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Appendix: Book Review

Appendix: Book Review – “The Myth of the Rational Voter” In 2007, economist Bryan Caplan published “The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies”. In this book, Caplan asserts that voters are not just rationally ignorant, but are systematically biased in favor of mistaken views. In theory, policies that are harmful to the best interest of society should not occur in a democracy. The majority of voters would not vote in favor of socially harmful policies, nor would they vote in favor of elected officials who enacted socially harmful policies. Yet socially harmful policies (e.g. trade restrictions) often do occur in democracies. Typically, these socially harmful policies have been blamed on rational voter ignorance and the influence of special-interest groups. But Caplan asserts that democracy delivers socially harmful policies because it gives the voters what they want. Voters are worse than ignorant. They are irrational. They embrace a number of economic misconceptions and thus consistently favor economic policies that are harmful to the best interest of society. Voter ignorance has been recognized for decades. It no longer shocks voter analysts that over half of Americans cannot name their congressional representative, or that voters believe that foreign aid consumes a much larger share of the federal budget than it actually does. But economists have assumed that voter ignorance is not necessarily harmful. It is assumed that voters will not make systematic errors, but rather random errors. The random errors of the uninformed voters will cancel each other out and the few informed voters will determine the outcome. Example 13: A vote is being held on an economic policy. Policy X is a good policy and Policy Y is a bad policy. Assume that 98% of voters are uninformed and 2% are well-informed. The uninformed voters are not biased toward one policy or the other and thus tend to vote randomly. Half of the uninformed voters vote for Policy X and half vote for Policy Y. Thus, each policy has received 49% of the total vote. Then the well-informed voters vote. They will all vote in favor of the good policy (Policy X). Thus, the good policy will win by a 51% to 49% majority. And the fact that 98% of the voters were uninformed has done no harm. But what if the majority of voters are not just uninformed, but are systematically biased in favor of mistaken views? Then the majority of voters may vote in favor of socially harmful policies and in favor of elected officials who enact socially harmful policies. This is precisely what happens, according to Caplan. According to Caplan, the vast majority of voters are noneconomists, and noneconomists are biased toward four common misconceptions: 1. Antimarket bias. This is a tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of the market mechanism. Noneconomists fail to comprehend that profit-seeking businesses in a competitive market will generally produce socially beneficial outcomes. Economists recognize that the goal of profit-maximization causes firms to be responsive to consumer demand and to produce efficiently. Noneconomists tend to see profits as simply a transfer to the businesses and fail to see the beneficial incentives that profits provide. Noneconomists also fail to comprehend how market-determined prices efficiently allocate resources and goods. They tend to see monopoly and conspiracy behind price movements. 2. Antiforeign bias. This is the tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of interaction with foreigners. Noneconomists usually can comprehend the mutual benefits of specialization and trade on a local or national level. But when the trade crosses national boundaries, noneconomists assume that trade is a zero-sum game. If Japan is benefiting by selling Toyotas to America, America must be losing. 3. Make-work bias. This is the tendency to underestimate the economic benefits of conserving labor. Noneconomists tend to have mixed feelings about technological advances that destroy jobs and to absolutely oppose downsizing and outsourcing. Economists recognize that labor is a valuable limited resource and that society benefits from conserving labor. The misconception that job destruction is harmful rests on the idea that employment, not production, is the source of prosperity. (For more on job destruction and economic growth, see Chapter 4.) FOR REVIEW ONLY - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION Public Choice and Government Failure 28 - 8

