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Editors’ introductions

Editors’ introductions KEY TAKEAWAYS Never has a G20 summit had such stark divisions among its leading members The first of three agenda pillars at the G20 summit will be Building Resilience Prospects for Hamburg G20 leaders will face a wide range of urgent global issues, writes John Kirton John Kirton is Co-director of the G20 Research Group, Director of the G7 Research Group, and Co-director of the BRICS Research Group and the Global Health Diplomacy Program, all based at Trinity College and the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, where he is a professor of political science and director of the International Relations Program. He is also a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China and author of China’s G20 Leadership. @jjkirton The 12th G20 summit, taking place in Hamburg, Germany on 7 and 8 July 2017, will be an unusually important event. It is the first G20 summit hosted by Germany, the fourth-ranked economic power in the world. Its chair, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is the most experienced G20 leader, has been in office since 2005 and is the only G20 leader to have attended every G20 summit since its start in 2008. It will be the first G20 summit chaired and hosted by a former environment minister, professional scientist and woman, at a time when climate change, science and technology and women’s issues stand out. It will take place a few months before she faces a general election. It will feature her global leadership on key issues, above all climate change control and openness in trade and migration, where she stands opposed to a newly elected, internationally inexperienced US president attached to the opposite approach. Never before has a G20 summit faced such stark divisions among its leading members on the summit’s eve. Hamburg will bring a diminution and delay – not a durable decline or disappearance – of the G20’s effectiveness Old hands and new faces The US President Donald Trump will arrive in Hamburg having just withdrawn the United States from the historic 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement. Other newcomers are France’s Emmanuel Macron, with a strong, fresh electoral mandate, Italy’s Paolo Gentiloni who hosted the successful G7 Taormina Summit in Sicily in May, and South Korea’s Moon Jae-in. It will be the second summit for Britain’s electorally weakened Theresa May, Argentina’s Mauricio Macri, Brazil’s Michel Temer and Saudi Arabia’s Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and the third for Canada’s Justin Trudeau as well as Donald Tusk, President of the EU’s European Council. The veterans will be India’s Narendra Modi and Indonesia’s Joko Widodo at their fourth, Japan’s Shinz Abe and Mexico’s Enrique Pena Nieto at their fifth, Russia’s Vladimir Putin at his sixth, and South Africa’s Jacob Zuma at his tenth, as well as Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who’s at his eleventh. 38 G20 Germany: The Hamburg Summit • July 2017

Editors’ introductions The second of the three agenda pillars addresses Improving Sustainability The final agenda pillar under discussion at Hamburg is Assuming Responsibility John Kirton Co-director G20 Research Group Agenda items Germany will further seek to mobilise the work of the G20’s six ministerial forums, seven engagement groups from business, labour, think tanks, science, youth, civil society and women, invited guest leaders from Spain, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore and the chair of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the heads of major multilateral organisations. To counter popular antiglobalisation sentiment, it will seek to communicate convincingly how the G20 works for the benefit of all. At Hamburg G20 leaders will confront a broad range of pressing global challenges, arranged under three agenda pillars. The first pillar, Building Resilience, contains the world economy, trade and investment, employment, financial markets and international financial architecture, and international tax cooperation. The second pillar, Improving Sustainability, includes climate and energy, the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development, digitalisation, global health and women’s empowerment. The third pillar, Assuming Responsibility, covers tackling the causes of displacement, partnership with Africa, fighting terrorism, anticorruption, and agriculture and food security. In all, Hamburg is likely to be a summit of solid success. It will advance agreement on terrorism, anticorruption and macroeconomic growth, employment, tax, women’s economic empowerment and, perhaps, health and Africa. Given the large differences between Donald Trump and most other leaders, little will be done on trade and investment, financial regulation, digitalisation, migration, food, sustainability and, above all, on the central, compelling threat of climate change. G20 effectiveness underlined This two-speed performance will be driven by the unifying shocks of the recent deadly terrorist attacks in the UK, and American memories of 11 September 2001, and also the failure of the multilateral organisations of the UN to control or prevent such threats. The rising relative capabilities of China, India, Germany and France and their leaders’ high domestic political control and popularity will propel cooperation against terrorism and corruption. Yet the resistance of a domestically distracted Trump, backed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will prevent progress on climate change and many Sustainable Development Goals. Still, Hamburg will bring a diminution and delay – not a durable decline or disappearance – of the G20’s growing effectiveness. Europe, China, India and Canada, supported by their sympathetic partners, will unite to lead the G20, along with the United States where possible, and without it until the US learns how much it needs G20 cooperation to meet American needs. G20 July 2017G20 Germany: The Hamburg Summit 39

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