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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 2014) Inventory eliminated the use of periodic data (which may be inconsistent with annual inventory data) and contributed to a data artifact in prior estimates of emissions/removals from 1990 to the present. In the previous Inventory reports (i.e., prior to the 1990 to 2014 Inventory), there was a reduction in net sequestration from 1995 to 2000 followed by an increase in net sequestration from 2000 to 2004. This artifact, resulting from comparing inconsistent inventories of the 1980s through 1990s to the nationally consistent inventories of the 2000s has been removed in the last two Inventory reports. Emissions from drained organic soil within Forest Land Remaining Forest Land and Land Converted to Forest Land are reported for the first time in this Inventory. These estimates of drained organic soils on forest land are identified separately from other forest soils largely because mineralization of the exposed or partially dried organic material results in continuous CO 2 emissions (IPCC 2006). This distinction merits the separate estimates provided here according to IPCC (2006) and primarily the 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands (IPCC 2013). Estimated annual net additions to HWP C stocks increased slightly between 2014 and 2015 but decreased overall dating back to 2008 due to revised data for the solidwood products in use category. The decline in net additions to HWP C stocks continued through 2009 from the recent high point in 2006. This is due to sharp declines in U.S. production of solidwood and paper products in 2007 and 2008 primarily due to the decline in housing construction. The low level of gross additions to solidwood and paper products in use in 2009 and 2010 were exceeded by discards from uses. The result is a net reduction in the amount of HWP C that is held in products in use during this time period and ultimately this category became a net source. Since the recent recession in 2009 the products in use have not recovered while additions to the SWDS have remained relatively stable. Planned Improvements Reliable estimates of forest C stocks and changes across the diverse ecosystems of the U.S. require a high level of investment in both annual monitoring and associated analytical techniques. Development of improved monitoring/reporting techniques is a continuous process that occurs simultaneously with annual Inventory submissions. Planned improvements can be broadly assigned to the following categories: development of a robust estimation and reporting system, individual C pool estimation, coordination with other land-use categories, and annual inventory data incorporation. As this is only the second Inventory submission to delineate C change by Forest Land Remaining Forest Land and Land Converted to Forest Land, there are many improvements that are still necessary. Since the estimation approach used this year operates at the regional scale for the U.S., research is underway to leverage auxiliary information (i.e., remotely sensed information) to operate at finer spatial scales. As in past submissions, deforestation is implicitly included in the report given the design of the annual forest inventory system, but not explicitly estimated. The transparency and repeatability of estimation and reporting systems will be improved through the dissemination of open source code (e.g., R programming language) in concert with the public availability of the annual forest inventory data (USDA Forest Service 2016b). Also, several FIA database processes are being institutionalized to increase efficiency and QA/QC in reporting and further improve transparency, completeness, consistency, accuracy, and availability of data used in reporting. Finally, a Tier 1 approach was used to estimate uncertainty associated with C stock changes in the Forest Land Remaining Forest Land category in this report. There is research underway investigating more robust approaches to total uncertainty (Clough et al. 2016) which will be considered in future Inventory reports. The modeling framework used to estimate downed dead wood within the dead wood C pool will be updated similar to the litter (Domke et al. 2016) and soil C pools (Domke et al. In press). Finally, components of other pools, such as C in belowground biomass (Russell et al. 2015) and understory vegetation (Russell et al. 2014; Johnson et al. In review), are being explored but may require additional investment in field inventories before improvements can be realized with Inventory submissions. The foundation of forest C estimation and reporting is the annual forest inventory system. The ongoing annual surveys by the FIA program are expected to improve the accuracy and precision of forest C estimates as new state surveys become available (USDA Forest Service 2016b), particularly in western states. Hawaii and U.S. Territories will be included when appropriate forest C data are available (as of April 30, 2016, only a small number of plots from Hawaii were available from the annualized sampling design). Forest lands in interior Alaska are now included in the annual forest inventory, however alternative