4. Pessimistic bias. This is the tendency to overestimate the severity of economic problems and underestimate the (recent) past, present, and future performance of the economy. Noneconomists tend to exaggerate the threat posed by current economic problems, e.g. recession, budget deficits, rising gasoline prices, etc. Noneconomists also tend to be pessimistic overall, failing to recognize the magnitude of past economic improvements and the strong likelihood that the positive trend will continue. Example 14A: When noneconomists are asked how much the standard of living has increased since 1900, the average answer is 50 percent. The actual increase is much greater, about 8-fold. Example 14B: When noneconomists are asked what will happen to the standard of living in the next generation, they tend to predict economic stagnation. Given these four misconceptions, it is not surprising that democracies often choose bad policies. Caplan asserts that noneconomists are more rational when they make choices as consumers than when they make choices as voters. Caplan suggests that more economic decisions should be left to the market instead of the political process. Study Guide for Chapter 28 Chapter Summary for Chapter 28 In the U.S., the basic economic problem of scarcity is dealt with mainly through private markets. Private markets operate through the interactions of consumers and producers. Government action is necessary to establish the legal environment that allows private markets to operate. Many production and distribution decisions in the U.S. economy are made on a collective basis in the public sector (by government). Public choice theory applies economic principles to public sector decision making. Government failure occurs when government action results in a less efficient allocation of resources. The primary motivation of participants in the public sector is assumed to be self-interest. Voters cannot vote for the exact political policies that they favor. Low voter turnout occurs because many potential voters see the costs of voting as greater than the benefits. It is very unlikely that one person’s vote will decide the outcome of an election. It is rational to remain ignorant if the cost of gaining information is greater than the benefit of having the information. Most voters will not be well-informed due to rational voter ignorance. The median voter model suggests that the median voter must be captured to achieve a majority vote. Thus, a candidate will; (1) aim for a middle-of-the-road position, (2) label his or her opponents as extremists, (3) adjust his or her positions in response to polls, and (4) speak in general rather than specific terms. Elected officials will tend to have a short run focus. Elected officials will tend to support policies that yield benefits in the short run and impose costs in the long run. Elected officials will tend to oppose policies that impose costs in the short run and yield benefits in the long run. Elected officials will tend to be responsive to special-interest groups. The influence of specialinterest groups is increased by; (1) low voter turnout, (2) rational ignorance, and (3) lobbying. Because of special-interest group influence, elected officials will tend to favor policies that yield concentrated benefits and impose dispersed costs, and will tend to oppose policies that impose concentrated costs and yield dispersed benefits. A congressional district can be a special-interest group. Legislators often trade votes in order to pass legislation beneficial to their own districts. This vote trading is called logrolling. Logrolling often leads to “pork barrel” legislation. FOR REVIEW ONLY - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION The actual functioning of government is usually through government bureaus. Government bureaus are likely to be very inefficient because; (1) they have no profit motive, (2) they have no owner, (3) they usually face no competition, and (4) they seek to grow. 28 - 9 Public Choice and Government Failure

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    PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS JEFF HOLT S

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    Principles of Economics, 6th Editio

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    16. Study Guide for Chapter 7 17. C

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    11. Appendix: Book Review - “The

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    20. Appendix: The NCAA Cartel 21. S

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    Introduction: A Brief History of U.

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    In the twentieth century, per capit

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    Appendix: The 35 Largest National E

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    Multiple Choice: ___ 1. The Jamesto

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    2. Describe the economic cost of th

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    Chapter 1 Scarcity and Choices The

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    Example 5B: At the end of 1982, the

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    Example 11: When Cindy quits her jo

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    consequences may result in failure

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    An upward sloping curve (as in Exam

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    In making decisions, humans tend to

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    5. ______________________ _________

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    ___ 13. If the value of one variabl

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    Y Point X Y A 0 1 B 3 3 C 6 5 D 9 7

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    Chapter 2 Trade and Economic System

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    Example 4B: The following quantitie

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    1. An increase in the quantity of r

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    3. For whom to produce? This is det

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    The graph below illustrates the shi

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    The two primary economic systems ar

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    ___ 12. The capitalist vision sees

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    ___ 25. According to the book “Ca

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    Chapter 3 Demand, Supply, and Equil

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    . For inferior goods, income and de

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    The same information can be placed

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    Not only does a free market elimina

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    $7 - 6 - 5 - S 3 S1 S 2 Price 4 - 3

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    Example 17: The graph below illustr

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    Questions for Chapter 3 Fill-in-the

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    ___ 12. Assuming a market originall

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    $8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - Price 4 - 3 - 2 -

