28 August world supplement

DT
VOL1, ISSUE 31 | Monday, august 28, 2017
World Tribune
16 years and counting...
Trump’s Afghan
strategy risks the
2 worst of both worlds
3
Merkel assuming
leadership role in world
of erratic strongmen
7
Saudi renews
Iraq ties in bid
to distance Iran

2
Monday, august 28, 2017
DT
Analysis
Analysis
3
Monday, august 28, 2017
DT
Trump’s Afghan strategy risks the worst
of both worlds
Merkel assuming leadership role in world of
erratic strongmen
• Tribune Desk
Donald Trump has probably never
heard of the Grand Old Duke of York
and his 10,000 men. But in spelling
out his new Afghan strategy, the US
president gave a good impersonation
of that symbol of military muddle-headedness,
incompetence and
futility immortalised in the English
nursery rhyme.
By marching US troops back up
the Afghan hill, having previously
solemnly vowed to march them
down and out of the country, Trump
risks the worst of both worlds: leaving
the US and its allies neither up
nor down, without a clearly defined
mission, and stuck in the middle of
a worsening conflict.
His speech on Afghanistan on the
night of August 21 was long delayed,
and it is easy to see why. White
House advisers had been arguing for
months over what to do about the
16-year-old war, America’s longest.
When the speech came, there were
no new ideas or initiatives. Instead
Trump retained the main planks of
Barack Obama’s policy and tried to
dress it up as something fresh.
Two changes
Two things have changed. One is
that Trump has agreed with his
generals that troop levels must be
increased, reversing the drawdown
during the Obama years. There are
nearly 10,000 US military personnel
in Afghanistan, mostly special forces,
advisers and trainers. That figure
looks likely to rise by about 4,000,
though Trump gave no number.
The other change is more dangerous.
After the searing US experience
in Iraq, policymakers
broadly agreed that future overseas
missions should have attainable
objectives, a fixed duration, and a
clear exit strategy. Not setting such
parameters in advance was George
W Bush’s big mistake in Iraq. Obama
was careful not to repeat it.
Trump has ignored that hardwon
knowledge. He has committed
the US to waging an open-ended
conflict with no limit on its scope or
duration, and with no agreed measure
of what constitutes victory.
Now Britain and other Nato allies
will be under pressure to perform
a similar volte-face, and increase
their combined troop deployments
above the current level of roughly
6,500.
US Army soldiers from the 2nd Platoon, B battery 2-8 field artillery, fire a howitzer artillery piece at Seprwan Ghar forward fire base in Panjwai district, Kandahar province
southern Afghanistan on June 12, 2011
REUTERS
‘Fight to win’
Trump’s repeated assertion that the
US would “fight to win” is misleading
at best and reckless at worst. Obama
almost trebled US combat troop levels
to around 100,000 after taking
office in 2009, in an all-out attempt
to finish the war. It did not work, although
Obama claimed it did, and he
slashed troop levels accordingly. The
history of warfare in Afghanistan
suggests nobody ever “wins”.
The US has hardly any combat
regulars in theatre now, and
Trump’s proposed reinforcement of
about 4,000 is a drop in the ocean.
The security situation in Afghanistan
has deteriorated sharply. The
Afghan government faces a resurgent
Taliban, a continued al-Qaeda
menace and a rising Islamic State
presence. Kabul, once relatively
safe, has been targeted by repeated
suicide bombings.
Government loses control
According to US estimates, government
forces control less than 60%
of Afghanistan, with the remainder
of the country either contested or
under the control of the insurgents.
In an indication of how increasing
troop numbers can make matters
worse, the annual total number of
civilian deaths and injuries has broken
previous records each year since
Obama’s “surge” in 2009. According
to the UN’s mid-year report for 2017,
there were 1,662 civilian deaths and
3,581 casualties. Armed conflict has
claimed the lives of 26,512 civilians
and injured 48,931 since 2009.
The US strategy of training and
equipping the Afghan army and
police to bear the brunt of the fighting,
which Trump indicated will
continue, has also been costly. US
officials say an average of 20 Afghan
national army soldiers are dying
each month. The Afghan Ministry
of Interior Affairs says 1,302 police
officers were killed between March
and August, about nine a day.
US TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN
Lambastes Pakistan
Despite Trump’s bald threat to
cut financial support for Pakistan,
which is accused by Washington
of failing to suppress Taliban bases
in the north-west of the country,
he offered no reason as to why his
warnings would be heeded when
those of Obama and Bush were ignored.
His tough words are likely
to be seen in Islamabad as typical
Trump bluster.
A parallel statement by Rex Tillerson,
the US secretary of state, that
Washington is ready to conduct unconditional
peace talks with the Taliban,
similarly offered nothing new.
The Taliban dismissed the president’s
speech as vague and unhelpful,
and have threatened to cause
more American pain if the war is
intensified.
Trump’s political U-turn in recommitting
to a war he has previously
dismissed as a waste of time
and resources marks a victory for
the “realists” in the White House,
notably HR McMaster, his national
security adviser, and James Mattis,
his defence secretary, both of
whom are former generals.
They were opposed by Steve
Areas with significant activity by:
Taliban
Islamic State group
Control zone
Control/support zone
High-confidence support zone
Low-confidence support zone
ISW* assessment for
the period Nov 2016 -
March 2017
January
49 48 52
12
KABUL
99 98
117
155
317
499
418
Bannon and other champions of
Trump’s nationalist, “America first”
platform, which pledged to end foreign
entanglements. Bannon was
dismissed from his post as chief
strategist last week.
Despite his efforts to justify his
about-turn in his prime time TV
speech, Trump will find it difficult
to convince his domestic supporters,
and his foreign allies, that he
has a workable policy. And his bad
relations with Nato mean he may
struggle to get the European troops
he wants as the US once again
marches up the Afghan hill. •
Deployment history
310
127
US troops killed
100
Thousand
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
55
22
8,400
14
80
60
40
20
10*
• Reuters, Berlin
Alarmed by the rise of unpredictable
strongmen around the world,
Angela Merkel feels she must do
more to defend the Western order
on which Germany depends.
It has been a transformation for
the chancellor. Last year, she dismissed
as “absurd” the idea that
she should head a Western alliance
shaken by Donald Trump’s US election
victory.
Weakened by Europe’s migrant
crisis, Merkel even wondered if she
should run for re-election. “She
asked herself: ‘Can I do this? Am I
ready for this?’” one close aide said.
But now, with the migrant issue
under control in Germany, the
63-year-old is ready. Visibly happier,
she is campaigning for next
month’s election with renewed
conviction: a resolve to secure a
world order threatened by leaders
like Trump and North Korea’s Kim
Jong Un.
On the campaign trail, she likes
to invoke the “uncertain situation
in the world”.
The message is clear. “Things
have changed,” the aide said. “This
means Germany must take on more
responsibility.”
German foreign policy has been
constrained by the legacy of the last
World War. But Merkel is pushing
Berlin’s interests beyond its traditional
European sphere.
Guardian Angela
In April last year, Merkel described
how she realised that trouble
on the European Union’s doorstep
meant Germany must play a
bigger role beyond its borders.
Looking at a map showing the
EU’s passport-free area in one colour
and neighbouring countries in
another, she saw clearly how close
Syria and Ukraine were.
“This is Europe’s neighbourhood,”
she said.
Reacting to crises in this neighbourhood,
Merkel first strongarmed
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan
into a deal to stem the migrant flow
from Syria in exchange for EU economic
aid.
Now, she wants to slow the tide
of refugees from Africa with a new
“Marshall Plan” to bring investment
and business growth that will persuade
people to stay at home.
Merkel is starting to take diplomatic
positions out of conviction,
a departure from her consensus-based
style during the euro
zone and migrant crises.
This shift began after Trump’s
election, when she set out how she
would deal with him: a readiness
to work closely on the basis of the
values of democracy, freedom, respect
for the law and for the dignity
of people.
Climate
For Merkel, climate policy belongs
to this value set. She sees it as crucial
to managing globalisation and
it has been her principal point of
disagreement with Trump.
She wanted the six members of
the G7 other than the US to issue
a statement backing the accord,
sources close to her said. In the end,
Germany, France and Italy signed.
Britain, Canada and Japan - all with
close US ties - did not.
