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The Housing Bubble and the Subsequent Recession<br />

The economy entered into a recession (the Great Recession) in December of 2007. Real GDP<br />

was flat in 2008 and decreased by 2.9% in 2009. Real GDP grew slowly, averaging slightly over<br />

2% annual growth, from 2010 through 2013. The unemployment rate increased from 4.7% in<br />

November of 2007 to 10.0% in October of 2009. Though the recession officially ended in June of<br />

2009, the unemployment rate was still at 9.0% in September of 2011 and did not fall below 7%<br />

until December of 2013. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached a peak of 14,279.96<br />

on October 11, 2007, and then fell to 6,440.08 on March 9, 2009, a drop of almost 55% from the<br />

peak. The federal budget deficit increased from $161 billion in 2007 to $459 billion in 2008 and<br />

then to $1,413 billion in 2009. The deficit was $1,294 billion in 2010, $1,300 billion in 2011,<br />

$1,087 billion in 2012, $680 billion in 2013, and $483 billion in 2014.<br />

Most economists agree that the primary cause of the recession was the bursting of the housing<br />

bubble and the subsequent credit crisis. Home prices nationwide were relatively flat throughout<br />

most of the 1990s. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, real home prices increased by about<br />

7.6% from July of 1990 to July of 1996.<br />

Then real home prices began a rapid increase, peaking in July of 2006, at over 121% higher than<br />

they had been in July of 1996. By July of 2012, home prices had decreased by over 27% from<br />

their 2006 peak. However, home prices were still 60% higher than they had been in July of 1996.<br />

(See Example 5 below.) Why did the housing bubble arise and why did its bursting cause a credit<br />

crisis leading to a severe recession? The four primary causes of the housing bubble and the<br />

credit crisis arising from the bursting of the housing bubble are discussed in this chapter.<br />

Example 5: The graph below illustrates the Case-Shiller Index of home prices for the years from<br />

1990 to 2012.<br />

Case-<br />

Shiller<br />

Index<br />

190 -<br />

170 -<br />

150 -<br />

130 -<br />

110 -<br />

90 -<br />

70 -<br />

z<br />

. . . .<br />

.<br />

0 <br />

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12<br />

Years (July)<br />

FOR REVIEW ONLY - NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION<br />

.<br />

.<br />

.<br />

.<br />

.<br />

.<br />

.<br />

The Federal Reserve System 11 - 4

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