Climate Action 2016-2017

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM
TOWARDS THE FUTURE
The political momentum of the Paris Agreement
continued in 2016. The UN Secretary-General,
together with other leaders, encouraged
countries to speed up their formal signature of
the agreement (the intention to ratify), and then
to speedily undertake domestic processes of
different kinds to formally ratify the agreement.
These efforts have paid off. The double trigger
of reaching 55 ratifications and 55 per cent
of global emissions to be covered by those
countries ratifying necessary for the entry into
force of the Paris Agreement was reached in
October, and 30 days thereafter, on 4 November
the Agreement has formally entered into
force. This means that COP22 in Marrakech in
November 2016 is also the first meeting of the
Parties to the Paris Agreement.
The speed at which the Paris Agreement
has entered into force is unprecedented, and
indeed unique for a treaty of this importance. The
original Framework Convention (the UNFCCC)
took three years to enter into force, while the
Kyoto Protocol took eight years! So the rapid
entry into force demonstrates political will by
a large number of countries to continue the
momentum of the Paris Agreement, so that
implementation can start as soon as possible.
One of the unique features of the Paris
Agreement is that while it is a legally binding
requirement for Parties to present and implement
national climate plans (NDCs), the content – that
is, the ambition level of the mitigation, adaptation
and financing efforts – is up to the country to
decide (the reason why these plans are called
‘nationally determined’ contributions). So the
real success of the Paris Agreement will start if
leaders, together with their relevant ministers,
ensure at the domestic level that the NDCs
are supported by appropriate legislation, so
that proposals in the initial NDCs can be fully
implemented. This will require that leaders
engage all sectors, and many different state
and non-state actors at the domestic level to
reach the objectives included in the nationally
determined climate change plans.
MANAGING THE TEMPERATURE
But we also know that the overall ambition
level of the 188 NDCs presented in Paris is
not enough. Studies indicate that if the NDCs
are all implemented 100 per cent, the global
temperature increase will be approximately
between 2.7 to 3.1°C. While this is much better
than the business as usual 4-6°C, it is clearly
not enough. And it does assume 100 per cent
implementation, which is not going to be easy –
in part because many countries included actions
in their NDCs that will happen only on condition
ACTIONS, NOT RATIFICATIONS
The real success of the Paris Agreement will
not be measured according to the number
of countries that ratify, or the date of entry
into force. Rather, success will be about what
Parties to the Agreement actually do in terms of
reducing their emissions; adapting to climate
changes that are already with us; providing the
necessary financial resources to those in need;
and of course participation in the reporting and
monitoring mechanism so that the world will be
informed about what countries are doing.
of the availability of the necessary financial
resources. Moreover, the NDCs cover the period
up to 2030, and the assumptions about what
happens afterwards are unclear. Many experts
suggest that present NDCs are exploiting the
easy, ‘low hanging fruit’ options, and even if we
initially manage to keep the temperature rise on
a path to the 2.7-3.1 degree range, maintaining
those levels beyond 2030 will be increasingly
challenging.
And let us not forget that the goal agreed
in Paris is to keep temperature rise to well
below 2°C and if possible to 1.5°. Technically it
is possible to meet those goals. However, from
a social and political standpoint, the window
allowing us to reach them is closing rapidly.
Many experts indicate the increasing likelihood
of overshooting these temperature goals – at this
point it is not yet clear by how many degrees,
and for how many decades. The environmental,
social and economic impacts of overshoot are
likely to be significant, and therefore the Parties
to the Paris Agreement need to do all they can to
increase ambition now, because the longer they
wait the more difficult and expensive it will be.
Even if ambition is increased and implemented,
the chances of some overshoot beyond the 1.5/2°C
goals are real. More significantly, if the international
community is to manage global climate change
"Many experts indicate
the increasing likelihood
of overshooting these
temperature goals – at this
point it is not yet clear by
how many degrees."
in a responsible manner, it is imperative that
not only the ideal (100 per cent implementation
of NDCs) but indeed a broader range of risk
management scenarios be considered and
planned for. This would imply that in addition to
maximum levels of mitigation ambition, as well as
considerable adaptation efforts, the international
community must also consider techniques of
carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere
(or negative emissions) and possibly even other
climate geoengineering techniques as possible
complementary options.
For real success of the Paris Agreement, the
political momentum generated at Paris and
subsequently through the process of entry onto
force of the Agreement must be maintained and
transferred to the domestic level to encourage
implementation and to increase levels of
ambition as soon as possible. We can achieve
the ambitious objectives of the Agreement, but
this will not happen by itself. Continued political
pressure from leaders, combined with sustained
innovation and taking up of the essence of the
Paris Agreement by the private sector and other
non-state actors, will be essential.
Janos Pasztor is Senior Advisor to the UN
Secretary-General on climate change. He is
also Carnegie Council senior fellow and director
of the Carnegie Climate Geoengineering
Governance project. He has over 35 years
of work experience in the area of energy,
environment, climate change, and sustainable
development. In 2015, he worked as UN Assistant
Secretary-General for Climate Change in New
York. Pasztor was acting executive director for
Conservation (2014) and policy and science
director (2012-2014) at WWF International. He
directed the UNSG’s Climate Change Support
Team (2008-2010) and later was executive
secretary of the UNSG’s High-level Panel on
Global Sustainability (2010-2012). In 2007, he
directed the Geneva-based UN Environment
Management Group (EMG). During 1993-2006
he worked at the Climate Change Secretariat
(UNFCCC), initially in Geneva and later in Bonn.
The United Nations Secretariat (www.un.org)
is one of the main organs of the UN, organised
along departmental lines, with each department
or office having a distinct area of action
and responsibility. Offices and departments
coordinate with each other to ensure cohesion
as they carry out the day to day work of the UN
in offices and duty stations around the world. At
the head of the United Nations Secretariat is the
Secretary-General.
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