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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 annual carbon stock net changes from food scraps have generally decreased as well (as shown in Table 6-79 and Table 6-80). As described in the Methodology section, the carbon stocks are modeled using data on the amount of food scraps landfilled since 1960. These food scraps decompose over time, producing CH 4 and CO 2. Decomposition happens at a higher rate initially, then decreases. As decomposition decreases, the carbon stock becomes more stable. Because the cumulative carbon stock left in the landfill from previous years is (1) not decomposing as much as the carbon introduced from food scraps in a single more recent year; and (2) is much larger than the carbon introduced from food scraps in a single more recent year, the total carbon stock in the landfill is primarily driven by the more stable ‘older’ carbon stock, thus resulting in less annual change in later years.” Overall, the decrease in the landfill disposal rate of yard trimmings has more than compensated for the increase in food scrap disposal in landfills, and the net result is a decrease in annual net change landfill C storage from 26.0 MMT CO 2 Eq. (7.1 MMT C) in 1990 to 11.8 MMT CO 2 Eq. (3.2 MMT C) in 2015 (Table 6-79 and Table 6-80). Table 6-79: Net Changes in Yard Trimming and Food Scrap Carbon Stocks in Landfills (MMT CO2 Eq.) Carbon Pool 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Yard Trimmings (21.0) (7.4) (9.2) (9.1) (8.4) (8.3) (8.3) Grass (1.8) (0.6) (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) Leaves (9.0) (3.4) (4.2) (4.1) (3.9) (3.8) (3.8) Branches (10.2) (3.4) (4.1) (4.1) (3.8) (3.7) (3.7) Food Scraps (5.0) (4.0) (3.5) (3.1) (3.2) (3.6) (3.4) Total Net Flux (26.0) (11.4) (12.7) (12.2) (11.6) (11.9) (11.8) Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Parentheses indicate net sequestration. 14 15 Table 6-80: Net Changes in Yard Trimming and Food Scrap Carbon Stocks in Landfills (MMT C) Carbon Pool 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Yard Trimmings (5.7) (2.0) (2.5) (2.5) (2.3) (2.3) (2.3) Grass (0.5) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) Leaves (2.5) (0.9) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) Branches (2.8) (0.9) (1.1) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Food Scraps (1.4) (1.1) (1.0) (0.9) (0.9) (1.0) (0.9) Total Net Flux (7.1) (3.1) (3.5) (3.3) (3.2) (3.3) (3.2) Note: Totals may not sum due to independent rounding. Parentheses indicate net sequestration. 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Methodology When wastes of biogenic origin (such as yard trimmings and food scraps) are landfilled and do not completely decompose, the C that remains is effectively removed from the C cycle. Empirical evidence indicates that yard trimmings and food scraps do not completely decompose in landfills (Barlaz 1998, 2005, 2008; De la Cruz and Barlaz 2010), and thus the stock of C in landfills can increase, with the net effect being a net atmospheric removal of C. Estimates of net C flux resulting from landfilled yard trimmings and food scraps were developed by estimating the change in landfilled C stocks between inventory years, based on methodologies presented for the Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector in IPCC (2003) and the 2006 IPPC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Carbon stock estimates were calculated by determining the mass of landfilled C resulting from yard trimmings and food scraps discarded in a given year; adding the accumulated landfilled C from previous years; and subtracting the mass of C that was landfilled in previous years and has since decomposed. To determine the total landfilled C stocks for a given year, the following were estimated: (1) The composition of the yard trimmings; (2) the mass of yard trimmings and food scraps discarded in landfills; (3) the C storage factor of the landfilled yard trimmings and food scraps; and (4) the rate of decomposition of the degradable C. The composition of yard trimmings was assumed to be 30 percent grass clippings, 40 percent leaves, and 30 percent branches on a wet weight basis (Oshins and Block 2000). The yard trimmings were subdivided, because each component has its own unique adjusted C storage factor (i.e., moisture content and C content) and rate of decomposition. The mass of 6-110 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 yard trimmings and food scraps disposed of in landfills was estimated by multiplying the quantity of yard trimmings and food scraps discarded by the proportion of discards managed in landfills. Data on discards (i.e., the amount generated minus the amount diverted to centralized composting facilities) for both yard trimmings and food scraps were taken primarily from Advancing Sustainable Materials Management: Facts and Figures 2014 (EPA 2016), which provides data for 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005, 2009 and 2011 through 2013. To provide data for some of the missing years, detailed backup data were obtained from historical data tables that EPA developed for 1960 through 2013 (EPA 2015). Remaining years in the time series for which data were not provided were estimated using linear interpolation. Data for 2015 are not