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    Chapter 4 Inflation and Unemploymen

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    Computing the Rate of Inflation The

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    Full Employment Though unemployment

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    3. Cyclical unemployment - due to d

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    During the Great Depression, the ec

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    Appendix: Think Like an Economist -

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    Answer questions 8. and 9. based on

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    ___ 25. The extension of unemployme

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    Chapter 5 Measuring Total Output: G

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    5. Leisure. Leisure time is by defi

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    The U.S. is a high per capita GDP c

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    Example 17: In “An International

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    The simple circular flow diagram be

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    ___ 3. Which of the following would

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    2. Explain what nonproduction trans

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    Chapter 6 The Aggregate Market The

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    Example 2C: Assume the same facts a

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    Example 5B: The price of crude oil

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    Price Level Real GDP SRAS AD 2 AD 1

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    Appendix: Why the Aggregate Demand

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    ___ 3. DEF Company can invest in ne

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    2. List and explain the two factors

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    Chapter 7 Classical Economic Theory

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    Notice that the investment demand c

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    Long-Run Equilibrium If Real GDP is

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    Example 6B: When the economy is in

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    Laissez-faire If the economy is sel

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    ___ 5. According to Say’s Law: a.

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    3. On the graph below, draw an aggr

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    Chapter 8 Keynesian Economic Theory

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    Example 2B: The graph below illustr

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    Example 5: Assume that the table be

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    Notice on the graph on the previous

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    According to Keynesian theory, a ch

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    “The General Theory” also inclu

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    ___ 8. If the consumption function

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    3. If the MPC is .667, and investme

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    Chapter 9 Fiscal Policy The basic e

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    Keynesian Fiscal Policy Theory and

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    Example 5A: The federal government

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    The Laffer Curve What will happen t

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    Appendix: The Importance of Incenti

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    ___ 4. A decrease in government exp

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    2. Explain what automatic stabilize

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    Chapter 10 Money, Money Creation, a

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    Example 4B: The castaways on Gillig

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    Looking at the balance sheet below,

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    Demand-side One-shot Inflation Exam

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    4. Inflation increases uncertainty

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    life; it came into existence not by

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    calculated by using the potential d

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    ___ 12. If the required-reserve rat

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    4. Referring to the balance sheet f

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    Chapter 11 The Federal Reserve Syst

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    5. After Bank X sells the $300,000

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    Low Mortgage Interest Rates Mortgag

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    Relaxed Standards for Mortgage Loan

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    The Bursting of the Housing Bubble

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    On February 17, 2009, the federal g

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    Fed policies caused short-term inte

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    ___ 10. The Fed’s most important

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    ___ 25. In response to the recessio

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    Chapter 12 Monetary Policy The basi

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    2. A change in aggregate demand (AD

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    Monetarist Transmission Mechanism C

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    3. Borrowers do not have to seek ou

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    Appendix: Book Review - “The Age

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    Questions for Chapter 12 Fill-in-th

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    ___ 16. The primary source of incom

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    7. According to Alan Greenspan, wha

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    Chapter 13 Taxes, Deficits, and the

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    Example 5: In 2015, Taxpayer A had

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    of $5 and a quantity of 10 units. T

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    The complexity of the tax law also

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    the current government spending and

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    cut of 1964. The top rate was lower

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    ___ 6. Federal excise taxes: a. are

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    3. How would eliminating the loopho

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    Chapter 14 Economic Growth The basi

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    2. Labor. Labor can contribute to e

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    estricting international trade (e.g

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    An improvement in technology (e.g.

