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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 observations recorded in the FIA national database (U.S. Forest Service 2016a, b, c). Model predictions prior to the annual inventory period are constructed from the estimation system using the annual estimates. The estimation system is driven by the annual forest inventory system conducted by the FIA program (Frayer and Furnival 1999; Bechtold and Patterson 2005; USDA Forest Service 2016d, 2016a). The FIA program relies on a rotating panel statistical design with a sampling intensity of one 674.5 m 2 ground plot per 2,403 ha of land and water area. A fivepanel design, with 20 percent of the field plots typically measured each year within a state, is used in the eastern United States and a ten-panel design, with 10 percent of the field plots measured each year within a state, is used in the western United States. The interpenetrating hexagonal design across the U.S. landscape enables the sampling of plots at various intensities in a spatially and temporally unbiased manner. Typically, tree and site attributes are measured with higher sample intensity while other ecosystem attributes such as downed dead wood are sampled during summer months at lower intensities. The first step in incorporating FIA data into the estimation system is to identify annual inventory datasets by state. Inventories include data collected on permanent inventory plots on forest lands and were organized as separate datasets, each representing a complete inventory, or survey, of an individual state at a specified time. Many of the annual inventories reported for states are represented as “moving window” averages, which mean that a portion—but not all—of the previous year’s inventory is updated each year (USDA Forest Service 2016d). Forest C estimates are organized according to these state surveys, and the frequency of surveys varies by state. Using this FIA data, separate estimates were prepared for the five C storage pools identified by IPCC (2006) and described above. All estimates were based on data collected from the extensive array of permanent, annual forest inventory plots and associated models (e.g., live tree belowground biomass) in the U.S. (USDA Forest Service 2016b, 2016c). Carbon conversion factors were applied at the disaggregated level of each inventory plot and then appropriately expanded to population estimates. Carbon in Biomass Live tree C pools include aboveground and belowground (coarse root) biomass of live trees with diameter at breast height (dbh) of at least 2.54 cm at 1.37 m above the litter. Separate estimates were made for above- and belowground biomass components. If inventory plots included data on individual trees, aboveground and belowground (coarse roots) tree C was based on Woodall et al. (2011a), which is also known as the component ratio method (CRM), and is a function of tree volume, species, and diameter. An additional component of foliage, which was not explicitly included in Woodall et al. (2011a), was added to each tree following the same CRM method. Understory vegetation is a minor component of biomass, which is defined in the FIA program as all biomass of undergrowth plants in a forest, including woody shrubs and trees less than 2.54 cm dbh. For this Inventory, it was assumed that 10 percent of total understory C mass is belowground (Smith et al. 2006). Estimates of C density were based on information in Birdsey (1996) and biomass estimates from Jenkins et al. (2003). Understory biomass represented over one percent of C in biomass, but its contribution rarely exceeded 2 percent of the total carbon stocks or stock changes across all forest ecosystem C pools each year. Carbon in Dead Organic Matter Dead organic matter was initially calculated as three separate pools—standing dead trees, downed dead wood, and litter—with C stocks estimated from sample data or from models as described below. The standing dead tree C pool includes aboveground and belowground (coarse root) biomass for trees of at least 12.7 cm dbh. Calculations followed the basic method applied to live trees (Woodall et al. 2011a) with additional modifications to account for decay and structural loss (Domke et al. 2011; Harmon et al. 2011). Downed dead wood estimates are based on measurement of a subset of FIA plots for downed dead wood (Domke et al. 2013; Woodall and Monleon 2008; Woodall et al. 2013). Downed dead wood is defined as pieces of dead wood greater than 7.5 cm diameter, at transect intersection, that are not attached to live or standing dead trees. This includes stumps and roots of harvested trees. To facilitate the downscaling of downed dead wood C estimates from the state-wide population estimates to individual plots, downed dead wood models specific to regions and forest types within each region are used. Litter C is the pool of organic C (also known as duff, humus, and fine woody debris) above the mineral soil and includes woody fragments with diameters of up to 7.5 cm. A subset of FIA plots are measured for litter C. A modeling approach, using litter C measurements from FIA plots (Domke et al. 2016) was used to estimate litter C for every FIA plot used in the estimation framework. 