Compromised
Despite her growing diplomatic
assertiveness, it is this instinct
to compromise that handicaps
Merkel’s quest for a place in history
alongside Konrad Adenauer, who
led Germany’s rebirth after World
War II, and Helmut Kohl, who reunified
the country.
Restricting Merkel’s room for
manoeuvre is the fact that many
Germans are turned off by foreign
policy, with one survey showing
just 30% of voters think it is a top
priority for Germany to do more to
promote its interests abroad
“The big problem is that this is
not anything that sells at home,”
said Techau at the American Academy.
“You can’t win votes with
this.”
Merkel is also hampered by Germany’s
Nazi past, which has left it
without the military might needed
to project power.
Yet Kohl, Merkel’s mentor, took
chances, first with reunification
and then by defying public opinion
to bring in the euro.
Merkel is altogether more cautious.
In 2015, “merkeln” - a verb
meaning being to be unable to take
decisions - was named Germany’s
Youth Word of the Year.
David McAllister, a close party
ally, describes how “she looks at
the different approaches to solve
the problem and has a debate with
her advisers about what’s best: A,
B, C, or D. Then we go with the best
option.”
This methodical approach,
honed during her training as a
physicist, can leave her upstaged
by more dynamic leaders.
Trump and Putin did just that at
the G20 summit when they walked
out of a session on climate change
to hold a bilateral meeting that
stole headlines and highlighted the
‘hard power’ they wield and Merkel
does not.
Merkel still welcomed their
meeting. As a committed Atlanticist,
she does not want to alienate
an American president. But the episode
showed the limits of what she
can achieve on the world stage.
“Germans have learnt that they
will only do well if they are ready to
compromise,” said one senior party
official. “We don’t want to be the
ones people look at, and feel they
must tremble or admire.” •
Yingluck’s flight provides Thai junta welcome way out
• Tribune Desk
Thailand’s generals could hardly
have planned it better.
The flight of ousted prime minister
Yingluck Shinawatra before a
court verdict for negligence leaves
the populist movement that has
dominated Thai politics for a generation
leaderless and in despair.
It also means Yingluck doesn’t
become a martyr, as she could have
done if she had been jailed over
the costly rice subsidy scheme, or
get let off lightly, which could have
raised awkward questions over why
the military overthrew her in 2014.
What it doesn’t do is eliminate
the Shinawatras’ power base: the
largely poor and provincial Thais
who have had the numbers to deliver
them victory in every election
since 2001 despite the best efforts
of pro-army and deeply royalist
conservatives.
Yingluck fled just before a court
verdict on her criminal negligence
trial over a multi-billion dollar
scheme to help poor farmers, sources
within her Puea Thai Party said.
They said she had gone to Dubai
to join her brother Thaksin Shinawatra,
the self-made billionaire
and family patriarch who was overthrown
as prime minister in 2006
and fled to escape a corruption
conviction he says was politically
motivated.
Figurehead
Yingluck, 50, had been banned from
politics for five years by the junta in
2015, but could have rallied support
for her party at elections the army
has promised for next year.
That would have been harder if
she had been sentenced over the estimated
$8 billion losses on the rice
scheme, but jail would have made
her a rallying point with glamorous
star power at home and abroad.
Her departure meant she would
not become Thailand’s version
of neighbouring Myanmar’s once
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a top candidate of the Christian Democratic
Union Party (CDU), attends an election rally ahead of the upcoming federal
election in Sankt Peter-Ording, Germany on August 21, 2017
REUTERS
Yingluck Shinawatra
AFP
long-detained Aung San Suu Kyi.
“This will embolden the military
government because they did not
have to put her in jail,” said Thitinan
Pongsudhirak, the director of
the Institute of Security and International
Studies at Chulalongkorn
University.
Government spokesman Weerachon
Sukhontapatipak declined to
comment on the case or the implications
of Yingluck’s absence.
There was no evidence the junta
had been aware Yingluck might
have intended to skip bail, but suspicions
circulated among her supporters
that her departure was very
convenient for the military government.
Yingluck took over despite being
a political novice after Thaksin fled
into exile and succeeded through
personal charm and charisma, as
well as his distant backing. There
are no obvious candidates now.
Power base
The constituency the Shinawatras
represented has not disappeared,
however. That potentially complicates
the military’s plans for an
election even with a new constitution
that entrenches the power of
the generals for years to come.
