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# Financial Reporting, Financial Statement Analysis And Valuation 7th ed

-WAHLEN-09-1211-011.qxd:. 6/30/10 4:12 PM Page 884 Chapter 11 Risk-Adjusted Expected Rates of Return and the Dividends Valuation Approach Learning Objectives 1 Estimate risk-adjusted expected rates of return on equity capital, as well as weighted average costs of capital, which you will use to discount future payoffs to present value. 2 Understand the dividends valuation approach and its conceptual and practical strengths and weaknesses. 3 Develop practical valuation techniques to deal with the many difficult issues involved in estimating firm value: (a) dividends versus cash flows versus earnings, (b) cash flows to the investor versus cash flows reinvested in the firm, (c) the forecast horizon, and (d) continuing value. 4 Apply the dividends valuation techniques to estimate firm value using the present value of future dividends. 5 Develop techniques to assess the sensitivity of firm value estimates to key valuation parameters, such as discount rates and expected long-term growth rates. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Economic theory teaches that the value of an investment equals the present value of the projected future payoffs from the investment discounted at a rate that reflects the time value of money and the risk inherent in those expected payoffs. A general model for the present value of a security at time t0 (denoted as V 0 ) with an expected life of n future periods is as follows: 1 n V 0 ∑ Projected Future Payoffs t t =1 (1 Discount Rate) t In securities markets that are less than perfectly efficient, price does not necessarily equal value for every security at all times. Therefore, it can be very fruitful to search for and analyze securities that may have prices that have deviated temporarily from their fundamental 1 Throughout this chapter, t refers to accounting periods. The valuation process determines an estimate of firm value, denoted V 0 , in present value as of today, when t0. The period t1 refers to the first accounting period being discounted to present value. Period tn is the period of the expected final, or liquidating, payoff.

-WAHLEN-09-1211-011.qxd:. 6/30/10 4:12 PM Page 885 Introduction and Overview 885 values. When buying a security, the investor pays the security’s price and receives the security’s value. When selling a security, the investor receives the selling price and gives up the security’s value. Price is observable, but value is not; value must be estimated. Therefore, estimating the value of a security to make intelligent investment decisions is a common objective of financial statement analysis. Investors, analysts, investment bankers, corporate managers, and others engage in financial statement analysis and valuation to determine a reliable appraisal of the value of shares of common equity or the value of whole firms. The questions they typically address include the following: • What value do I think a share of common stock in a particular company is worth? • Comparing my estimate of value to the current price in the market, should I buy, sell, or hold a particular firm’s common shares? • What price should I assign to the initial public offering of a firm’s common shares? • What is a reasonable price to accept (or ask) as a seller or pay (or bid) as a buyer for the shares of a firm in a corporate merger or acquisition? Equity valuation models based on dividends, cash flows, and earnings have been the topic of many theoretical and empirical research studies in recent years. These studies provide many insights into valuation, but two very compelling general conclusions emerge and motivate the discussion and application of valuation models in this text: (1) share prices in the capital markets generally correlate closely with share value, but (2) share prices do not always equal share values, and temporary deviations of price from value occur. First, many empirical studies demonstrate that dividends, cash flows, and earnings-based valuation models generally provide significant explanatory power for share prices observed in the capital markets. 2 The results show that share value estimates determined from these valu - ation models exhibit high positive correlations with the stock prices observed in the capital markets. These correlations hold across different types of firms, during different periods of time, and across different countries. In the same vein, many empirical research studies also have shown that unexpected changes in earnings, dividends, and cash flows correlate closely with changes in stock prices. Second, a number of empirical research studies show that valuation models also help identify when share prices in the capital markets temporarily deviate from fundamental share values. Research results show that dividends, cash flows, and earnings-based valuation models help identify when shares are temporarily overpriced or underpriced, representing potentially profitable investment opportunities. For example, Exhibit 11.1 is a graphic depiction of results from a study by Frankel and Lee (1998) in which they sorted their sample of firms each year into five portfolios based on quintiles of their estimate of value (V) to share price (P). 3 Their findings show striking differences in the average 36-month stock returns earned by their portfolios. The highest value-to-price quintile portfolio generated significantly greater average returns than the lowest value-to-price portfolio. These results and similar results from a number of related studies should be very encouraging for those interested in developing fundamental forecasting and valuation skills for investment purposes. The six-step analysis and valuation framework that forms the structure of this book (Exhibit 1.1 in Chapter 1) is a logical sequence of steps for understanding the fundamentals of a business and for determining intelligent estimates of its value. First, we analyze the 2 For examples, see Stephen Penman and Theodore Sougiannis, “A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow, and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation,” Contemporary Accounting Research 15, no. 3 (Fall 1998), pp. 343–383, and Jennifer Francis, Per Olsson, and Dennis Oswald, “Comparing the Accuracy and Explainability of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates,” Journal of Accounting Research 38 (Spring 2000), pp. 45–70. 3 Richard Frankel and Charles Lee, “Accounting Valuation, Market Expectation, and Cross-Sectional Stock Returns,” Journal of Accounting and Economics 25, Issue 3 (1998), pp. 283–319.

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