ground biomass (IPCC 2006), and N contents of the residues (IPCC 2006). N inputs from residue were reduced by 3 percent to account for average residue burning portions in the United States. The total increase in soil mineral N from applied fertilizers and crop residues is multiplied by the IPCC (2006) default emission factor to derive an estimate of direct N 2O emissions using the Tier 1 Approach. Drainage of Organic Soils in Croplands and Grasslands The IPCC (2006) Tier 1 methods are used to estimate direct N 2O emissions due to drainage of organic soils in croplands or grasslands at a state scale. State-scale estimates of the total area of drained organic soils are obtained from the 2012 NRI (USDA-NRCS 2015) using soils data from the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) (Soil Survey Staff 2011). Temperature data from Daly et al. (1994 and 1998) are used to subdivide areas into temperate and tropical climates using the climate classification from IPCC (2006). Annual data are available between 1990 and 2012. Emissions are assumed to be similar to 2012 from 2013 to 2015 because no additional activity data are currently available from the NRI for the latter years. To estimate annual emissions, the total temperate area is multiplied by the IPCC default emission factor for temperate regions, and the total tropical area is multiplied by the IPCC default emission factor for tropical regions (IPCC 2006). Direct N2O Emissions from Grassland Soils 15 Commercial organic fertilizers include dried blood, tankage, compost, and other, but the dried manure and sewage sludge is removed from the dataset in order to avoid double counting with other datasets that are used for manure N and sewage sludge. 16 Values are not available for 2014 through 2015 so a “least squares line” statistical extrapolation using the previous 5 years of data is used to arrive at an approximate value for 2014 through 2015. Agriculture 5-29

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    1 3.10. Methodology for Estimating

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Electrical Transmission and Distrib

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    1 2 Figure 3-6: Annual Deviations f

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    1 Figure 3-9: Electricity Generatio

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    1 Figure 3-11: Industrial Productio

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    1 Figure 3-13: Sales of New Passeng

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 2 Table 3-17: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    1 Table 3-72: Woody Biomass Consump

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 2 3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (10,828 kt) (see

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    2012 10.5 35 2013 10.7 36 2014 10.9

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    2015 4.3 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

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    2013 4.1 0.3 2014 5.0 0.3 1 2 3 4 5

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    1 2 Table 4-70: Production and Cons

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    1 2 3 Total Aboveground Biomass Flu

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    Belowground Live Biomass 2.3 2.0 2.

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    1 2 Table 6-34: Net CO2 Flux from S

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    1 2 3 4 5 above the 2015 stock chan

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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    1 2 3 4 result in cessation of emis

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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