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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 The inventory will include an analysis of C stock changes in Alaska for cropland and managed grassland, using the Tier 2 method for mineral and organic soils that is described earlier in this section. This analysis will initially focus on land use change, which typically has a larger impact on soil C stock changes, but will be further refined over time to incorporate more of the management data. All of these improvements are expected to be completed for the 1990 through 2017 Inventory (2019 submission to the UNFCCC). However, the time line may be extended if there are insufficient resources to fund all or part of these planned improvements. 6.5 Land Converted to Cropland (IPCC Source Category 4B2) Land Converted to Cropland includes all cropland in an Inventory year that had been in another land use(s) during the previous 20 years (USDA-NRCS 2015), and used to produce food or fiber, or forage that is harvested and used as feed (e.g., hay and silage). For example, grassland or forestland converted to cropland during the past 20 years would be reported in this category. Recently converted lands are retained in this category for 20 years as recommended by IPCC (2006). This Inventory includes all croplands in the conterminous United States and Hawaii, but does not include a minor amount of Land Converted to Cropland in Alaska. Some miscellaneous croplands are also not included in the Inventory due to limited understanding of greenhouse gas dynamics in management systems (e.g., aquaculture) or climate zones (e.g., boreal climates). Consequently, there is a discrepancy between the total amount of managed area in Land Converted to Cropland (see Section 6.1 Representation of the U.S. Land Base) and the cropland area included in the Inventory. Improvements are underway to include croplands in Alaska and miscellaneous crops in future C inventories. Land use change can lead to large losses of C to the atmosphere, particularly conversions from forest land (Houghton et al. 1983). Moreover, conversion of forest to another land use (i.e., deforestation) is one of the largest anthropogenic sources of emissions to the atmosphere globally (Schimel 1995), although this source may be declining according to a recent assessment (Tubiello et al. 2015). The 2006 IPCC Guidelines recommend reporting changes in biomass, dead organic matter and soil organic carbon (SOC) 42 stocks with land use change. All SOC stock changes are estimated and reported for Land Converted to Cropland, but for belowground biomass, dead wood and litter pools reporting is limited to Forest Land Converted to Cropland. 43 Loss of aboveground woody biomass C from Forest Land Converted to Cropland is the largest contributor to C loss throughout the time series, accounting for approximately 66 percent of the total emissions (Table 6-31 and Table 6-32). Grassland Converted to Cropland is the largest source of emissions associated with soil C pools across the time-series (accounting for approximately 93 percent of the average loss of soil C) because the area of Grassland Converted to Cropland is significantly higher than for other land use conversions to cropland. The net change in total C stocks for 2015 led to CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere of 28.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. (7.8 MMT C), including 10.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (2.8 MMT C) from aboveground biomass C losses, 2.3 MMT CO 2 Eq. (0.6 MMT C) from belowground biomass C losses, 1.8 MMT CO 2 Eq. (0.5 MMT C) from dead wood C losses, 1.7 MMT CO 2 Eq. (0.5 MMT C) from litter C losses, 8.9 MMT CO 2 Eq. (2.4 MMT C) from mineral soils and 3.7 MMT CO 2 Eq. (1.0 MMT 42 Carbon dioxide emissions associated with liming and urea application are also estimated but are included in the Agriculture chapter of the report.. 43 Changes in biomass C stocks are not currently reported for other land use conversions (other than forest land) to cropland, but this is a planned improvement for a future inventory. Note: changes in dead organic matter are assumed to negligible for other land use conversions (i.e., other than forest land) to cropland based on the Tier 1 method in IPCC (2006). 6-56 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 C) from drainage and cultivation of organic soils. 44 Emissions in 2015 are 72 percent lower than the emissions in the initial reporting year of 1990, largely due to a reduction in the area of Forest Land Converted to Cropland. Table 6-31: Net CO2 Flux from Soil C Stock Changes in Land Converted to Cropland by Land Use Change Category (MMT CO2 Eq.) 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 a 2015 a Grassland Converted to Cropland Mineral Soils 21.9 13.9 16.0 15.1 8.4 8.4 8.4 Organic Soils 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Forest Land Converted to Cropland Aboveground Live Biomass 46.7 15.3 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 Belowground Live Biomass 10.5 3.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Dead Wood 9.1 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Litter 8.6 2.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Mineral Soils 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Organic Soils 0.1 + + + + + + Other Lands Converted to Cropland Mineral Soils 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Organic Soils 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Settlements Converted to Cropland Mineral Soils 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Organic Soils + + 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Wetlands Converted to Cropland Mineral Soils 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Organic Soils 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Aboveground Live Biomass 46.7 15.3 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 Belowground Live Biomass 10.5 3.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Dead Wood 9.1 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Litter 8.6 2.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Total Mineral Soil Flux 22.5 14.4 16.5 15.6 8.9 8.9 8.9 Total Organic Soil Flux 3.4 4.2 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Total Net Flux 100.7 42.6 35.3 35.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq. a Quality control uncovered errors in the estimates for 2013, 2014 and 2015 for mineral soils in Grassland Converted to Cropland, Total Mineral Soil Flux and the Total Net Flux, which will be updated following public review. The corrected mineral soil estimates for Grassland Converted to Cropland are 15.1, 15.1, and 15.1 MMT CO2 Eq., respectively for 2013, 2014, 2015; the total mineral net flux is 15.6, 15.6, and 15.6 MMT CO2 Eq., respectively for the three years; and the total net flux for Land Converted to Cropland is 35.3, 35.3, and 35.3 MMT CO2 Eq., respectively for the three years. Notes: Estimates after 2012 are based on NRI data from 2012 and therefore may not fully reflect changes occurring in the latter part of the time series. Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Table 6-32: Net CO2 Flux from Soil C Stock Changes in Land Converted to Cropland (MMT C) 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 a 2015 a Grassland Converted to Cropland Mineral Soils 6.0 3.8 4.4 4.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 Organic Soils 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Forest Land Converted to Cropland 44 Quality control uncovered errors in the mineral soil C and total net flux estimates for 2015, which will be updated following public review. Based on the revision, mineral soil C stocks decreased by 15.1 MMT CO2 Eq. (4.1 MMT C) in 2015. The total net flux is a loss of 35.3 MMT CO2 Eq. (9.6 MMT C) from Land Converted to Cropland. The corrected overall trend is a decrease in C stock change by 64 percent since the initial reporting year in 1990. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-57

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 10.5 35 2013 10.7 36 2014 10.9

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    C Storage Factor, Proportion of Ini

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    1 Table 7-2: Emissions from Waste (

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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