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NI_RPPI_Statistical_Report_Q4_2016

NI_RPPI_Statistical_Report_Q4_2016

Quarter 1 Quarter 2

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 NI Standardised House Price NI, UK and ROI GDP Indices Figure 6.1: NI Standardised House Price with NICEI, UK and ROI GDP Indices £250,000 NI Standardised House Price (left side axis) and NI, UK and ROI GDP Indices (right side axis) 115.0 110.0 £200,000 105.0 £150,000 Q1, 2015: 100 100.0 95.0 £100,000 Q4 2016 Std House Price : £125,480 90.0 85.0 £50,000 80.0 75.0 £0 70.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 NI Standardised House Price NICEI UK GDP ROI GDP 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USA subprime mortgage crisis begins NI house prices increase faster than in UK NI economic activity peaks in Q2 and house prices peak in Q3 UK GDP falls to lowest level since 2005 Irish GDP falls to lowest level since 2005 NI employee jobs fall to lowest level since 2004 NI claimant count rises 40% over year Portugal bailout and second Greek bailout agreed Bank of England injects £75bn into UK economy through quantitative easing NI loses 8,800 employee jobs NI claimant falls for 11 consecutive months Ireland exit bailout programme Construction employment up for first time in 5 months 6 months of growth but pace of activity eased in Q3 Uneven prospects across countries/regions; global growth 3.1%, EU 1.5%, Ireland 4.8%, UK 2.5% NI employee jobs peak in June Lehman Brothers collapses UK enters recession UK inflation hits 5.2% in September Irish and Greek bailout agreed UK Spending Review outlines cuts in public spending NI economic activity falls every quarter during 2010 NI economic activity at lowest rate since 2004 NI employee jobs rise by almost 3,000 over the year NI Executive launch Economic Strategy and £200m Economy & Jobs Initiative Employment in manufacturing highest growth rate in 20 years Highest rise in export activity since August 2007 Construction Output still 48% below Q1 2007 peak UK vote to leave the European Union Falls in the Euro and Dollar exchange rates boost exports New orders fall for first time in 15 months The graph shows how the fall in prices from the Q3 2007 peak has most closely aligned to the NI economic performance. ROI GDP reported a dramatic rise in Q1 2015, more details can be found at http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter12016/ 18

Figure 6.2: Ratio of NI Median House Sale Price to Median Annual Gross Earnings 10 9 9.1 8 7 6.8 7.2 6 5.6 5.9 5.5 5 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, NISRA https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/articles/annual-survey-hours-and-earnings Figure 6.2 shows the ratio of median sale price of residential properties in Northern Ireland to median annual gross earnings of all full time employees in Northern Ireland for each year between 2005 and 2016. In 2005 median house prices were around five and a half times a median annual full time salary, but by 2007, at the peak of the market, prices were more than 9 times the median salary. With the downturn in the property market since 2008, the ratio fell each year until 2012. The ratio rose in 2014 and 2016 and the median residential property sale price is now 4.7 times the median annual gross full time earnings. 19

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