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6 months ago

130218_Luxor-Egypt SECAP Final

Main climate trends

Main climate trends Temperature In terms of climate projection (Figure 20), it shows the percentage change in average annual temperature by 2100 from the baseline climate of 1960-1990, averaged over 21 CMIP3 models 48 . It is clear that the projected temperature increases over the city of Luxor – Governorate of Luxor by around 3°C to 3.5°C. Rainfall Regarding climate projection (Figure 21), it illustrates the percentage change in average annual precipitation by 2100 from the baseline climate period of 1960-1990, averaged over 21 CMIP3 models. It indicates that Egypt is projected to experience a decrease in precipitation, which is seen as common with the wider Mediterranean and the majority of the Middle East. In the city of Luxor, the decrease of -5% to - 10% is projected, whereas it is projected -10% to -20% in the city Hurghada. Climate change weather scenarios The CC World Weather Gen generates the climate change weather scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080 for worldwide locations to be used in building performance simulation programs. It’s based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report 58 . Table 11: Scenario Day (1 July) – City of Luxor Year Dry-bulb Temperature °C Relative Humidity % Horizontal Radiation W/m 2 Wind Speed % 1980 - 2003 39.2 15 612 2.6 2050 42.6 13 607 2.5 2080 45 12 604 2.5 58 Climate Change World Weather File Generator for World-Wide Weather Data – CCWorldWeatherGen – available at: http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/ 94

a. Dry-bulb temperature (°C) scenarios b. Relative humidity (%) scenarios 42.6 45 15 13 12 39.2 Luxor 1980-2003 Luxor 2050 Luxor 2080 Luxor 1980-2003 Luxor 2050 Luxor 2080 Figure 22: Climate scenarios for the city of Luxor 1980-2003, 2050 & 2080 612 2.6 607 604 2.5 2.5 Luxor 1980- 2003 Luxor 2050 Luxor 2080 Luxor 1980-2003 Luxor 2050 Luxor 2080 a. G Horizontal Radiation (W/m 2 ) scenarios b. Wind speed scenarios Figure 23: Climate scenarios for the city of Luxor 1980-2003, 2050 & 2080 Appendix 1 presents the scenarios Day 1 July for the city of Luxor in year 1980-2003, 2050 and 2080. The scenarios show that the increase will be manifested in temperature by 2050 and 2080, whereas the relative humidity, horizontal radiation, and wind speed will witness a decrease by 2050 and 2080 49 . Climate change risks – Luxor Climate change impact in the city of Luxor will be strong in different sectors: agriculture, water, tourism, urban and health. Table 12 below describes these risks in detail. 95

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