Electoral numbers show the
poorer, aspiring parts of Thai society
have more votes than backers of
the entrenched elite and its yellow
shirt followers.
The majority Shinawatra-supporting
northeastern and northern
regions alone account for more
than 45% of Thailand’s population,
according to the most recent official
data. They accounted for less than
12% of the economy.
“If they field a dog as a candidate
in the northeast it would win a
seat in the election,” said Wassawan
Ken-kla, 40, a local leader in northeastern
Udon Thani.
After Yingluck’s flight, poor, rural
voters who had benefited from
Shinawatra policies may become
even more sympathetic, said Paul
Chambers, a lecturer at Naresuan
University in the northern Thailand.
“Other Puea Thai leaders will
soon emerge,” he said. •

4
Monday, august 28, 2017
DT
Week in Review
Week in Review 5
DT
Monday, august 28, 2017
august 21
Chile rejects iron mine to protect penguins
reuters
Chile rejected plans for a $2.5billion iron-mining project in
order to protect thousands of endangered penguins.
Local firm Andes Iron wanted to extract millions of
tons of the metal in the northern Coquimbo region and
build a new port to ship it out.
A committee of ministers said the project did not offer
sufficient environmental guarantees, echoing warnings by
environmental groups.
“The compensation measures were insufficient and
could not guarantee the protection of species of concern,”
such as the Humboldt penguin, said Environment Minister
Marcelo Mena.
Coquimbo lies on the coast south of the three islands
that make up the National Humboldt Penguin Reserve,
home to numerous wildlife species.
Among them is the endangered Humboldt penguin,
distinguished by pink rings round its eyes and a black
stripe across its chest.
reuters
august 24
British Queen’s police
horses kick back in France
AFP
august 25
South Africa’s first online
rhino horn auction ends
South Africa’s first online auction of rhino horn concluded Friday
amid outrage from conservationists, but no details of the sale were
immediately available.
“There is definitely no feedback today,” a representative of
the auctioneers said, adding that a statement would be issued
Monday.
The Private Rhino Owners Association, which supported the
auction, said it expected to hear from the auction’s organiser
possibly at the weekend.
“They have to do an analysis of the various bids and get average
prices,” the association’s chairman Pelham Jones said.
The auctioneers did not set an opening price for bids, but
bidders paid 100,000 rand ($7,626) to register and only registered
bidders had access to the bidding process.
august 22
Rodents force Nigerian president to work from home
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari will work from home after rodents
damaged his official office during a more than 100-day overseas
medical absence, a presidential spokesman said Tuesday.
The animals damaged furniture and air conditioning fittings in
the president’s official Abuja office while he was in London receiving
treatment, his media adviser Garba Shehu confirmed.
“These are also general works and it is not uncommon for Nigerian
presidents to also work from the presidential villa. He has used the
residential office for many years,” said Shehu.
“What is important is that the job gets done. Whether he does
it from his bedroom or his sitting room or his anteroom, it does not
matter. Let the job be done. And the job will be done,” Shehu told the
Arise News broadcaster.
Shehu was unable to confirm what type of rodent was responsible
for the damage, which occurred during the president’s prolonged
absence for an undisclosed medical condition.
“I do not have that level of detail,” he said, adding that it was
unclear how long the refurbishment would last.
During his time away, tensions surfaced back home, where calls
grew for him to either return or resign.
The Nigerian leader met with his security chiefs at his official
residence on Tuesday, ordering them to deal with threats to the unity
of the country. In the weeks before Buhari left for London on May 7, he
AFP
also worked from the presidential residence, missing cabinet meetings
and having official documents transported to him.
AFP
august 23
Charlie Hebdo publishes provocative Islam cartoon
French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo published
Wednesday a provocative front-page cartoon about
Islam and the recent terror attacks in Spain, leading
to criticism that it risked fanning Islamophobia.
The latest edition of the magazine, which was
targeted by Islamist gunmen in 2015, shows two
people lying in a pool of blood having been run over
by a van next to the words “Islam, eternal religion
of peace.”
A dozen extremists of Moroccan origin are
believed to have plotted last week’s attacks in
Barcelona and Cambrils, where 15 people were killed
and over 100 injured after a van and car were driven
into crowds.
