10 months ago

Clarksville- Main File

To better understand

To better understand this regional phenomenon, we analyzed the labor force participation rate. This broader measure is another indicator of labor market supply and demand and is defined as the share of population (age 16+) that is either working or actively seeking work. Across the country, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) has been steadily declining for the past 15 years. The trend continues with a net decline of over one percentage point between 2011 (64.8%) and 2016 (63.5%) nationwide. While this may not seem significant, one way to put this in perspective is that if the LFPR were at historic levels, another 10 million people would be in the workforce. Economists have attributed the low LFPR to two main factors. First, an unusually slow recovery which has caused some workers to become discouraged, or disengaged, and permanently drop out of the labor force—particularly the younger working-age. And secondly, the demographic shift of an aging workforce and retiring Baby Boomers. Combined, these factors have resulted in a structural shift in labor force dynamics. If the workers who make up the decline in labor force participation refuse to enter the workforce even as job prospects strengthen, there will be no sizable influx of workers as a robust recovery takes hold—which we are now seeing. Consequently, the unemployment rate will fall much more quickly than in a typical recovery. Conversely, a cyclical change would occur if these discouraged and disengaged workers can be drawn back into the labor market by a robust recovery; they will boost the labor force participation rate (since they would be actively looking for work). Tennessee has an even lower labor force participation rate than the nation. Clarksville’s and Montgomery County’s rate are exceptionally higher, nearly three percentage points, but trending downward like the nation. The rate amongst the 16 to 19 age cohort has dropped nearly 8 percentage points (most likely due to the recession) over the five year period, followed by the 25 to 44 age cohort (3 percentage points). Conversely, population has continued to grow at a fast rate in these age cohorts. 20 COMPREHENSIVE LABOR ANALYSIS: CLARKSVILLE-MONTGOMERY COUNTY

FIGURE 11: Labor Force Participation Rates, 2011-2016 2011 2016 96+95+88+91 93+92+86+89 68.5% 66.4% 67.9% 66.0% 62.7% 61.1% 64.8% 63.5% Clarksville Montgomery County Tennessee U.S. Source: Emsi Dataset 2017.3 using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS program FIGURE 12: Labor Force Participation Rate by Age Group, Montgomery County (2011-2016) 2011 2016 52+92+99+92+74+21+6 43+93+95+90+72+27+8 35.6% 77.3% 79.2% 75.3% 60.1% 22.3% 16 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 and over 6.3% Source: Emsi Dataset 2017.3 using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS program Labor Force 21

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