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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 with 50,000 iterations. Emissions are based on the annual data for drained organic soils from 1990 to 2012 for Cropland Remaining Cropland areas in the 2012 NRI (USDA-NRCS 2015). The annual emission rates estimated for 2012 are applied to 2013 through 2015, but the areas may be adjusted through the process of reconciling NRI and NLCD with the FIA data. (See section on the Tier 3 Approach for more information.) Future Inventories will be updated with new NRI activity data for 2012 through 2015 when the data are made available, and the time series will be recalculated (see Planned Improvements section). Uncertainty and Time-Series Consistency Uncertainty associated with the Cropland Remaining Cropland land-use category is addressed for changes in agricultural soil C stocks (including both mineral and organic soils). Uncertainty estimates are presented in Table 6-30 for each subsource (mineral soil C stocks and organic soil C stocks) and the methods that are used in the Inventory analyses (i.e., Tier 2 and Tier 3). Uncertainty for the Tier 2 and 3 approaches is derived using a Monte Carlo approach (see Annex 3.12 for further discussion), but the C stock changes from the individual Tier 2 and 3 approaches are combined using the simple error propagation method provided by the IPCC (2006). The combined uncertainty is calculated by taking the square root of the sum of the squares of the standard deviations of the uncertain quantities. The combined uncertainty for soil C stocks in Cropland Remaining Cropland ranged from 230 percent below to 237 percent above the 2015 stock change estimate of -14.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. 40 Table 6-30: Approach 2 Quantitative Uncertainty Estimates for Soil C Stock Changes occurring within Cropland Remaining Cropland (MMT CO2 Eq. and Percent) Source 2015 Flux Estimate a (MMT CO2 Eq.) Uncertainty Range Relative to Flux Estimate a,b (MMT CO2 Eq.) (%) Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Mineral Soil C Stocks: Cropland Remaining Cropland, Tier 3 Inventory Methodology (42.7) (73.5) (11.9) -72% 72% Mineral Soil C Stocks: Cropland Remaining Cropland, Tier 2 Inventory Methodology (2.7) (4.2) (1.4) -55% 48% Mineral Soil C Stocks: Cropland Remaining Cropland (Change in CRP enrollment relative 3.3 1.6 4.9 -50% 50% to 2003) Organic Soil C Stocks: Cropland Remaining Cropland, Tier 2 Inventory Methodology 28.0 18.4 40.4 -34% 44% Combined Uncertainty for Flux associated with Agricultural Soil Carbon Stock (14.0) (46.4) 19.2 -230% 237% Change in Cropland Remaining Cropland a Quality control uncovered errors in the estimate and uncertainty for 2015, which will be updated following public review. The corrected Tier 3 mineral soil C stock change is (46.6) MMT CO2 Eq., with an uncertainty ranging from -78 percent to +78 percent. The corrected combined flux estimate for 2015 is (18.0) MMT CO2 Eq., with an uncertainty ranging from -210 percent to 214 percent. b Range of C stock change estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. Notes: Parentheses indicate net sequestration. 19 20 21 22 23 24 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Uncertainty is also associated with lack of reporting of agricultural woody biomass and dead organic matter C stock changes. The IPCC (2006) does not recommend reporting of annual crop biomass in Cropland Remaining Cropland because all of the biomass senesces each year and so there is no long term storage of C in this pool. For woody 40 Quality control uncovered errors in the estimate and uncertainty for 2015, which will be updated following public review. Based on the revision, soil C stocks increased by 18.0 MMT CO2 Eq. in 2015, with an uncertainty ranging from -210 percent below to 214 percent above the estimate. 6-54 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 plants, biomass C stock changes are likely minor in perennial crops, such as orchards and nut plantations. There will be some removal and replanting of tree crops each year, but the net effect on biomass C stock changes is probably minor because the overall area is relatively constant across time series. In contrast, agroforestry practices, such as shelterbelts, riparian forests and intercropping with trees, may be significantly changing biomass C stocks over the Inventory times series, at least in some regions of the United States, but there are currently no datasets to evaluate the trends. Changes in litter C stocks are also assumed to be negligible in croplands over annual time frames, although there are certainly significant changes at sub-annual time scales across seasons. However, this trend may change in the future, particularly if crop residue becomes a viable feedstock for bioenergy production. QA/QC and Verification Quality control measures included checking input data, model scripts, and results to ensure data are properly handled throughout the inventory process. Inventory reporting forms and text are reviewed and revised as needed to correct transcription errors. Results from the DAYCENT model are compared to field measurements, and a statistical relationship has been developed to assess uncertainties in the predictive capability of the model. The comparisons include 92 long-term experiments, representing about 908 combinations of management treatments across all of the sites (see Ogle et al. 2007 and Annex 3.12 for more information). Recalculations Discussion Methodological recalculations in the current Inventory are associated with the following improvements: (1) driving the DAYCENT simulations with updated input data for land management from the National Resources Inventory from 1979 through 2012; (2) increasing the number of experimental study sites used to quantify model uncertainty; (3) DAYCENT model development to improve the simulation of soil temperature; and (4) improvements in the cropping and land use histories that are simulated in DAYCENT between 1950 and 1979 to reduce the amount of grassland converted into cropland when the NRI histories begin in 1979 (Note the histories generate initial values for the model state variables, including the initial soil organic C stock values; more detail is provide in Annex 3.12). As a result of these improvements, SOC stocks increased by an average of 7.5 MMT CO 2 Eq. across the time series, which is an 18 percent increase in the reported soil C stock changes compared to the previous Inventory. 41 The largest driver of this change is associated with corrective actions taken to more accurately represent the land use histories prior to 1979. Planned Improvements There are several planned improvements underway. The DAYCENT model will be refined to simulate soil organic C stock changes to a depth of at least 30 cm. Improvements are also underway to more accurately simulate plant production. Crop parameters associated with temperature effects on plant production will be further improved in DAYCENT with additional model calibration. Senescence events following grain filling in crops, such as wheat, are being modified based on recent model algorithm development, and will be incorporated. Experimental study sites will continue to be added for quantifying model structural uncertainty. There is an effort underway to update the time series of management data with information from the USDA-NRCS Conservation Effects Assessment Program (CEAP). This improvement will fill several gaps in the management data including more specific data on fertilizer rates, updated tillage practices, and more information on planting and harvesting dates for crops. Improvements are underway to simulate crop residue burning in the DAYCENT model based on the amount of crop residues burned according to the data that is used in the Field Burning of Agricultural Residues source category (see Section 5.7). This improvement will more accurately represent the C inputs to the soil that are associated with residue burning. 41 Quality control uncovered errors in the estimate and uncertainty for 2013, 2014, 2015, which will be updated following public review. These corrections impact the comparison between the prior and current Inventories in the Recalculation Discussion, which will also be updated after public review. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-55

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    New Mexico 70,608 52,250 12.0 0.263

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Table 7-6 pres

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 %Plants a %Plants

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    1 2 Table 7-16: Approach 2 Quantita

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EF i = emissio

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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