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DRAFT Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

2017_complete_report

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 QA/QC and Verification A Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) analysis is performed each Inventory year. QA/QC checks are performed for the transcription of the published data set used to populate the Inventory data set, including the published GHGRP, LFGTE, and flare databases. While preparing the Inventory, QA/QC checks are not performed on the data itself against primary data used. EPA verifies annual reports from Subpart HH through a multi-step process (e.g., combination of electronic checks and manual reviews) to identify potential errors and ensure that data submitted to EPA are accurate, complete, and consistent. 3 A primary focus of the QA/QC checks in past Inventory reports was to ensure that CH 4 recovery estimates were not double-counted and that all LFGTE projects and flares were included in the respective project databases. QA/QC checks performed in the past for the recovery databases were not performed in this Inventory because new data were not added to the recovery databases for 2015. The primary calculation spreadsheet is tailored from the IPCC waste model and has been verified previously using the original, peer-reviewed IPCC waste model. All model input values were verified by secondary QA/QC review. Recalculations Discussion Four major methodological recalculations were performed for the current Inventory. First, net CH 4 emissions as directly reported to subpart HH of EPA’s GHGRP were used for 2010 to 2015. Second, a 12.5 percent scale-up factor was applied to the subpart HH data to account for emission from MSW landfills that are not required to report under subpart HH. Third, the net CH 4 emissions from 2010 to 2015 from subpart HH were used to estimate, or back-cast, net CH 4 emissions for 2005 to 2009. Fourth, the previously used method, which relies on the first order decay model, was applied with revised MSW generation data for years 1990 to 2004. A detailed description of these methodological changes are included below. Using directly reported net CH4 emissions from the GHGRP. The EPA has relied on a top-down approach to calculate CH 4 generation for MSW landfills in previous Inventory reports. The SOG survey has been used in previous Inventories, but is no longer being published as routinely as it has been in the past. Therefore, EPA investigated whether a bottom-up (or landfill-specific) approach could be used in future Inventories by either supplementing the GHGRP annual waste disposal data with other relevant datasets (e.g., LMOP, state data) to provide the annual waste disposal data needed for the FOD model; or, using directly reported net CH 4 emissions from EPA’s GHGRP. EPA’s GHGRP requires landfills meeting or exceeding a threshold of 25,000 metric tons of CH 4 generation per year to report a variety of facility-specific information, including historical and current waste disposal quantities by year, CH 4 generation, gas collection system details, CH 4 recovery, and CH 4 emissions. EPA decided upon using the directly reported net CH 4 emissions data for the years the data are available (i.e., 2010 to 2015). These data are considered to be Tier 3 data (the highest quality) under the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, and undergo an extensive QA/QC review and verification process by EPA. Additionally, these data incorporate oxidation factors that align with recent literature. The Inventory still applies an oxidation factor of 0.10 and a DOC value of 0.2028 to the bulk MSW disposed in landfills for the years 1990 to 2004. Applying a scale-up factor to the GHGRP data. The landfills reporting to EPA’s GHGRP are considered the largest emitters, but not all landfills are required to report. When this dataset is supplemented with others, such as the EPA LMOP data and the Waste Business Journal data, a complete data set of the annual quantity of waste landfilled may be represented. EPA is continuing to investigate the number of non-reporting landfills to the GHGRP and the total annual quantities of CH 4 emissions from these non-reporting landfills. For this Inventory, EPA has applied a scale-up factor of 12.5 percent to the GHGRP net CH 4 emissions to account for the non-reporting landfills. This scale-up factor may be revised in future years after a thorough review of available data for the non-reporting landfills is completed. 3 See . Waste 7-11