The attackers are thought by investigators
to have been radicalised by an extremist Islamic
preacher who died in a house where the group was
trying to produce explosives.
Critics of Charlie Hebdo saw its front-page as
tarring an entire religion, practised by around 1.5 billion
people worldwide, by implying it was inherently
violent.
Iraqi forces surround
Islamic State
Iraqi forces have retaken almost all of Tal Afar, Islamic State’s stronghold in the country’s northwest, the
Iraqi military said on Sunday. Picture shows, smoke rises during clashes between joint troops of Iraqi army
and Shia Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) against the Islamic State militants in Tal Afar, Iraq, August 26
After years of pounding the pavement in Britain, four-legged veterans
of the country’s fight against crime are hoofing it across the
Channel to kick back under the sun in southwest France.
The rolling green hills of the Dordogne region are home to 22
retired police horses, who are getting their second wind in a sanctuary
run by former Scotland Yard officer Roland Phillips.
For some of the retirees, the sanctuary situated a few kilometres
from the town of Brantome is a place to recover from the riots
that rocked England in 2011 after the shooting dead of a mixedrace
man by London police.
In keeping with British policing tradition, the officers used horses
rather than tear gas or water cannon to disperse the crowds.
“The last line of defence is the horse,” Phillips explained.
august 26
Clashes kill 32 in India as court convicts guru of rape
At least 32 people were killed when clashes broke out in northern India after a court
convicted a controversial religious leader of raping two of his followers, sparking fury
among tens of thousands of supporters who had gathered for the verdict.
Authorities rushed hundreds of troops to the city of Panchkula after followers of
guru Ram Rahim Singh torched cars went on a rampage throwing rocks and attacking
television vans and setting fire to dozens of private vehicles.
More than 100,000 were estimated to have gone to the city in Haryana state,
where India’s federal investigations agency had set up a special court to rule on the
charge that he had raped two female devotees.
Authorities said 32 people had been killed and around 180 injured after rioting
broke out in Haryana, where many areas were now under curfew.
“The situation continues to be grim but we are gaining some ground. Hopefully
we will mobilise more forces in the night to take control,” a senior state official said
on condition of anonymity.
He said the large crowd went berserk soon after the verdict was pronounced and
attacked police and set vehicles afire before the police took action.
AFP
Most of the fatalities were caused by gunshots, the officer said.
august 27
Wildfire forces 1,100 to flee in Canada
A new wildfire forced 1,100 residents in Canada’s westernmost province of British Columbia to flee overnight and the blaze was still burning
out of control Friday, officials said.
The blaze started about 20 kilometers east of the Okanagan wine region
in the residential community of Joe Rich, near Kelowna.
Stoked by high winds, it caught many off guard, including one woman
who told public broadcaster CBC that flames shot up trees around her while
she was out jogging on backcountry trails.
“The fire exhibited aggressive behavior,” Justine Hunse of the British
Columbia wildfire service said. “It’s still out of control.”
However, she added, “due to a drop in temperature and winds, the fire
did not grow significantly overnight.”
British Columbia chief wildfire information officer Kevin Skrepnek said it
was likely human-caused.
The area east of Kelowna is heavily forested and the mountainous terrain
is steep, making the fire difficult to fight.
AFP
AFP

6
Monday, august 28, 2017
DT
Facts
Insight
7
Monday, august 28, 2017
DT
Who owns Mars? Mining puts spotlight on out of this
world property claims
• Thomson Reuters
Foundation, Toronto
Pictures: AP, Getty Images
© GRAPHIC NEWS
2000
1980
1990
Can anyone claim the red planet or
natural resources on asteroids?
Business leaders and legal experts
say the question has become
more than philosophical as a growing
number of firms, often backed
by capital and technology from Silicon
Valley, have set their sights on
the resources of outer space asteroids
and Mars.
In order to avoid conflicts between
competing companies and
countries over outer space resources,
more work needs to be done
on Earth to determine who owns
Jul 1, 1961: Diana Frances
Spencer born. Her parents
split up when she
is six years old
commodities taken from celestial
bodies, analysts said.
