Holt 7525-9 S15_IT

Candidates and the Median Voter Model
A wide range of persons choose to become candidates for public office. But these candidates
seem to behave in similar patterns. Why do candidates who are often very different in political
opinions, backgrounds, personalities, etc. seem to behave so much alike? The median voter
model provides an explanation. The median voter model suggests that the median voter (the one
in the middle) must be captured to achieve a majority vote. If two candidates are on opposite
sides of an issue, or on the same side, the candidate closer to the median position will capture
the median voter and the majority of the votes.
Example 5: If Candidate Waffle realizes that Candidate Waver is positioned closer to the median
voter, Candidate Waffle will want to move closer to the median position. If Candidate Waver
realizes that Candidate Waffle is now positioned closer to the median voter, Candidate Waver will
want to move closer to the median position.
The median voter model predicts that a candidate will behave in certain predictable ways in his or
her pursuit of the median voter:
1. Aim for a middle-of-the-road position. A candidate who is too far from the middle-of-theroad
will lose the median voter to his or her opponent. A candidate may stake out a fairly
extreme position during the nomination process, in order to appeal to the most committed
members of the candidate’s party. But after receiving the nomination, the candidate will want
to move toward the median position.
2. Label his or her opponents as extremists. At the same time that Candidate Waffle tries to
move toward the middle, Candidate Waffle will try to portray Candidate Waver as on the
fringe, and out of touch with the desires of the average voter.
3. Adjust his or her positions in response to polls. Candidates will take polls to try to
determine what the median voter wants. Candidates may have to change their positions on
issues in order to get more in tune with the median voter.
4. Speak in general rather than specific terms. To appeal to the median voter, candidates will
speak in general terms in favor of goals that the median voter will support (e.g. a strong
economy, efficient government, better education, crime reduction, etc.). Candidates will try to
avoid revealing specific details about how they might plan to accomplish these popular goals
(e.g. free trade agreements, closure of redundant military bases, tuition vouchers, construction
of new prisons, etc.), to avoid offending voters who might disagree with the specifics.
Policies favored by the median voter (who likely will be ill-informed on most issues) will not
necessarily be the most economically efficient policies. The candidates’ pursuit of the median
voter may result in government failure.
Elected Officials
Once a candidate is elected to public office, what will he or she do? An elected official may have
a strong desire to support policies that will benefit the general public by increasing economic
efficiency or by promoting long term economic growth. But will an elected official actually support
such policies?
Elected Officials and Short Run Focus
Elected officials tend to have a strong desire to remain elected officials. Thus, an elected official
will tend to focus on winning the next election. An elected official will naturally support policies
that improve his or her chances of winning the next election, and will naturally oppose policies
that harm his or her chances of winning the next election. Thus, an elected official will tend to
support policies that yield benefits in the short run (before the next election) and impose costs in
the long run (after the next election). This will be true even if the long run costs of the policies
exceed the short run benefits. Likewise, an elected official will tend to oppose policies that impose
costs in the short run and yield benefits in the long run. This will be true even if the long run
benefits of the policies exceed the short run costs.
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28 - 3 Public Choice and Government Failure