yet available, so they were set equal to 2014 values. The EPA (2016) report and historical data tables (EPA 2015) do not subdivide the discards (i.e., total generated minus composted) of individual materials into masses landfilled and combusted, although it provides a mass of overall waste stream discards managed in landfills 76 and combustors with energy recovery (i.e., ranging from 67 percent and 33 percent, respectively, in 1960 to 92 percent and 8 percent, respectively, in 1985); it is assumed that the proportion of each individual material (food scraps, grass, leaves, branches) that is landfilled is the same as the proportion across the overall waste stream. The amount of C disposed of in landfills each year, starting in 1960, was estimated by converting the discarded landfilled yard trimmings and food scraps from a wet weight to a dry weight basis, and then multiplying by the initial (i.e., pre-decomposition) C content (as a fraction of dry weight). The dry weight of landfilled material was calculated using dry weight to wet weight ratios (Tchobanoglous et al. 1993, cited by Barlaz 1998) and the initial C contents and the C storage factors were determined by Barlaz (1998, 2005, 2008) (Table 6-81). The amount of C remaining in the landfill for each subsequent year was tracked based on a simple model of C fate. As demonstrated by Barlaz (1998, 2005, 2008), a portion of the initial C resists decomposition and is essentially persistent in the landfill environment. Barlaz (1998, 2005, 2008) conducted a series of experiments designed to measure biodegradation of yard trimmings, food scraps, and other materials, in conditions designed to promote decomposition (i.e., by providing ample moisture and nutrients). After measuring the initial C content, the materials were placed in sealed containers along with methanogenic microbes from a landfill. Once decomposition was complete, the yard trimmings and food scraps were re-analyzed for C content; the C remaining in the solid sample can be expressed as a proportion of the initial C (shown in the row labeled “C Storage Factor, Proportion of Initial C Stored (%)” in Table 6-81). The modeling approach applied to simulate U.S. landfill C flows builds on the findings of Barlaz (1998, 2005, 2008). The proportion of C stored is assumed to persist in landfills. The remaining portion is assumed to degrade over time, resulting in emissions of CH 4 and CO 2. (The CH 4 emissions resulting from decomposition of yard trimmings and food scraps are accounted for in the Waste chapter.) The degradable portion of the C is assumed to decay according to first-order kinetics. The decay rates for each of the materials are shown in Table 6-81. The first-order decay rates, k, for each refuse type were derived from De la Cruz and Barlaz (2010). De la Cruz and Barlaz (2010) calculate first-order decay rates using laboratory data published in Eleazer et al. (1997), and a correction factor, f, is calculated so that the weighted average decay rate for all components is equal to the EPA AP- 42 default decay rate (0.04) for mixed MSW for regions that receive more than 25 inches of rain annually (EPA 1995). Because AP-42 values were developed using landfill data from approximately 1990, 1990 waste composition for the United States from EPA’s Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the United States: 1990 Update was used to calculate f. This correction factor is then multiplied by the Eleazer et al. (1997) decay rates of each waste component to develop field-scale first-order decay rates. De la Cruz and Barlaz (2010) also use other assumed initial decay rates for mixed MSW in place of the AP-42 default value based on different types of environments in which landfills in the United States are located, including dry conditions (less than 25 inches of rain annually, k=0.02) and bioreactor landfill conditions (moisture is controlled for rapid decomposition, k=0.12). As in the Landfills section of the Inventory (Section 7.1), which estimates CH 4 emissions, the overall MSW decay rate is estimated by partitioning the U.S. landfill population into three categories based on annual precipitation ranges of: (1) Less than 20 inches of rain per year, (2) 20 to 40 inches 76 EPA (2016 and 2015) reports discards in two categories: “combustion with energy recovery” and “landfill, other disposal,” which includes combustion without energy recovery. For years in which there is data from previous EPA reports on combustion without energy recovery, EPA assumes these estimates are still applicable. For 2000 to present, EPA assumes that any combustion of MSW that occurs includes energy recovery, so all discards to “landfill, other disposal” are assumed to go to landfills. Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry 6-111

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    Residential 338.3 357.8 325.5 282.5

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    1 2 Figure 3-6: Annual Deviations f

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    CO2 206.8 189.9 172.9 169.6 171.5 1

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    Land Converted to Forest Land (92.0

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    Enteric Fermentation NC NC + NC + (

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