“There is a huge debate on
whether companies can simply
travel to space and extract its resources,”
said Barry Kellman, a law
Feb 24, 1981: Engagement
of Prince Charles and
Lady Diana Spencer
announced
Jul 29: Royal wedding
seen by around 750m
TV viewers worldwide
Jun 21, 1982:
Prince William
born
Sep 15,
1984: Prince
Harry born
Apr 1987: Diana shakes hands
with AIDS patient – key moment
in fight against fear of disease
Dec 1992:
Separation of Charles
and Diana announced
1994-95: Charles and Diana
both publicly admit to extra-marital
affairs. Queen urges couple
to divorce after Diana
implies Charles is not
suited to be king
Aug 1996: Divorce finalised,
Diana loses HRH title
Jan 1997: In Angola, Diana calls
for campaign against landmines
Jun: Auction of her dresses raises
$4.5m for AIDS and cancer research
Aug 31: Diana,
boyfriend
Dodi al-Fayed
and driver
Henri Paul,
killed in car
crash in Paris
Sep 4: As sea of flowers
swells around Diana’s
London home, Queen bows
to mounting public pressure
to participate in mourning
Sep 6: Thousands line
streets for funeral at
Westminster Abbey.
Diana buried on island
in lake at Spencer
family’s ancestral home
professor who studies space governance at DePaul University
in Chicago.
“There is no way to answer the question until someone
does it,” Kellman said.
Asteroid water for sale
US-based Planetary Resources, a firm backed by Google
founder Larry Page and Virgin Group’s Richard Branson,
expects to be mining asteroids for water in the next 10 to
15 years.
The company will launch its first robotic probe mission
to scout asteroids for resource deposits in 2020, said Planetary
Resources’ Chief Executive Chris Lewicki.
“If you obtain a resource and bring it with you, it becomes
your property,” Lewicki said, citing recently passed
space laws in the US and Luxembourg that offer a legal
framework to ensure that private operators can be confident
about their rights over resources they extract in space.
“You can sell, keep or deliver (space resources) peacefully,”
Lewicki added.
The firm plans to extract oxygen and hydrogen, the components
of water, from asteroids to sell.
Lewicki is not planning on bringing those water resources
back to Earth; he wants market them in space, creating a
“gas station” for other exploration missions.
Hydrogen and oxygen, kept at a docking station orbiting
around Earth, will be used to fuel other space ships.
Martian appropriation
Other analysts are not sure if companies can just fly up
and start harvesting cosmic water, legally speaking.
The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 is the main international
standard for what companies and countries are allowed to
do when they aren’t on earth, said Jacob Haqq-Misra, director
of the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science, a Seattle-based
research group.
The treaty says that space is the “provenance of all mankind”.
Countries cannot claim “national appropriation” or
sovereignty over the Moon or other celestial bodies “by occupation
or by other means”, the treaty says.
This clause could prove tricky for private firms who want
to mine on asteroids or Mars, said Haqq-Misra, including
Planetary Resources and SpaceX, the private rocketship
company run by tech billionaire Elon Musk.
New laws
While the 1967 treaty is considered the global standard for
sharing space, individual countries have recently passed
laws allowing for property rights in the great beyond.
Luxembourg this month brought into force laws allowing
private firms to own resources extracted from outer space
in a move hailed by the nascent space mining industry.
Planetary Resources, for example, maintains an office
in the small European country better known for its finance
industry than space exploration.
From sea to space
Along with national legislation and the 1967 treaty, there are
other earthly regulations which could provide guidance for
managing extraterrestrial resources, legal experts said.
Under the United Nations’ Law of the Sea Convention
countries have exclusive rights to exploit natural resources
within around 322km of their coast line, but ships and planes
from other nations can freely pass through the waters.
This could serve as a template for space resource rights,
where companies have exclusive economic rights in a given
area around their landing point, but not ownership over an
entire asteroid or planet, lawyers said.
“It’s advantageous to work out a system where people
can acquire property rights enforceable through a legal process,”
Andrew Brehm, an attorney with Scopelitis, Garvin,
Light Hanson & Feary in Milwaukee.
“That being said, outer space is viewed in society as
something similar to the ocean, where there is a collective
interest,” Brehm said. •
As Syria war tightens, US and Russia military
hotlines humming
• Reuters, Qatar
Even as tensions between the United
States and Russia fester, there
is one surprising place where their
military-to-military contacts are
quietly weathering the storm: Syria.
