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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Methodological recalculations were applied to the entire time series to ensure time-series consistency from 1990 through 2015. Details on the emission trends through time are described in more detail in the Methodology section, above. QA/QC and Verification Tier 1 and Tier 2 QA/QC activities were conducted consistent with the U.S. QA/QC plan. Source-specific quality control measures for urban trees included checking input data, documentation, and calculations to ensure data were properly handled through the inventory process. Errors that were found during this process were corrected as necessary. Planned Improvements A consistent representation of the managed land base in the United States is discussed in Section 6.1 Representation of the U.S. Land Base, and discusses a planned improvement by the USDA Forest Service to reconcile the overlap between urban forest and non-urban forest greenhouse gas inventories. Because some plots defined as “forest” in the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service actually fall within the boundaries of the areas also defined as Census urban, there may be “double-counting” of these land areas in estimates of C stocks and fluxes for this report. Specifically, Nowak et al. (2013) estimates that 1.5 percent of forest plots measured by the FIA program fall within land designated as Census urban, suggesting that approximately 1.5 percent of the C reported in the Forest source category might also be counted in the Urban Trees source category. Future research may also enable more complete coverage of changes in the C stock in urban trees for all Settlements land. To provide estimates for all Settlements, research would need to establish the extent of overlap between the areas of land included in the Settlements land use category and Census-defined urban areas, and would have to separately characterize sequestration on non-urban Settlements land. To provide more accurate emissions estimates in the urban forest greenhouse gas inventories, the following actions will be taken: a) Development of a national definition of “settlements”. Settlements are defined as including “all developed land, including transportation infrastructure and human settlements of any size, unless they are already included under other categories. This should be consistent with the selection of national definitions”. In the U.S., different types of classifications can be used to determine settlements e.g., Census urban, Census urban/community, National Land Cover Dataset, and National Resources Inventory. A combination of these data will be used to encompass settlement areas and improve consistency with the Representation of the U.S Land Base chapter; b) For settlement areas, estimates of land area will be obtained for 1990, 2000 and 2010 and projections developed for annual growth during the 2010 to 2020 period; c) 2,500 random points will be laid on aerial images using Google Earth imagery to estimate tree cover in the settlement areas circa 1990, 2000 and 2010. Trends in tree cover change will be used to estimate tree cover in settlement between 2010 and 2020; d) Photo interpretation of settlement tree cover will be updated bi-annually to update tree cover estimates and trends; e) A review of recent literature will be performed to update C storage, sequestration and net-to-gross sequestration rates per unit tree cover. f) C rates per unit tree cover will be applied to tree cover estimates within estimated settlement areas annually to estimate past and current C values. g) Settlement areas will updated approximately every 10 years based on updated data from the US Census and NLCD developed land. N 2 O Fluxes from Settlement Soils (IPCC Source Category 4E1) Of the synthetic N fertilizers applied to soils in the United States, approximately 3.1 percent are currently applied to lawns, golf courses, and other landscaping occurring within settlement areas. Application rates are lower than those occurring on cropped soils, and, therefore, account for a smaller proportion of total U.S. soil N 2O emissions per unit area. In addition to synthetic N fertilizers, a portion of surface applied sewage sludge is applied to settlement areas, 6-106 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 and drained organic soils (i.e., soils with high organic matter content, known as Histosols) also contribute to emissions of soil N 2O. N additions to soils result in direct and indirect N 2O emissions. Direct emissions occur on-site due to the N additions. Indirect emissions result from fertilizer and sludge N that is transformed and transported to another location in a form other than N 2O (ammonia [NH 3] and nitrogen oxide [NO x] volatilization, nitrate [NO - 3 ] leaching and runoff), and later converted into N 2O at the off-site location. The indirect emissions are assigned to settlements because the management activity leading to the emissions occurred in settlements. Total N 2O emissions from Settlements Remaining Settlements 74 are 2.6 MMT CO 2 Eq. (9 kt of N 2O) in 2015. There is an overall increase of 81 percent from 1990 to 2015 due to an expanding settlement area leading to more synthetic N fertilizer applications. Interannual variability in these emissions is directly attributable to interannual variability in total synthetic fertilizer consumption, area of drained organic soils, and sewage sludge applications in the United States. Emissions from this source are summarized in Table 6-77. Table 6-77: N2O Fluxes from Soils in Settlements Remaining Settlements (MMT CO2 Eq. and kt N2O) 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MMT CO2 Eq. Direct N2O Fluxes from Soils 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 Synthetic Fertilizers 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Sewage Sludge 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Drained Organic Soils 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Indirect N2O Fluxes from Soils 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Total 1.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 kt N2O Direct N2O Fluxes from Soils 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 Synthetic Fertilizers 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 Sewage Sludge 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Drained Organic Soils + 1 1 1 1 1 1 Indirect N2O Fluxes from Soils 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 + Does not exceed 0.5 kt Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Estimates of Soil N2O for Settlements Remaining Settlements include emissions from Land Converted to Settlements because it was not possible to separate the activity data. 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Methodology For settlement soils, the IPCC Tier 1 approach is used to estimate soil N 2O emissions from synthetic N fertilizer, sewage sludge additions, and drained organic soils. Estimates of direct N 2O emissions from soils in settlements are based on the amount of N in synthetic commercial fertilizers applied to settlement soils, the amount of N in sewage sludge applied to non-agricultural land and surface disposal (see Annex 3.12 for a detailed discussion of the methodology for estimating sewage sludge application), and the area of drained organic soils used for settlements. Nitrogen applications to settlement soils are estimated using data compiled by the USGS (Ruddy et al. 2006). The USGS estimated on-farm and non-farm fertilizer use is based on sales records at the county level from 1982 through 2001 (Ruddy et al. 2006). Non-farm N fertilizer is assumed to be applied to settlements and forest lands; values for 2002 through 2015 are based on 2001 values adjusted for annual total N fertilizer sales in the United States because there is no new activity data on application after 2001. Settlement application is calculated by subtracting forest 74 Estimates of Soil N2O for Settlements Remaining Settlements include emissions from Land Converted to Settlements because it was not possible to separate the activity data. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-107

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    Electrical Transmission and Distrib

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 Table 2-7: Emissions from Agricul

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 Table 3-4: CO2, CH4, and N2O Emis

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    1 Figure 3-3: 2015 U.S. Energy Cons

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    Reciprocating Compressors 64,413 64

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    2012 13.8 13,785 2013 14.0 14,028 2

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    2012 10.5 35 2013 10.7 36 2014 10.9

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    2013 4.1 0.3 2014 5.0 0.3 1 2 3 4 5

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    Land Converted to Forest Land (92.0

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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