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    The table below shows the economic

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    will increase both Real GDP and per

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    ___ 8. Which of the following is co

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    ___ 26. The opinion that economic g

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    Chapter 15 Less Developed Countries

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    Example 8: Countries A, B, C, and D

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    Obstacles to Economic Development f

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    c. Restrictions on international tr

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    Appendix: Book Review - “The Powe

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    Example 25: In Brazil, about half t

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    Study Guide for Chapter 15 Chapter

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    ___ 13. Among the counterproductive

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    4. List four ways that governments

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    Chapter 16 International Trade The

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    Other Benefits of Free Internationa

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    Example 6: The graph below illustra

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    competitive disadvantage. But dumpi

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    is only 25% as productive as before

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    Smith was skeptical of government a

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    ___ 4. For Country X, what is the o

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    ___ 18. Frédéric Bastiat’s “P

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    4. On the graph below: (1) What is

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    Chapter 17 Elasticity We are often

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    Example 4A: What is price elasticit

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    Example 5A: Gertie’s Gas and Go i

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    Example 10A: When the price of Good

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    Example 13B: On the graph below, su

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    $7 - 6 - 5 - Price 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 -

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    In the long run, would the deadweig

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    ___ 7. The factors that determine w

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    3. a. Which price (or prices) from

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    Chapter 18 Utility The basic econom

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    Nonetheless, society generally assu

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    Example 9: Capital City operates a

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    Marginal rate of substitution - the

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    The diamond-water paradox is the ob

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    Complete the table below to answer

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    4. The graph below shows indifferen

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    Chapter 19 The Firm The basic econo

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    than contributing to team productio

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    1. Difficulty in raising large amou

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    Corporations also use self-financin

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    Example 24: A blacksmith who produc

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    For financing needs, proprietorship

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    ___ 13. Corporations: a. are comple

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    5. List two things that the absence

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    Chapter 20 Production and Costs The

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    In Example 5B, Birdwell finds that

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    variable cost initially decreases,

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    Quantity TC MC AFC AVC ATC 0 240 X

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    If the scale of operation is increa

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    average total cost. Average fixed c

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    ___ 11. Concerning the cost curves:

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    5. Complete the following cost tabl

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    Chapter 21 Perfect Competition The

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    Even though a perfect competitor ca

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    Example 6C: This example builds on

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    At what price will there be neither

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    Appendix: Perfect Competition in th

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    Multiple Choice: ___ 1. A perfect c

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    ___ 17. Perfect competition: a. req

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    Answers for Chapter 21 Fill-in-the-

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    Chapter 22 Monopoly Of the four mar

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    3. Exclusive ownership of an essent

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    maximizing quantity (4 units) creat

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    $22 - 20 - 18 - 16 - 14 - Deadweigh

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    2. Negotiating, beginning at a high

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    Legal barriers are created by gover

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    ___ 8. The slope of the demand curv

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    Price Quantity 3. List some of the

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    Chapter 23 Monopolistic Competition

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    For Percomp (the perfect competitor

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    Example 7A: The graph below represe

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    Example 9: The Organization of the

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    Example 12 illustrates the dilemma

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    its current price and quantity. The

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    ___ 14. Game theory: a. is a method

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    Answers for Chapter 23 Fill-in-the-

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    Chapter 24 Factor Markets The basic

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    $ $240 - 200 - 160 - 120 - 80 - 40

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    Since producers will attempt to equ

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    2. Differences in nonmoney aspects

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    were his strikeouts, walks, and hom

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    ___ 3. To maximize profits, a produ

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    ___ 19. According to the book, “M

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    Multiple Choice: 1. a. 8. c. 15. d.

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    Chapter 25 Labor Unions The primary

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  • Page 451 and 452: ___ 5. What government policy would
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  • Page 457 and 458: Candidates and the Median Voter Mod
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  • Page 479 and 480: ___ 10. The public interest theory
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    How is this story an analogy for th

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    ___ 2. In 2013, the Lowest Income 6

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    Problems: 1. Explain the two primar

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    Absolute advantage - when one natio

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    Fiat money - money by government de

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    Nonrivalrous good - a good for whic

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    Absolute advantage, 16-9 Absolute e

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    “Company town”, 25-6 Comparativ

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    Eli Lilly and Company, 22-1 Emergen

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    Houston, Texas, 15-10 Human capital

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    Market, 3-1, 3-8-9 Market basket, 4

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    Political bias, 9-4, 12-7 Political

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    Short run production, 20-2-3 Short-

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    Upturns, 9-4 USDA, 27-9, 30-1-2, 30

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