It has been four months since US
President Donald Trump ordered
cruise missile strikes against a Syrian
airfield after an alleged chemical
weapons attack.
In June, the US military shot
down a Syrian fighter aircraft, the
first US downing of a manned jet
since 1999, and also shot down two
Iranian-made drones that threatened
US-led coalition forces.
All the while, US and Russian
military officials have been regularly
communicating, US officials said.
Some of the contacts are helping
draw a line on the map that separates
US, and Russian, backed forces
waging parallel campaigns on
Syria’s shrinking battlefields.
There is also a telephone hotline
linking the former Cold War foes’
air operations centres. US officials
said that there now are about 10 to
12 calls a day on the hotline, helping
keep US and Russian warplanes
apart as they support different
fighters on the ground.
Saudi renews Iraq ties in bid to distance Iran
• AFP, Baghdad
Influential Iraqi Shia cleric Moqtada
Sadr’s visit to Saudi Arabia at the end
of July signalled the Gulf Sunni powerhouse’s
ambition to distance its Iranian
foe from policy-making in Baghdad.
In the wake of former dictator Saddam
Hussein’s August 1990 invasion of
Kuwait, Riyadh severed relations with
Baghdad and closed its border posts
with its northern neighbour.
Ties have remained strained even after
Saddam’s ouster in the 2003 US-led
invasion of Iraq, since when successive
Shia-dominated governments in Baghdad
have stayed close to Tehran.
But Sadr’s rare visit to Saudi Arabia
came at the invitation of Riyadh, which
played up his meeting with Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman.
Two weeks later, Sadr followed up
by holding talks in Abu Dhabi with its
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed
Al-Nahyan, strongman of the United
Arab Emirates (UAE) and close ally of
his counterpart in the kingdom of Saudi
Arabia (KSA).
“Hosting Sadr in Riyadh and Abu
Dhabi shows regional rivals and particularly
Iran that KSA/UAE are capable of
tapping into and influencing intra-Shia
A picture shows two Russian S-400 Triumf S-400 Triumf missile system at the
Russian Hmeimim military base in Latakia province, in the northwest of Syria, on
December 16, 2015
AFP
That is no small task, given the
complexities of Syria’s civil war.
Moscow backs the Syrian government,
which also is aided by Iran
and Lebanon’s Hezbollah as it claws
back territory from Syrian rebels
and Islamic State fighters.
The US military is backing a collection
of Kurdish and Arab forces
focusing their firepower against IS,
part of a strategy to collapse the
group’s self-declared “caliphate” in
Syria and Iraq.
“The reality is we’ve worked
through some very hard problems
politics in Iraq,” said Fanar Haddad, a research
fellow at the Washington-based
Middle East Institute.
For the Gulf monarchies, “Sadr would
be a prize catch: authentically Shia-Iraqi,
distrustful if not disdainful of Iran and
with a genuinely organic and loyal grassroots
following.”
‘Pulling the strings’
The pro-Western Arab states of the Gulf
aim to show that Iran no longer holds a
monopoly on influencing policy in Baghdad,
according to Iraqi political scientist
Hashem al-Hashemi.
Tehran “prided itself on pulling all the
strings among the Shias (of Iraq) but it
seems that several strings are now beyond
its grasp, like that of the Sadrists”,
Hashemi said.
In June, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi, also a Shia, held meetings in
Saudi Arabia, four months after a visit to
Baghdad by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel
al-Jubeir, a first of its kind since 2003.
For Michael Knights, a researcher at
the Washington Institute, such interaction
with Riyadh could come at a price.
“Tehran will view the Saudi Arabian
engagement by Abadi and Sadr as
another reason that Abadi must be displaced
as premier in the 2018 elections,”
and, in general, we have found a
way to maintain the deconfliction
line (that separates US and Russian
areas of operation) and found a way
to continue our mission,” Lieutenant
General Jeffrey Harrigian, the
top US Air Force commander in the
Middle East, said in an interview.
As both sides scramble to capture
what is left of IS’s caliphate, the risk
of accidental contacts is growing.
“We have to negotiate, and
sometimes the phone calls are
tense. Because for us, this is about
protecting ourselves, our coalition
said Knights.
