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High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). 485 After establishing the context for the

study, the paper addresses the issues of intelligence in the United Nations (UN) and how

intelligence differs from information. Then, it analyzes the intelligence functions of the

U.S. military and the UNHCR by comparing strategic warning and the planning and conduct

of refugee relief operations in each organization.

The end of the Cold War brought profound changes to the international security

environment. Today, there is a paradox that while there is less threat of global war, there

is also less peace in the world. Armed conflicts have increased dramatically since 1989,

but the fighting is not between states; it is within them. 486 The result has been a proliferation

of complex humanitarian emergencies which “combine internal conflicts with

large-scale displacements of people, mass famine, and fragile or failing economic,

political, and social institutions” (U.S. Mission to the UN a: 1). The accompanying map

485 In keeping with common practice, the term UNHCR refers to the institution known as the Office of the

UNHCR. The term High Commissioner refers to the individual occupying this office.

486 According to the UN, “of the 82 armed conflicts in the world between 1989 and 1992, only three flared

up between countries. The rest occurred internally...” See Hal Kane, The Hour of Departure: Forces That Create

Refugees and Migrants (Washington, DC: Worldwatch Institute, 1995), 21.

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