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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

+ Absolute value does

+ Absolute value does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq. a Quality control uncovered errors in the 2015 estimates for mineral soils in Cropland Converted to Grassland for Tier 3, Total Cropland Converted to Grassland, Total Mineral Soil Flux for Tier 3, and the Total Net Flux for Land Converted Grassland, which will be updated following public review. The corrected estimate for mineral soils in Cropland Converted to Grassland for Tier 3 is (11.2) MMT CO2 Eq. for 2015 with an uncertainty ranging from -74 percent to 74 percent; Cropland Converted to Grassland is (11.2) MMT CO2 Eq. for 2015 with an uncertainty ranging from -74 percent to 74 percent; the total Tier 3 mineral stock change is also (11,2) MMT CO2 Eq. with uncertainty ranging from -74 percent to 74 percent; and the total net flux for Land Converted to Grassland is 293 MMT CO2 Eq. with uncertainty ranging from -20 percent to 20 percent. b Range of C stock change estimates predicted by Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation for a 95 percent confidence interval. Notes: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Parentheses indicate negative values or net sequestration. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time-series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. Uncertainty is also associated with a lack of reporting on biomass and dead organic matter C stock changes for Land Converted to Grassland with the exception of forest land conversion. Biomass C stock changes may be significant for managed grasslands with woody encroachment despite not having attained enough tree cover to be considered forest lands. Changes in dead organic matter C stocks are assumed to be negligible with conversion of land to grasslands with the exception of forest lands, which are included in this analysis. This assumption will be further explored in a future Inventory. QA/QC and Verification See the QA/QC and Verification section in Cropland Remaining Cropland. Recalculations Discussion Methodological recalculations in the current Inventory are associated with the following improvements, including: (1) driving the DAYCENT simulations with updated input data for land use and management from the National Resources Inventory extending the time series through 2012; (2) modifying the number of experimental study sites used to quantify model uncertainty; (3) DAYCENT model development to improve the simulation of soil temperature; (4) improvements in the cropping and land use histories that are simulated in DAYCENT between 1950 and 1979 that generate initial values for the model state variables, including the initial soil organic C stock values; and (5) incorporating belowground biomass, dead wood and litter C stock losses for Forest Land Converted to Grassland. As a result of these improvements to the Inventory, changes in stocks declined, relative to the previous report, by an average of 272.9 MMT CO 2 Eq. annually over the time series. This represents a 673 percent increase in the losses of carbon from Land Converted to Grassland compared to the previous Inventory. 62 This change is due to a larger amount of aboveground biomass C that is lost from Forest Land Converted to Grasslands, in addition to inclusion of belowground biomass, dead wood and litter C stock changes in this Inventory. Planned Improvements Soil C stock changes with land use conversion from forest land to grassland are undergoing further evaluation to ensure consistency in the time series. Different methods are used to estimate soil C stock changes in forest land and grasslands, and while the areas have been reconciled between these land uses, there has been limited evaluation of the consistency in C stock changes with conversion from forest land to grassland. In addition, biomass C stock changes will be estimated for Cropland Converted to Grassland, and other land use conversions to grassland, to the extent that data are available. One additional planned improvement for the Land Converted to Grassland category is 62 Quality control uncovered errors in the estimate and uncertainty for 2013, 2014, 2015, which will be updated following public review. These corrections impact the comparison between the prior and current Inventories in the Recalculation Discussion, which will also be updated after public review. 6-76 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 to develop an inventory of C stock changes for grasslands in Alaska. For information about other improvements, see the Planned Improvements section in Cropland Remaining Cropland and Grassland Remaining Grassland. 6.8 Wetlands Remaining Wetlands (IPCC Source Category 4D1) Wetlands Remaining Wetlands includes all wetland in an Inventory year that had been classified as wetland for the previous 20 years, and in this Inventory includes Peatlands and Coastal Wetlands. Peatlands Remaining Peatlands Emissions from Managed Peatlands Managed peatlands are peatlands which have been cleared and drained for the production of peat. The production cycle of a managed peatland has three phases: land conversion in preparation for peat extraction (e.g., clearing surface biomass, draining), extraction (which results in the emissions reported under Peatlands Remaining Peatlands), and abandonment, restoration, or conversion of the land to another use. CO 2 emissions from the removal of biomass and the decay of drained peat constitute the major greenhouse gas flux from managed peatlands. Managed peatlands may also emit CH 4 and N 2O. The natural production of CH 4 is largely reduced but not entirely shut down when peatlands are drained in preparation for peat extraction (Strack et al. 2004 as cited in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines). Drained land surface and ditch networks contribute to the CH 4 flux in peatlands managed for peat extraction. Methane emissions were considered insignificant under IPCC Tier 1 methodology (IPCC 2006), but are included in the emissions estimates for Peatlands Remaining Peatlands consistent with the 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands (IPCC 2013). Nitrous oxide emissions from managed peatlands depend on site fertility. In addition, abandoned and restored peatlands continue to release greenhouse gas emissions. Although methodologies are provided for rewetted organic soils (which includes rewetted/restored peatlands) in IPCC (2013) guidelines, information on the areal extent of rewetted/restored peatlands in the United States is currently unavailable. This Inventory estimates CO 2, N 2O, and CH 4 emissions from peatlands managed for peat extraction in accordance with IPCC (2006 and 2013) guidelines. CO2, N2O, and CH4 Emissions from Peatlands Remaining Peatlands IPCC (2013) recommends reporting CO 2, N 2O, and CH 4 emissions from lands undergoing active peat extraction (i.e., Peatlands Remaining Peatlands) as part of the estimate for emissions from managed wetlands. Peatlands occur where plant biomass has sunk to the bottom of water bodies and water-logged areas and exhausted the oxygen supply below the water surface during the course of decay. Due to these anaerobic conditions, much of the plant matter does not decompose but instead forms layers of peat over decades and centuries. In the United States, peat is extracted for horticulture and landscaping growing media, and for a wide variety of industrial, personal care, and other products. It has not been used for fuel in the United States for many decades. Peat is harvested from two types of peat deposits in the United States: sphagnum bogs in northern states (e.g., Minnesota) and wetlands in states further south (e.g., Florida). The peat from sphagnum bogs in northern states, which is nutrient poor, is generally corrected for acidity and mixed with fertilizer. Production from more southerly states is relatively coarse (i.e., fibrous) but nutrient rich. IPCC (2006 and 2013) recommend considering both on-site and off-site emissions when estimating CO 2 emissions from Peatlands Remaining Peatlands using the Tier 1 approach. Current methodologies estimate only on-site N 2O and CH 4 emissions, since off-site N 2O estimates are complicated by the risk of double-counting emissions from nitrogen fertilizers added to horticultural peat, and off-site CH 4 emissions are not relevant given the non-energy uses of peat, so methodologies are not provided in IPCC (2013) guidelines. On-site emissions from managed peatlands occur as the land is cleared of vegetation and the underlying peat is exposed to sun and weather. As this occurs, Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-77

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    1 Figure 1-1: National Inventory Ar

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Electrical Transmission and Distrib

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    2013 321 10,536 2014 323 10,613 201

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    a Miscellaneous includes TSDFs (Tre

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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