“And Iran will work hard behind the
scenes with money, media and weapons
to make that happen.”
But at the same time, Haddad
warned that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi
should not count too heavily on Sadr to
restore their influence in Baghdad at the
expense of Tehran.
“They should moderate their expectations
as to how much he will be willing
to deliver,” he cautioned.
Tehran has played a major political,
economic and military role in Baghdad
since the end of Saddam’s rule, during
which Shias were barred from powerful
posts and Shia-majority Iraq fought a
partners and destroying the enemy,”
Harrigian said, without commenting
on the volume of calls.
The risks of miscalculation came
into full view in June, when the US
shot down a Syrian Su-22 jet that
was preparing to fire on US-backed
forces on the ground.
US officials, speaking on condition
of anonymity, said those were
not the only aircraft in the area. As
the incident unfolded, two Russian
fighter jets looked on from above
and an American F-22 stealth aircraft
kept watch from an even higher
altitude, they said.
After the incident, Moscow publicly
warned it would consider any
planes flying west of the Euphrates
River to be targets. But the US military
kept flying in the area, and kept
talking with Russia.
Dividing line down the Euphrates
In Syria, US-backed forces are now
consumed with the battle to capture
IS’s former capital of Raqqa.
More than half the city has been retaken
from IS.
Officials said talks were underway
to extend a demarcation line
that has been separating US- and
Russian-backed fighters on the
ground as fighting pushes toward
Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud, centre right, meeting with Iraqi Prime
Minister Haidar al-Abadi, centre left in Mecca on June 19, 2017
AFP
1980-1988 war against Shia but non-Arab
Iran.
According to the Carnegie Middle
East Centre, Iranian exports, not including
fuel, tripled between 2008 and 2015
to reach $6.2bn.
Apart from military advisers on the
ground in Iraq, Iran also sponsors several
armed groups, in particular the paramilitary
Hashed al-Shaabi units that are
playing a key role in fighting the IS jihadist
group.
On his return from Saudi Arabia, Sadr
renewed calls for the dismantling of
armed groups, a stance which “makes
him particularly attractive to KSA/UAE”,
said Haddad.
IS’s last major Syrian stronghold,
the Deir al-Zor region.
The line runs in an irregular arc
from a point southwest of Tabqa
east to a point on the Euphrates
River and then down along the
Euphrates River in the direction of
Deir al-Zor, they said.
US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis,
during a visit to Jordan this week,
said the line was important as USand
Russian-backed forces come in
closer proximity of each other.
“We do not do that (communication)
with the (Syrian) regime. It
is with the Russians, is who we’re
dealing with,” Mattis said. “We
continue those procedures right on
down the Euphrates River Valley.”
Bisected by the Euphrates River,
Deir al-Zor and its oil resources are
critical to the Syrian state.
The province is largely in the
hands of IS, but has become a priority
for pro-Syrian forces. It also is
in the crosshairs of the US-backed
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
SDF spokesman Talal Silo said
last week that there would be an
SDF campaign towards Deir al-Zor
“in the near future,” though the
SDF was still deciding whether it
would be delayed until Raqqa was
fully taken from Islamic State. •
But the firebrand cleric, whose own
armed supporters fought fierce battles
against US and government forces in the
wake of the invasion, has steered clear of
openly condemning Hashed al-Shaabi,
which was set up at the request of the Shia
religious hierarchy in post-Saddam Iraq.
Arar starting point
Furthermore, Haddad stressed, a warming
in ties between Riyadh and Sadr
cannot be compared to close relations
between two states.
“We’re still a long way from Iraqi-Saudi
relations coming anywhere near the
depth or complexity of Iraqi-Iranian ties,”
he said.
But in a first decisive step, Riyadh and
Baghdad have announced plans to reopen
the Arar desert crossing, their main
border post and a potential alternative
to Iraq’s posts with Iran that are used for
most of its imports.
The border has been shut for most of
the past three decades to all travellers
except Iraqi Muslim pilgrims heading to
and from Mecca in western Saudi Arabia.
The announcement was made during
a joint inspection of the Arar post by
Iraqi and Saudi officials as well as Brett
McGurk, the senior US envoy to the international
coalition fighting IS. •