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Back-casting net CH4 emissions from the GHGRP. The EPA also investigated various back-casting approaches to estimate CH 4 emissions throughout the entire time series (back to 1990) while relying solely on EPA’s GHGRP emissions data. Back-casting this far back with a limited set of data is not recommended in Volume 1: Chapter 5 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, which provides best practices for time series consistency when implementing methodological changes and refinements. Plotting the GHGRP back-casted emissions against the emissions estimates from the previously used method showed an alignment of the data in 2004 and later years. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines recommend using a splicing technique if the data overlap for a period of years as the data do with the revised methodology. Therefore, EPA decided to back-cast the GHGRP emissions from 2009 to 2005 only, while also applying the 12.5 percent scale-up factor to the back-casted GHGRP data. Recalculations to the MSW generation and disposal data and CH4 generation estimates. The revised methodology relies on the previous methodology for the years 1990 to 2004, whereby a disposal factor is applied to nationwide, annual MSW generation amounts. The MSW generation data were modified from the previous Inventory for years 1990 to 2013 to reflect recently published data (i.e., EREF 2016), and to align with how MSW quantities are applied under Subpart HH of the GHGRP to estimate CH 4 generation. Revisions were made to the SOG survey data applied by the Inventory to exclude construction and demolition (C&D) waste and inerts from the annual quantities of MSW generated used in the first order decay model. Years that EPA has “hard” data for MSW generation include 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2013. EPA used MSW generation data and population changes for those years to extrapolate MSW generation for years 1990 and 2001. EPA used the 2002 and 2004 data to interpolate MSW generation for 2003. Merging methodologies for time series consistency. Volume 1: Chapter 5 of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines provides guidance on good practices for time series consistency. As stated in this chapter, “the time series is a central component of the greenhouse gas inventory because it provides information on historical emissions trends and tracks the effects of strategies to reduce emissions at the national level. All emissions estimates in a time series should be estimated consistently, which means that as far as possible, the time series should be calculated using the same method and data sources in all years.” This chapter also provides guidance on techniques to splice, or join methodologies together. EPA's GHGRP data are considered higher tier data compared to the national MSW generation estimates, and a new methodology was required to apply the GHGRP data to the Inventory because it is only available for a portion of the time series. The overlap technique is an example of a splicing technique. Other examples of splicing techniques include surrogate data, interpolation, and extrapolation. The overlap technique can be used when new data become available that cannot be applied to earlier years in the time series (IPCC 2006). EPA developed a time series based on the relationship (or overlap) observed between the two methods (the previous method and the new method) during the years when both methods align and can be used. The previously used method in this instance is based on the first order decay model and national MSW generation estimates. The new method refers to EPA's GHGRP data (for years 2010 to 2015, and back-casted estimates for years 1990 to 2009). Figure 7-2 shows how the revised Inventory methodology compares to back-casting the directly reported GHGRP data for MSW landfills. EPA decided to apply the previously used method for the earlier years in the time series (i.e., 1990 to 2004), and the new method for later years (i.e., 2005 to 2015) for time series consistency. Figure 7-3 compares the previously used Inventory methodology to the revised Inventory methodology. The CH 4 emissions estimates from the previously used method and the new method compare relatively well across the time series. 7-12 DRAFT Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2015

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 irreversible accumulati

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    Forest Land Remaining Forest Land:

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    1 2 3 Figure ES-15: U.S. Greenhouse

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    1 Figure 1-1: National Inventory Ar

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    a Emission estimates reported in th

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    a Emissions from Wood Biomass and E

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    CH4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Pet

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    1 2 Table 2-8: U.S. Greenhouse Gas

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    1 2 3 4 Overall, in 2015, waste act

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    Cement Production 33.3 45.9 32.0 35

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    Total 1,862.5 2,441.6 2,197.3 2,059

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    Total Emissions 6,366.7 7,315.6 6,7

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    N2O 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Oth

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    International Bunker Fuels a 0.2 0.

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    U.S. Territories a 28.0 50.1 41.7 4

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    Fuel Oil 27.2 45.6 36.7 37.6 37.1 3

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    Medium- and Heavy-Duty 0.5 0.9 0.7

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    Coal b 1,653.7 1,596.3 1,809.1 -3%

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    1 Table 3-20: Adjusted Consumption

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    Gas/Waste Product 1990 2005 2011 20

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    Activity 1990 2005 2011 2012 2013 2

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    Previous Estimated Emissions from S

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    Emissions (w/o Plunger) (MT) 372,28

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    1 Table 4-89: CO2 Emissions from Zi

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    + Does not exceed 0.05 MMT CO2 Eq.

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    Other Lands Converted Grassland Min

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