Climate Action 2009-2010

TECHNOLOGY
Scientific evidence shows that, to put global emissions
on a trajectory that is compatible with respecting this
temperature ceiling, industrialised countries need to cut
their greenhouse gas emissions to 25-40 per cent below
1990 levels by 2020, while developing countries should
limit their rapid emissions growth to around 15–30 per
cent below projected business as usual levels in 2020.
Global emissions need to peak before 2020 and then be
cut by at least 50 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050.
The EU has shown leadership by committing
unconditionally to cut its emissions to at least 20 per
cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and is implementing the
climate and energy package. Moreover, it has committed
to scaling up its emission cut to 30 per cent on condition
that other industrialised countries agree to make
comparable reductions and that economically more
advanced developing countries contribute adequately to
a global deal.
PHOTOVOLTAICS: THE FUTURE HERE AND
NOW
Already massively available
We have the technology to begin the move to a sustainable
energy economy, here and now. In fact, it is already
happening; we have entered the renewable energy age,
and investors have flocked to the sector. In 2008, total
investment in the clean energy sector reached $150
billion, up from just $34 billion in 2004. Particularly in
the electric power sector, traditional energy giants are
staking more and more of their future on renewable
energy.
In Europe last year, more than 4.5 GW of photovoltaics (PV)
were installed, representing the third largest capacity
installations after wind and gas, and comparable – in
terms of installed capacity – to building, installing and
commissioning four nuclear reactors in a single year.
Worldwide, PV installations have grown at an impressive
pace over the last years, with market volumes more than
doubling year on year.
The cumulative installed capacity has been growing
at a rate of about 40 per cent over the last five years,
representing at the end of 2008 about 15 GW worldwide,
and 9.5 GW in the 27 member states of the European
Union alone.
Virtually limitless capacity
PV uses sunshine as its only fuel. The sun irradiates
every year on the continents about 2,000 times the
global primary energy demand, i.e. what the world
consumes as energy, in whatever form, every year. And
it is expected to shine for another 5 billion years.
Furthermore, the technology has no material or
industrial limitation. Most PV cells are today built from
silicon, the second most abundant material (after
oxygen) in the earth’s crust. Industry has also shown
in the last years a virtually limitless capacity to grow
rapidly and adapt to the soaring demand.
Best in class environmental payback
As for any technology, building a PV system requires
energy which is embodied in the system (also called grey
energy).
Under the effect of rapid technology advances, the
usage of energy intensive materials has been reduced
to very low levels. A solar panel today has typically an
environmental payback time between one and two years;
this means that panels that will deliver electricity for
more than their typical guaranteed lifetimes of 25 years
will restore the energy that was used to produce them
in less than two years. For some thin film technologies,
this payback time is already as low as seven months.
Furthermore, payback times are constantly being
reduced under relentless technology advances, making
PV one of the best in class technologies in terms of
environmental payback.
Available today at competitive and reducing
prices
Rapid technological evolution and steep price decline
have brought PV close to competitiveness in most regions.
With its high technology content, PV has demonstrated a
consistent price decrease over the last 30 years and has
still a huge cost reduction potential. Under the current
market development pace, more than a halving of the
price of PV can be expected every eight years.
This has immense implications, as the cost of PV
electricity is mainly dependent on the initial system
price. By 2020, the cost of PV electricity is expected to
be as low as ten euro cents per kWh for larger systems,
and well below 15 euro cents per kWh for residential
systems, making PV by then a highly competitive energy
source.
In Europe, PV is expected to become competitive in
2010 with residential prices in some southern regions.
By 2020, PV could become competitive for as much as
60–75 per cent of the EU electricity market.
A potent CO 2
saver
A recent study conducted by the European Photovoltaic
Industry Association (EPIA) indicated that, provided
the electrical network infrastructure evolves to
accommodate increasing penetration of intermittent
renewable sources, and a temporary appropriate market
support is available, PV could generate as much as 12
per cent of the total electricity demand in Europe by
2020. Such a penetration would enable savings in excess
of 200 million tonnes of CO 2
every year in Europe only. In
USA, the preliminary results of the study converge to the
same level of potential PV penetration by 2020.
“
PV could generate as much
as 12 per cent of the total
electricity demand in Europe
by 2020
“
Global demand for energy has been increasing at a
breathtaking pace, and this is particularly true in China,
India and other rapidly developing economies. This sharp
increase in world energy demand will require significant
investment in new power generating capacity, especially
in the developing world.
Another study conducted by EPIA reveals that in the
‘sunbelt countries’ with latitudes of less than 35 degrees
north or south, double digit market penetrations could
also be reached in the next decade without market
SOLAR ENERGY 87
VISIT: WWW.CLIMATEACTIONPROGRAMME.ORG