6-28 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Carbon in Forest Soil Soil carbon is the largest terrestrial C sink with much of that C in forest ecosystems. The FIA program has been consistently measuring soil attributes as part of the annual inventory since 2001 and has amassed an extensive inventory of soil measurement data on forest land in the conterminous U.S. and coastal Alaska (O’Neill et al. 2005). Observations of mineral and organic soil C on forest land from the FIA program and the International Soil Carbon Monitoring Network were used to develop and implement a modeling approach that enabled the prediction of mineral and organic soil C to a depth of 100 cm from empirical measurements to a depth of 20 cm and included site- , stand-, and climate-specific variables that yield predictions of soil C stocks specific to forest land in the United States (Domke et al. In press). This new approach allowed for separation of mineral and organic soils also referred to as Histosols for the first time in the Forest Land Remaining Forest Land category. Note that mineral and organic soil C is reported to a depth of 100 cm for Forest Land Remaining Forest Land to remain consistent with past reporting in this category, however for consistency across land-use categories mineral soil C is reported to a depth of 30 cm in Section 6.3 Land Converted to Forest Land. Estimates of C from organic soils in this section (Table 6-10, Table 6-11, and Table 6-12) do not include emissions from drained organic soils. Estimates of emissions from drainage of organic soils from Forest Land Remaining Forest Land and Land Converted to Forest Land can be found in the Drained Organic Soils section below (Table 6-21 and Table 6-22). Harvested Wood Carbon Estimates of the HWP contribution to forest C sinks and emissions (hereafter called “HWP contribution”) were based on methods described in Skog (2008) using the WOODCARB II model. These methods are based on IPCC (2006) guidance for estimating the HWP contribution. IPCC (2006) provides methods that allow for reporting of HWP contribution using one of several different methodological approaches: Production, stock change and atmospheric flow, as well as a default method that assumes there is no change in HWP C stocks (see Annex 3.13 for more details about each approach). The U.S. uses the production approach to report HWP contribution. Under the production approach, C in exported wood was estimated as if it remains in the U.S., and C in imported wood was not included in the estimates. Though reported U.S. HWP estimates are based on the production approach, estimates resulting from use of the two alternative approaches, the stock change and atmospheric flow approaches, are also presented for comparison (see Annex 3.13). Annual estimates of change were calculated by tracking the annual estimated additions to and removals from the pool of products held in end uses (i.e., products in use such as housing or publications) and the pool of products held in SWDS. Emissions from HWP associated with wood biomass energy are not included in this section of the Inventory—a net of zero sequestration and emissions as they are a part of the Energy sector reporting (see Chapter 3). Solidwood products include lumber and panels. End-use categories for solidwood include single and multifamily housing, alteration and repair of housing, and other end-uses. There is one product category and one end-use category for paper. Additions to and removals from pools were tracked beginning in 1900, with the exception that additions of softwood lumber to housing, which began in 1800. Solidwood and paper product production and trade data were taken from USDA Forest Service and other sources (Hair and Ulrich 1963; Hair 1958; USDC Bureau of Census 1976; Ulrich 1985, 1989; Steer 1948; AF&PA 2006a, 2006b; Howard 2003, 2007, 2016, In preparation). Estimates for disposal of products reflected the change over time in the fraction of products discarded to SWDS (as opposed to burning or recycling) and the fraction of SWDS that were in sanitary landfills versus dumps. There are five annual HWP variables that were used in varying combinations to estimate HWP contribution using any one of the three main approaches listed above. These are: (1A) annual change of C in wood and paper products in use in the U.S., (1B) annual change of C in wood and paper products in SWDS in the U.S., (2A) annual change of C in wood and paper products in use in the U.S. and other countries where the wood came from trees harvested in the U.S., (2B) annual change of C in wood and paper products in SWDS in the U.S. and other countries where the wood came from trees harvested in the U.S., (3) C in imports of wood, pulp, and paper to the U.S., (4) C in exports of wood, pulp and paper from the U.S., and Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-29

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    1 Figure 3-9: Electricity Generatio

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    1 Figure 3-11: Industrial Productio

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    1 Figure 3-13: Sales of New Passeng

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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