methods of estimating C stock change will need to be explored as 6-32 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 it will take several years to re-measure newly established plots. To that end, research is underway to incorporate all FIA plot information (both annual and periodic data) and the dense time-series of remotely sensed data in a designbased, model-assisted format for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and removals as well as change detection and attribution across the entire reporting period and all managed forest land in the U.S. Leveraging this auxiliary information will aid not only the interior Alaska effort but the entire inventory system. In addition to fully inventorying all managed forest land in the U.S., the more intensive sampling of fine woody debris, litter, and SOC on a subset of FIA plots continues and will substantially improve resolution of C pools (i.e., greater sample intensity; Westfall et al. 2013) as this information becomes available (Woodall et al. 2011b). Increased sample intensity of some C pools and using annualized sampling data as it becomes available for those states currently not reporting are planned for future submissions. The FIA sampling frame extends beyond the forest land use category (e.g., woodlands and urban areas) with inventory-relevant information for these lands which will likely become increasingly available in coming years. Box 6-4: Preliminary Estimates of Historical Carbon Stock Change and Methane Emissions from Managed Land in Alaska (Represents Mean for Years 2000 to 2009) Starting in the 1990s, a forest inventory of south central and southeastern coastal (SCSE) Alaska was initiated following the same approach applied in the conterminous U.S. These data have been used to compile Forest Land estimates for SCSE Alaska in the U.S. Inventory since 2008. However, there still remain vast expanses of Alaska that are in the U.S. managed land base (See Section 0) where forest inventories have only recently been established and thus are not included as part of the greenhouse gas flux reporting in this Inventory. In addition, this Inventory does not report on Grasslands in Alaska due to lack of land use and management data. Recognizing the need to report on these emissions and removals, efforts have been initiated to apply a combination of approaches that will eventually lead to complete reporting for all managed land in Alaska. The most promising near-term option for Forest Lands that would meet the minimum UNFCCC reporting requirements is application of the IPCC Tier 1 Gain-Loss Method. Work is also underway to utilize forest inventory plots in combination with remote sensing to estimate C stock changes. This work was initiated as a pilot study and has now moved fully operational with the annual forest inventory in interior Alaska underway. Full implementation of either of these approaches for reporting in the Inventory is several years in the future. In order to provide some insight into the greenhouse gas flux in Alaska, preliminary C stock change and CH 4 emissions for Alaska have been developed using data from a recently completed USGS effort overlaid on the Alaskan managed land base to provide a preliminary assessment of the mean historical anthropogenic greenhouse gas flux between 2000 and 2009. The assessment by the USGS, in collaboration with USDA Forest Service and the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, estimated Alaska C stock changes and CH 4 emissions using an approach that couples modeling, remote sensing analysis, literature and database review (Zhu and McGuire, eds, 2016). Annual variation of soil and vegetation C stocks and associated CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes, in both upland and wetland ecosystems in Alaska, were analyzed from 1950 to 2009, using this USGS modeling framework. Results of the assessment include C stocks and fluxes from vegetation and soil organic C pools, and CH 4 fluxes. Vegetation C pools included aboveground and belowground biomass. The soil C pool included dead woody debris and C stored in organic and mineral horizons. Carbon dioxide fluxes from vegetation net primary productivity, soil heterotrophic respiration, wildfire emissions and harvest were estimated. Methane fluxes included biogenic and pyrogenic sources. The results of this USGS analysis (i.e., mean values for 2000 to 2009-time period) overlaid on the Alaskan managed land base are presented in Table 6-15. Table 6-15: Mean C Stocks, CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in Alaska between 2000 and 2009 Land Use: C Pool Area (1,000 ha) a C stock (MMT C) CO2 Flux (Change in C stocks) (MMT CO2) Eq./Year) b CH4 Flux (MMT CO2 Eq./Year) Forest Land 39,917 15,226 44.86 1.675 Aboveground Biomass - 2,130 4.03 - Belowground Biomass - 532 - Soil c - 12,563 40.83 Grassland d 34,844 18,856 (30.60) 0.102 Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-33

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Electrical Transmission and Distrib

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    1 Figure 3-9: Electricity Generatio

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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